Climate variability, economic growth, and civil conflict
| Author | Gabriele Spilker,Thomas Bernauer,Anna Kalbhenn,Vally Koubi |
| Published date | 01 January 2012 |
| DOI | 10.1177/0022343311427173 |
| Date | 01 January 2012 |
| Subject Matter | Research Articles |
Climate variability, economic growth,
and civil conflict
Vally Koubi
Center for Comparative and International Studies (CIS) & Institute for Environmental Decisions (IED), ETH
Zu
¨rich, University of Bern & Oeschger Institute for Climate Change Research
Thomas Bernauer
Center for Comparative and International Studies (CIS) & Institute for Environmental Decisions (IED), ETH
Zu
¨rich
Anna Kalbhenn
European Central Bank (ECB)
Gabriele Spilker
Center for Comparative and International Studies (CIS) & Institute for Environmental Decisions (IED), ETH
Zu
¨rich
Abstract
Despite many claims by high-ranking policymakers and some scientists that climate change breeds violent
conflict, the existing empirical literature has so far not been able to identify a systematic, causal relationship
of this kind. This may either reflect de facto absence of such a relationship, or it may be the consequence of
theoretical and methodological limitations of existing work. In this article we revisit the climate–conflict
hypothesis along two lines. First, we concentrate on indirect effects of climatic conditions on conflict,
whereas most of the existing literature focuses on direct effects. Specifically, we examine the causal pathway
linking climatic conditions to economic growth and to armed conflict, and argue that the growth–conflict
part of this pathway is contingent on the political system. Second, we employ a measure of climatic varia-
bility that has advantages over those used in the existing literature because it can presumably take into
account the adaptation of production to persistent climatic changes. For the empirical analysis we use a glo-
bal dataset for 1980–2004 and design the testing strategy tightly in line with our theory. Our empirical
analysis does not produce evidence for the claim that climate variability affects economic growth. However,
we find some, albeit weak, support for the hypothesis that non-democratic countries are more likely to expe-
rience civil conflict when economic conditions deteriorate.
Keywords
civil conflict, climate change, climate variability, democracy, economic growth
Introduction
The assessment reports of the Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change (IPCC, 2001, 2007) and the Stern
Review (2007) demonstrate that human activity is con-
tributing in important ways to climatic changes, and that
those changes have far-reaching effects on plants, ani-
mals, ecosystems, and humanity. Among the wide range
Corresponding author:
koubi@vwi.unibe.ch
Journal of Peace Research
49(1) 113–127
ªThe Author(s) 2012
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DOI: 10.1177/0022343311427173
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