Coping with China’s rise
| Author | Chung-In Moon,Seung-chan Boo |
| DOI | 10.1177/2057891116682650 |
| Published date | 01 March 2017 |
| Date | 01 March 2017 |
| Subject Matter | Research articles |
Research article
Coping with China’s rise:
Domestic politics and
strategic adjustment
in South Korea
Chung-In Moon and Seung-chan Boo
Institute for North Korean Studies, Yonsei University, South Korea
Abstract
The new emerging hegemonic rivalry between China and the US has placed South Korea in serious
adjustment dilemma. Being sandwiched between the two giants, Seoul has been trying to muddle
through their conflicting interests. This article aims to explore how China’s rise and rivalry with the
US have influenced Seoul’s domestic politics and resulted in policy choices, through the exam-
ination of three cases: THAAD (the Terminal High Altitude Air Defense System), the AIIB (Asia
Infrastructure Investment Bank), and the South China Sea. Our findings show that South Korea’s
adjustment behavior has varied across issue areas. On the issue of security, the Seoul government
has taken a pro-American balancing strategy by allowing the deployment of the US THAAD,
whereas it has chosen a reluctant pro-China bandwagoning position by joining the AIIB. And it has
taken a rather neutral position on the South China Sea dispute. Such variations can be explained by
the changing interests and underlying domestic politics and leadership choices in South Korea.
Keywords
AIIB, China and Korea’s strategic adjustment, South China Sea dispute, THAAD
Introduction
China was South Korea’s enemy for most of the second half of the 20th century. Chinese military
intervention during the Korean War made Seoul and Beijing mutually hostile throughout the Cold
War period. It was only after the end of the Cold War, in 1992, that South Korea could normalize
diplomatic ties with China. The bilateral relationship between the two has remained robust owing
to deepening economic interdependence, expanding social and cultura l exchanges, and
Corresponding author:
Chung-In Moon, Institute for North Korean Studies, Yonsei University, Seodaemun-gu, 120-749 Seoul, South Korea.
Email: cimoon@yonsei.ac.kr
Asian Journal of Comparative Politics
2017, Vol. 2(1) 3–23
ªThe Author(s) 2016
Reprints and permission:
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DOI: 10.1177/2057891116682650
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institutionalized government-to-government cooperation. Meanwhile, South Korea has also main-
tained close ties with the US as its ally, without creating any trade-offs with its relationship with
China. This can be attributed partly to a congenial Beijing-Washington tie.
Since 2009, however, the region’s geopolitical landscape has begun to change. China’s sudden
rise has alerted the US, and the Obama administration responded to it with the ‘pivot to Asia’
strategy (Clinton, 2011). The newly emerging hegemonic rivalry between the two has placed South
Korea in an adjustment dilemma. Seoul has traditionally sought economic benefits from China,
while maintaining tight security ties with the US. But dealing with the conflicting interests of the
two giants has become increasingly challenging, forcing South Korea to take sides with one of the
two. Such a ‘sandwich’ dilemma has triggered immense domestic political debate on the nature
and direction of strategic adjustment in South Korea.
This article aims to explore how China’s rise and rivalry with the US have influenced Seoul’s
domestic politics and foreign policy choices through the examination of three cases: the deploy-
ment of the Terminal High Altitude Air Defense System (THAAD), the Asia Infrastructure Invest-
ment Bank (AIIB), and the South China Sea dispute. The first section of the article presents an
overview of South Korean domestic debates on China’s rise and its strategic adjustment, and the
second looks into the three cases (deployment of THAAD, admission to AIIB, and position on the
South China Sea dispute). Finally, it draws some theoretical and policy implications for the future
of South Korea’s strategic adjustment.
China’s rise and South Korea’s strategic adjustment: Contending views
One of the most controversial foreign policy debates in South Korea involves China’s rise and
strategic adjustment thereof.
1
China’s rise is no longer just a possibility but a reality with profound
impacts on the Korean Peninsula. For South Koreans, China’s rise matters for several reasons.
Beijing is Seoul’s number one trading partner, and South Korea enjoys more than US$40 billion of
trade surplus every year. Cross-investments between the two have exponentially expanded, and its
economic dependency on China has deepened over time. Seoul’s prosperity rests with China.
China is also one of the key actors in bringing peace and stability to the Korean peninsula, not
only because of its status as one of the signatory parties to the Korean Armistice Agreement but
also because of its leverage in resolving North Korea’s nuclear issue as chair of the Six Party talks.
More importantly, its hegemonic rivalry with the US is vital to the shaping of strategic parameters
surrounding the Korean peninsula.
China’s rise would have not posed a dilemma to South Korea if the US had not seen any
problems with it. But the situation has become more difficult as rivalry between the two has
become more pronounced. It is not easy for South Korea to make a smooth adjustment in such
a situation. Which way to go? Domestic debates have centered on four choices: muddling through,
balancing, bandwagoning, and transcending (Chung, 2007: 111–115; Grieco, 2013; Han, 2008a:
335–351; Hundt, 2009; Kang, 2009: 1–9; Moon, forthcoming; Ross, 2006: 355–395).
2
Most South Koreans seem to prefer the ‘muddling through’ option, which refers to an incre-
mental tinkering or adjustment to changes in the external environment within the existing security
and economic framework. This strategy simply aims to maximize security benefits by strengthen-
ing alliance with the US, while minimizing economic uncertainty by promoting trade and invest-
ment ties with China. Late President Kim Dae-jung underscored this approach by stating that ‘‘As a
cow in a ditch feeds on grass of both banks, we should seek diplomacy of getting benefits from both
the US and China’’ (Hankook Ilbo, 2008; Pressian, 2011). Jae Ho Chung (2011: 120), a renowned
4Asian Journal of Comparative Politics 2(1)
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