COVID-19 and the Democracy–Autocracy Freedom Divide: Reflections on Post-Pandemic Regime Change Scenarios
| Author | Andrea Cassani |
| DOI | http://doi.org/10.1177/14789299211047087 |
| Published date | 01 November 2022 |
| Date | 01 November 2022 |
| Subject Matter | Early Results |
https://doi.org/10.1177/14789299211047087
Political Studies Review
2022, Vol. 20(4) 717 –724
© The Author(s) 2021
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DOI: 10.1177/14789299211047087
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COVID-19 and the Democracy–
Autocracy Freedom Divide:
Reflections on Post-Pandemic
Regime Change Scenarios
Andrea Cassani
Abstract
This research note contributes to the emerging debate on the consequences of the COVID-19
pandemic for democracy, autocracy and regime change. Following a review of the literature
on the short-term impact of the pandemic on citizen freedoms, I conduct a preliminary test
showing that COVID-19 has widened the freedom divide between democracy and autocracy.
I propose a prudential interpretation of this new finding and of its implications for medium- to
long-term regime change dynamics. In an age of advancing autocratization, regaining awareness
that democracies and autocracies treat citizens differently could help marginalize antisystem
political forces in democratic countries. However, increased levels of repression in regimes that
are already authoritarian are no good news in terms of prospective democratization. Moreover,
the management of the social and economic consequences of the pandemic is likely to represent
a key driver of future regime change, duo to its impact on the legitimacy and stability of both
democracies and autocracies.
Keywords
democracy, democratization, autocracy, autocratization, COVID-19, pandemic
Accepted: 31 August 2021
Introduction
Since March 2020, when the World Health Organization declared that COVID-19 had
assumed the characteristics of a pandemic,1 both politics and research have been engaged
in analysing the damage of the crisis and the most effective responses to it. Among the
countless consequences – for health, welfare, labour, productivity and social life – that the
COVID-19 pandemic is having on states and populations throughout the world, we need
to consider its possible repercussions on the future of democracy too. For several years
Department of Social and Political Sciences, Università degli Studi di Milano, Milano, Italy
Corresponding author:
Andrea Cassani, Department of Social and Political Sciences, Università degli Studi di Milano, Via
Conservatorio 7, 20122 Milano, Italy.
Email: andrea.cassani@unimi.it
1047087PSW0010.1177/14789299211047087Political Studies ReviewCassani
research-article2021
Early Results
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