Covid-19 Pandemic Deranging Energy Transition in Uganda: Challenges and Prospects

Date01 August 2020
DOI10.3366/gels.2020.0030
Published date01 August 2020
Pages211-216
Introduction

The coronavirus (COVID-19) global pandemic is unsettling for economic growth and development,1 with effects not only felt on the health front but across all sectors from tourism, education, transport, manufacturing and innovation, agriculture and food business with the energy industry not being spared. In general, the pandemic has disrupted global supply chains, factories shut down, and business operations delayed. The pandemic has also led to a decrease in the international financial flows due to the complexities caused by shocks to human and financial domestic resources. For the transport and tourism sectors, there has been a deterioration leading to substantial losses in revenue due to existing travel restrictions.

As a result, Uganda's economic growth is predicted to slow to 3.5 per cent in 2020 from 4.9 per cent in 2019. Moreover, its public debt will rise to 46.3 per cent of its GDP.2 Besides, the country relies heavily on non-concessional financing from China for investments in infrastructure ahead of the oil production. With the countries under economic mayhem, coronavirus-related borrowing is likely to bring the public debt to more than 50 per cent of the total GDP by 2021.3

This chapter thus examines the impact of the COVID-19 economic crisis on petroleum frontier states like Uganda amidst the growing global energy transition away from fossil fuels. Furthermore, it analyses the implications of COVID-19 on the energy transition in developing countries with Uganda as the case study. With the country's oil future thrown into uncertainty, the chapter argues for the management of expectations from the sector and an extension of resources and realignment of policies to aid the transition to cleaner energy sources.

The Global Oil Crisis

With countries pausing economic expansion and placing much focus on deterring the spread of the disease and treatment of the afflicted, the energy industry has suffered a significant blow. This is due to the social distancing measures in place such as the strict lockdowns by states with the movement of people, vehicles, and aircrafts curtailed save for a few cargo transport vessels, leading to drop in the global demand for fuel. Reports indicate that with more than half of the world's population under lockdown, the global energy demand fell by 3.8 per cent during the first quarter of 2020 compared to the preceding year.4 Only a pick-up in the global oil demand after the lifting of the lockdown...

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