Climate Disruption: Are We Beyond the Worst Case Scenario?
| Author | Michael Jennings |
| Date | 01 February 2013 |
| DOI | http://doi.org/10.1111/j.1758-5899.2012.00193.x |
| Published date | 01 February 2013 |
Climate Disruption: Are We Beyond
the Worst Case Scenario?
Michael Jennings
University of Idaho, Dept. of Geography
Abstract
The inability of world governments to agree on and implement effective mitigation response policy for anthropogenic
climate change has resulted in the continuation of an exponential growth in greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) that
averages 3.1 per cent per year since 1870. With the exception of 2009, world GHG emission levels surpassed the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2000) worst case scenario every year since 2004. Because of
increasing temperatures due to GHG emissions a suite of amplifying feedback mechanisms, such as massive methane
leaks from the sub-sea Arctic Ocean, have engaged and are probably unstoppable. These processes, acting in concert
with the biological and physical inertia of the Earth system in responding to atmospheric loading of GHGs, along with
economic, political and social barriers to emission reduction, currently place Earth’s climate trajectory well within the
IPCC’s A1FI future climate change scenario. There is a rapidly diminishing chance of altering this trajectory as time
goes on. There is also now a very real risk of sudden climate change. The pace of this quickly advancing situation,
along with our scientific understanding of it, has substantially outstripped policy discussion. This article examines
current primary science literature and data on today’s climate condition in a policy relevant context.
Policy Implications
•An all out shift to a broad range of adaptive response policies is urgently needed. Climate change will force reeval-
uations of present day governance agreements on trade, finance, food supply, security, development, environment,
and similar sectors.
•Easy to understand scientific data driven visualizations and culturally appropriate interpretations of probable future
conditions are needed to facilitate realistic adaptive policy responses from all levels of governance.
•Multilateral policies for an international crop seed cooperative could significantly lessen the impacts of crop failures
and low yields, reducing the risk of famine and economic effects of unstable food prices. There is a need to store
a large enough volume of crop seed varieties to allow for quick switching of varieties one year to the next based
on dynamic forecasts of seasonal climates.
•Harmonization of international, national, subnational, and local policies for the orderly resettlement of coastal pop-
ulations should begin now. This will become a chronic condition involving very large numbers of people. Improved
and coordinated policies are needed for refugee services and related issues of migration and integration as well as
planning for land use change and infrastructure development.
Reaching out on climate
There are three disconnected conversations going on
about climate change. One, among scientists, can be
characterized as amazement and concern with the
day-by-day outpouring of new information revealing
the magnitude, rate of onset, patterns, and irreversible
nature of anthropogenic climate change. Another con-
versation, among business, industry and many politi-
cians can be characterized by the 20 per cent drop in
US media coverage of the topic in 2011 over 2010
(Fischer, 2012). This is not actually much of a conver-
sation anymore other than events such as Texas and
Louisiana requiring the teaching of climate change
denial in public schools (Banerjee, 2012). The third
conversation, in policy analysis and development cir-
cles, is focused on multilateral agreements that will
somehow keep the average global surface temperature
increase to no more than two degrees Celsius while
ensuring economic progress in the developing world
(e.g., United Nations Framework Convention on
Cultural Change (UNFCC), 2010). This conversation
amplifies to shouting levels around the time of each
climate summit, such as the one in Durban last year
or Cancun and Copenhagen in previous years.
Global Policy Volume 4 . Issue 1 . February 2013
ª2012 London School of Economics and Political Science and John Wiley & Sons Ltd. Global Policy (2013) 4:1 doi: 10.1111/j.1758-5899.2012.00193.x
Research Article
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