Climate change and security in the Israeli–Palestinian context
| DOI | 10.1177/0022343311427575 |
| Date | 01 January 2012 |
| Published date | 01 January 2012 |
| Author | Gad Rosenthal,Eran Feitelson,Abdelrahman Tamimi |
| Subject Matter | Research Articles |
Climate change and security in the Israeli–
Palestinian context
Eran Feitelson
Hebrew University of Jerusalem
Abdelrahman Tamimi
Palestinian Hydrology Group for Water and Environmental Resources Development
Gad Rosenthal
Kivun Consulting
Abstract
The Middle East is among the least stable and most fragile regions. It is not surprising, therefore, that concerns have
been raised regarding the potential implications of climate change. This article critically examines the potential inter-
actions between climate change and conflict in the Israeli–Palestinian case. Based on a review of the possible effects of
climate change, water is identified as the main issue which may be affected, and it also has transboundary implica-
tions. We illustrate the potential implications of reduced freshwater availability by assessing the ability to supply
normative domestic water needs under rapid population growth scenarios, including return of refugees. In addition,
the ability to supply environmental needs and the needs of peripheral farmers under extremely reduced availability
scenarios is examined. The normative domestic demand in Israel and the West Bank can be supplied on the basis of
natural resources, though re-allocation of water from Israel to the Palestinians is necessary. The Gaza Strip cannot
supply the normative domestic needs under any scenario and hence requires immediate augmentation, regardless of
climate change. Desalination can supply Gaza’s needs and augment water resources in Israel and the West Bank,
thereby partially decoupling domestic and agricultural use from climate. Thus, it is unlikely that climate change will
directly affect the conflict. However, framing water as a security issue, along with the potential for furthering such
securitization with reference to climate change, may adversely affect the readiness of the parties to take adaptive mea-
sures and lead them to rigidify their negotiating positions. Possible effects of climate change on other regional players,
particularly Egypt and Jordan, may have indirect effects on the Israeli–Palestinian scene. But this hypothesis requires
further study.
Keywords
climate change, Israel, Middle East, Palestine, water
Introduction
As fears of the destabilizing effects mount, climate
change is increasingly being referred to as a security issue.
In 2009 the UN General Assembly adopted a non-
binding resolution on climate change as an international
security problem (A/Res/63/281 11 June). However,
how climate change affects security has not been made
clear. Barnett & Adger (2007) suggest that such effects
may be an outcome of reduced access to natural
resources that sustain livelihoods or of undermining
states’ capacity to provide opportunities and services.
Corresponding author:
msfeitel@mscc.huji.ac.il
Journal of Peace Research
49(1) 241–257
ªThe Author(s) 2012
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DOI: 10.1177/0022343311427575
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But they also note that the extent to which these factors
may actually lead to violence requires empirical research.
The Middle East is among the least stable and most
fragile regions. The Israeli–Arab conflict has assumed
international dimensions and receives widespread atten-
tion, well beyond the realm of the parties which are at
the core of the conflict – Israelis and Palestinians. It is
not surprising, therefore, that concerns have been raised
about the potential deleterious effects of climate change
in the MiddleEast (Brown & Crawford,2009; Trondalen,
2009).
The purpose of this article is to critically examine the
extent to which climate change may aggravate the
Israeli–Palestinian conflict. To this end we take a four-
stage approach. First we review the possible effects of
climate change on the Israeli–Palestian area. Then we
search for those issues that are acute enough to lead a
party to take action that it would not take otherwise and
which may also impact the other party – notably water.
To assess the extent to which climate change may reduce
access to water, we conduct a scenario analysis. We
examine whether water resources can supply the needs
of the population under extreme climate change and
population growth scenarios. These include a partial
return of Palestinian refugees to the area west of the
Jordan. We assess the extent to which the populations’
welfare or livelihoods are vulnerable to disruptions due
to the effects of climate change on water availability.
In the fourth stage, we discuss three possible second-
order aspects that go beyond the scope of Barnett &
Adger’s study (2007) – how greater climate uncertainty
may affect the negotiating positions of the parties,
the possible constraints of security considerations on the
ability to implement adaptive policies, and the possible
implications of regional climate-change effects.
Implications of climate change
Figure 1 depicts the approach used to identify the effects
of climate change on the Israeli–Palestinian region.
The regional effects of climate change were first outlined
on the basis of IPCC (2007). A wide-ranging literature
survey was conducted to identify the main local effects,
and an attempt was made to assess the degree of consen-
sus regarding the direction and magnitude of these
effects. Table I shows that there is little agreement.
The key variables identified in Figure 1 for assessing
the local implications of global climate change are
sea-level rise and regional climate changes, mainly in pre-
cipitation patterns. While a warming trend has been
observed in the last few decades (Saaroni, Ziv & Alpert,
2003; Zhang et al., 2005), the trends in precipitation are
ambiguous due to the difficulties inherent in down-
scaling global circulation models (Alpert et al., 2008;
Golan-Engelko & Bar Or, 2008). But the regional cli-
matic models have largely underestimated precipitation
in Israel and Jordan (Black, 2009). The scenario analyses
that have been prepared for the Israeli–Palestinian region
using such models have suggested that precipitation lev-
els may decrease and that extreme events may rise (Alpert
et al., 2008; Black, 2009; Sowers, Vengosh & Weinthal,
2011). These effects vary, however, by scenario.
Thus, while the IPCC A2 scenario leads to significant
reduction in average precipitation, the effects of the B2
scenario on average rainfall is unclear (Alpert et al.,
2008).
1
However, the most important variable in this region
from a water-management perspective is groundwater
recharge. Groundwater constitutes the main interannual
storage, which is crucial for addressing the multi-year
droughts to which semi-arid and arid regions are prone
(Amiran, 1995). Groundwater recharge and surface
flows are influenced by the intensity, duration, fre-
quency, and timing of precipitation events (USEPA,
1990). These can vary significantly and are non-linear
with respect to average levels of precipitation. Moreover,
recharge rates and stormwater runoff are affected by soil
types and local variations (Yair, 1994; Yair & Kossovsky,
2002). As a result, climate change impacts on ground-
water are not well understood worldwide (Kundzewicz
et al., 2007). In a review of climate change effects on
Israel, Golan-Engelko & Bar Or (2008) conclude that
the currently available climate-related models are not
detailed enough to allow for assessments of the impacts
of climate change on rate of groundwater recharge.
The only effect which is fairly certain is that sea-level
rise will lead to further intrusion of seawater into the
already over-utilized coastal aquifer thereby causing a
potential movement of the base of the aquifer basin
(Golan-Engelko & Bar Or, 2008; Sowers, Vengosh &
Weinthal, 2011). Melloul & Collins (2006) estimate
that the storage capacity of this aquifer will diminish
by 16.3 million cubic meters (MCM) per 1 km of coast
for a 50 cm rise in sea level. While surface runoff may
increase and enhance the flows into the sea of Galillee,
higher temperatures may increase evaporation from the
lake and reduce spring flows. This will lead to algae
blooms that will adversely affect the water quality in
1
Both scenarios suggest a greater frequency of droughts but differ in
the extent to which these will be offset by rainy years.
242 journal of PEACE RESEARCH 49(1)
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