COVID-19, state capacity, and political violence by non-state actors
| Author | Ore Koren,Britt Koehnlein |
| Published date | 01 January 2022 |
| Date | 01 January 2022 |
| DOI | http://doi.org/10.1177/00223433211063034 |
| Subject Matter | Regular Articles |
COVID-19, state capacity, and political
violence by non-state actors
Britt Koehnlein
Ore Koren
Department of Political Science, Indiana University
Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic has constrained the ability of states across the world to govern and control their
territories. As the state reduces its activities, space opens for violent non-state actors working for and against the
state to fill the vacuum. Highlighting this trend, the present study evaluates the effects of COVID-19 and
pandemics more broadly on attacks by non-state actors. Our theory emphasizes the incentives of both rebels and
pro-government non-state actors (PGNs) to increase their attack frequency as disease spreadsand the state retracts
its governance activities to preserve resources needed elsewhere. In the first case, we highlight how the pandemic
allows rebels to reduce asymmetries of power with respect to the military and establish themselves as a viable
government alternative. In the second case, PGNs, which provide an alternative to militaries, are deployed to these
contested spaces to thwart or pre-empt rebellion during the pandemic. Employing daily-level data on the annual
change in armed conflict and COVID-19 cases across 127 countries between 1 January 2020 and 15 June 2020,
we test both claims using an econometric identification strategy. We do not find clear evidence that COVID-19
led to a higher frequency of rebel attacks, suggesting that these groups prefer to bolster their standing using
nonviolent means, or avoid fighting and preserve their resources. In contrast, we find that the frequency of PGN
attacks has increased with COVID-19 prevalence compared with last year. Case studies of insurgent and PGN
activity in Afghanistan and Nigeria lend additional support to these results, illustrating some underlying mechan-
isms. Our findings explore overlooked challenges that pandemics and other disasters pose to conflict mitigation
and the role PGNs play in these contexts.
Keywords
civil war, COVID-19, pandemics, political violence, pro-government militia, rebels
This study examines how COVID-19 has affected levels
of violence by armed non-state actors. By ‘non-state
actors’, we refer to a spectrum of armed organizations
and groups, ranging from fully militarized rebel groups
to loosely structured civilian defense councils. These
groups can work for – or at least not against – the state
or act directly against it. Our focus covers both pro-
government non-state (PGN) groups such as militias,
paramilitaries, auxiliaries, and mercenaries, and anti-
government groups such as rebels and insurgents (see
e.g. Carey, Colaresi & Mitchell, 2015; Raleigh & Kishi,
2020). Non-state actor activity ranges from benign orga-
nizational efforts (e.g. deciding in matters of local
governance), through service provision (e.g. healthcare),
to violent pro- or anti-government action and civilian
victimization (e.g. Ahram, 2011; Koren, 2017; Mitchell,
Carey & Butler, 2014).
Theoretically, there are multiple possible linkages
between COVID-19 and violence by non-state groups,
but we focus on one we believe is key – namely, the
disruption to state capacity and control caused by the
pandemic. We argue that, as governments scale back
Corresponding author:
okoren@iu.edu
Journal of Peace Research
2022, Vol. 59(1) 90–104
ªThe Author(s) 2022
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DOI: 10.1177/00223433211063034
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