Crime Dynamics at Lithuanian Borders
| Author | Vânia Ceccato |
| Published date | 01 April 2007 |
| Date | 01 April 2007 |
| DOI | http://doi.org/10.1177/1477370807074845 |
| Subject Matter | Articles |
ARTICLES
Volume 4 (2): 131–160: 1477-3708
DOI: 10.1177/1477370807074845
Copyright © 2007 European Society of
Criminology and SAGE Publications
Los Angeles, London, New Delhi and Singapore
www.sagepublications.com
Crime Dynamics at Lithuanian Borders
Vânia Ceccato
Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm, Sweden
ABSTRACT
This article compares levels and patterns of offences in different parts of Lithuania
with the aim of assessing whether border regions are more susceptible to crime
than the rest of the country. The article focuses on identifying and explaining
these patterns for selected categories of offences while taking account of
contextual factors. Spatial statistical techniques and Geographic Information
Systems underpin the methodology employed. Findings suggest that there are
variations in the level and geography of offences between border regions and the
rest of the country. Despite the fact that the highest average increases in recorded
criminal offences were found in two border regions, non-border regions had a
higher average increase in the 1990s. This partially explains why, out of the six
selected offences, only assault shows an increase owing to the ‘border effect’. The
proportion of the population living in urban areas is by far the most important
covariate in explaining the regional variations in offence ratios.
KEY WORDS
Geographic Information System / Offence Patterns / Spatial Modelling /
Transition Countries.
Borders are scars of history 1
Introduction
Relatively little is known about crime dynamics in border regions. Studies
that deal with crimes involving the illegal transport of goods or people over
borders are often a-spatial. This means that most of these studies focus on
the processes of criminal businesses, flows or networks, instead of looking
1AGEG/AEBR/ARFE, European charter for border and cross-border regions (2004: 3).
131-160 EUC-074845.qxd 28/2/07 11:17 AM Page 131
at local aspects of the borders or countries (e.g. Nordstrom 2000; Burnham
2003; Chawla and Pietschmann 2005). Although many would argue that
local factors do not matter, there is little evidence that border regions differ
from other regions in their susceptibility to crime (but see Ceccato and
Haining 2004). This paper contributes to this knowledge base by using
Lithuania as a case study to assess whether border regions are more affected
by crime than the rest of the country (Figure 1).
Lithuania has been chosen for several reasons. First, since the collapse
of the Soviet empire, Lithuania has undergone a period of profound polit-
ical, economic and social changes. Together with Estonia and Latvia,
Lithuania is today a liberal democracy, a parliamentary republic, and fast
heading toward a so-called ‘market economy’. These changes are expected
to have implications for the level and composition of offences as well as
their geographies. Historically, Lithuania and other Baltic countries have
been transit countries between East and West (Ulrich 1994). However, now
that Lithuania has joined the European Union (EU), it has become a border
state on the critical eastern border with non-EU countries, such as Belarus
and Russia (Kaliningrad oblast). Joining the EU meant an initial process of
(re)structuring of institutions and setting them up to adapt rapidly to EU
standards, including control of people and goods at the borders. Lithuania’s
border regions are therefore particularly interesting because they are
directly exposed to such changes.
Lithuania constitutes an interesting case since it is geographically
encapsulated by its neighbours, with a border of 1733 km (119 km with the
Baltic sea, 272 km with Russia (Kaliningrad oblast), 651 km with Belarus,
588 km with Latvia and 103 km with Poland) controlled by 70 border
crossing points (Appendix 1). The country requires specific frameworks of
border control over land, sea and air traffic. Border controls cover only a
portion of the illegal activities that take place in Lithuania either as an
origin or as a transit country. Whereas most illegal goods seized at borders
consist of cigarettes and alcohol, Lithuanian organized crime groups are
involved in a much wider range of activities, including drug trafficking,
trafficking in women for prostitution, illegal immigration, stolen vehicle
trafficking and currency counterfeiting (Europol 2004).
Owing to a lack of data and their poor quality, there has been
relatively little interest in post-Soviet states. However, since most statistics for
these countries have followed international standards since the mid-1990s,
data provided by the public authorities can now be regarded as relatively
robust. This, of course, does not mean that data, particularly those on crime,
are free from problems. Crime records have been influenced by political and
administrative changes in the country and by changes in the criminal code
132 European Journal of Criminology 4(2)
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