Climate change, violent conflict and local institutions in Kenya’s drylands
| Date | 01 January 2012 |
| DOI | 10.1177/0022343311427344 |
| Published date | 01 January 2012 |
| Subject Matter | Research Articles |
Climate change, violent conflict and local
institutions in Kenya’s drylands
Wario R Adano
Max Planck Institute for Social Anthropology, Halle/Saale
Ton Dietz
African Studies Centre, Leiden
Karen Witsenburg
Both ENDS, Amsterdam & Max Planck Institute for Social Anthropology, Halle/Saale
Fred Zaal
Royal Tropical Institute, Amsterdam
Abstract
Many regions that are endowed with scarce natural resources such as arable land and water, and which are remote
from a central government, suffer from violence and ethnic strife. A number of studies have looked at the conver-
gence of economic, political and ecological marginality in several African countries. However, there is limited empiri-
cal study on the role of violence in pastoral livelihoods across ecological and geographical locations. Yet, case studies
focusing on livelihood and poverty issues could inform us about violent behaviour as collective action or as individual
decisions, and to what extent such decisions are informed or explained by specific climatic conditions. Several case
studies point out that violence is indeed an enacted behaviour, rooted in culture and an accepted form of interaction.
This article critically discusses the relevance of geographical and climatic parameters in explaining the connection
between poverty and violent conflicts in Kenya’s pastoral areas. These issues are considered vis-a
`-vis the role insti-
tutional arrangements play in preventing violent conflict over natural resources from occurring or getting out of
hand. The article uses long-term historical data, archival information and a number of fieldwork sources. The results
indicate that the context of violence does not deny its agency in explanation of conflicts, but the institutional set-up
may ultimately explain the occurrence of the resource curse.
Keywords
climate change, Kenya’s drylands, local institutions, resource curse, resource scarcity, violent conflict
Natural resource wealth, climate change and
violent conflict
This article looks at the possible links between environ-
mental factors and collective behaviour. A direct causal
link between society and the physical environment has
long been dismissed as physical determinism (Cole,
1996), because there is no direct relationship between,
for instance, economic performance and the natural
resource base. Yet, others have alluded to a strong
relationship between the supply of environmental
resources and the occurrence of violent conflict
(Homer-Dixon, 1999; Kahl, 2006). These divergent
views about the connection between scarcity and conflict
indicate the complex issues that have continued to draw
out academic debate (Collier & Hoeffler, 1998;
Corresponding author:
roba@eth.mpg.de
Journal of Peace Research
49(1) 65–80
ªThe Author(s) 2012
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DOI: 10.1177/0022343311427344
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ESEARCH
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de Soysa, 2002; Gleditsch, 1998; Homer-Dixon, 1999).
Until now the mainstream thinking has been that
scarcity of resources creates war and conflict (Kaplan,
1994; Homer-Dixon, 1999). However, resource scar-
city might actually foster cooperation over resources
rather than trigger conflict (see also Buhaug, Gleditsch
& Theisen, 2008).
The Human Development Report 2007/2008 most
prominently emphasized the consequences of climate
change for human security (UNDP, 2007; IPCC,
2007) rather than just being an environmental issue.
Africa is termed a continent with climate-dependent eco-
nomic sectors at risk of violent ethnic conflict. Climate-
change predictions for Africa suggest increasing scarce
water resources associated with a high risk of violent
conflict, and declining and failing agricultural yields
in the Horn of Africa (Carius, 2009; OECD, 2008).
Burke et al. (2009) found correlations between changes
in temperature or high levels of variability in rainfall
and the likelihood of violent conflict events in Africa.
The question arises, therefore, whether Kenya, which
is experiencing the drying up of lakes and rivers, dwind-
ling water supplies, and serious food shortages, is facing
a typical situation with conflict induced by environ-
mental scarcity.
The changes in rainfall patterns and frequent
droughts make the survivability of pastoralists in the arid
environments particularly difficult (Boko et al., 2007).
Cyclical droughts are increasing in frequency, with the
drought cycle, on average, increasing from one in eight
years to one every three years. Interannual and intersea-
sonal variations in rainfall patterns determine pastoral
mobility and the use of fall-back grazing areas, intercom-
munity relations and altered land tenure arrangements,
and conflict to the detrimental use of the rangelands.
The availability of common-pool resources across border
areas leads to periodic conflicts in the drylands. Con-
flicts between pastoral communities in the arid border-
lands of northern Kenya, southern Sudan and southern
Ethiopia are said to be over access to pasture and water,
livestock raiding and the heavy presence of small arms
(Leff, 2009). The fighting between pastoralists and
farmers in the Oromia and Ogaden regions of Ethiopia,
and interclan fighting in Somalia all seem to indicate
the links between the human impacts of climate change
and the threats of violent conflicts (Human Impact
Report, 2009).
Lobell et al. (2008) predict a 54% increase in armed
conflicts in sub-Saharan Africa by 2030 compared to the
1980 to 2000 period, if future wars are as deadly as
recent wars. Burke et al. (2009) report strong historical
linkages between civil war and temperature increase in
Africa. These claims were later refuted by Buhaug
(2010a,b), whoshows that, using a more accurate method
of investigation and by making use of a more complete
armed conflict dataset, there is no causal relationship.
The risk of increased conflict trends in Africa
are likely a result of many complex reasons, including
inadequate governance, rampant corruption, heavy
dependence on natural resources and ongoing cycles of
violent conflict (Halden, 2007; Olsson, Eklundh &
Ardo
¨, 2005). Buhaug, Gleditsch & Theisen (2008) give
an overview of multiple factors that may play a role in the
evolution of climate change-related violence, yet empha-
size that there is no up-to-date empirical statistical evi-
dence of violence directly related to climate change and
environmental scarcities. Natural resources usually seem
like the obvious cause, but conflict may be triggered by
the absence of good institutions and external interfer-
ence. A study of Northern Kenya found that it is not
drought, but the coming of the rains that is associated
with greater conflict casualties (Witsenburg & Adano,
2009). Pastoralists do not fight during a time of scarcity
but during periods of plenty, and the disruption of
livelihoods remains a major concern for security poli-
cies. In combination with economic, social and political
uncertainties, climate change might increase the risks of
conflict and instability, especially under conditions of
poor governance.
The actual impacts of climate change remain
controversial and speculative. According to Ostrom
(1990) and Young (2011) natural resources, including
common-pool resources such as forests, grazing pastures
and fisheries, are at times better managed collectively.
Ostrom (1990) explains that self-governing institutions
under common property rights are able to regulate many
resources for collective benefits, as people learn to coop-
erate when presented with a resource problem. In this
regard, institutions become a decisive variable in shaping
human–environment interaction, and in preventing
competition over resources turning into a violent conflict
(Ostrom, 2007; Young, 2011). We do not argue that
resource scarcity or abundance bring about (violent) con-
flict by themselves, but aim to provide evidence of how
and under what conditions natural resources contribute
to cooperation or violent conflict. This article shows
the outcome of an enquiry into the relationship between
climate change, natural resources availability and mar-
ginality (ecological and political) and social interactions
between ethnic groups. The article seeks to answer the
question whether we can develop an approach that com-
bines the physical environment and human agency
66 journal of PEACE RESEARCH 49(1)
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