Dealing with Disequilibrium: Rising Pressures and Diminishing Resources in Third World Nation-States
| Date | 01 September 1984 |
| Author | Robert L. Rothstein |
| DOI | 10.1177/002070208403900304 |
| Published date | 01 September 1984 |
| Subject Matter | Article |
ROBERT
L.
ROTHSTEIN
Dealing
with
disequilibrium:
rising
pressures
and
diminishing
resources
in
Third
World
nation-states
Optimists
about
the
future
of
the nation-state
in
the
Third
World
are
in
short
supply.
This
is
not
especially
surprising
since
the
'old'
international
order
established
after
World
War
II
is
undergoing
great strain, raising
substantial questions
about
whether
it
can
survive
and
whether
its
members
are
wise
enough
or
politically skilled
enough
to
produce
an
acceptable
alternative.
And
of
course
poor
and
weak
states
are
the
first
vic-
tims
of
adverse
trends
in
the
international
environment
be-
cause
they
lack
the
spare resources
to
adjust
or
to
devise
'safety
nets'
or
to
protect
themselves
except
by
a
cure
-
increased
do-
mestic
austerity
-
that
may
be
worse
than
the
disease.
This
is
not
to
suggest
that
full
responsibility
for
present
and
emerging
problems
can
be
attributed
to
the
impact
of
external
trends
and
developments,
no
matter
how
attractive
such
an
interpretation
may
be
to
intellectuals
and
policy-makers
in
the
Third
World.
There
is
little
doubt
that
some
of
the
responsibility
must
fall
di-
rectly on
the
developing
countries
themselves
not
only
for
a
va-
riety
of
policy
failures
but
also
for
an
unwillingness
to
confront
directly
some
issues
that remain
largely
matters
of
local
deci-
sion
(high
levels
of
corruption,
reluctance
to
co-operate
or
to
end
conflicts
with
neighbours,
rising
military
expenditures,
for
example).
Nevertheless,
it
is
surely
true
that
the
deteriorating
international environment
is
making
it
extraordinarily
difficult
to deal with
domestic
problems
-
even
apparently
correct
poli-
An
international
consultant
in
Washington,
Dr
Rothstein
is
the
author
of
a
number
of
books
on
North-South relations.
International
Journal
XXXiX
summer
1984
554
INTERNATIONAL
JOURNAL
cies
and
wise
governments
can
be
overwhelmed
by
external
events
for
which
they
bear
little
responsibility.'
Forecasting
the outcome
of
current
uncertainties
is
a
very
risky
business. One
needs
only
to
recall
that
forecasters
in
the
late
196os
failed even
to
mention
issues,
such
as
energy,
re-
source
constraints,
the
role
of
the
multinational
corporation,
and potential
food
scarcities,
which
were
staples
of
policy
con-
cern
before
many
months
had
passed.
Forecasting
may
be
espe-
cially
difficult
now
because
it
may
require
a
perception
of
dis-
continuity.
The
convenient
assumption
that
the underlying
systemic
structure
will
remain
valid
and
that
the
forecaster
need
only
extrapolate
trends and
tendencies
is
inherently
sus-
pect
in
an
era
when
the
structure
itself
is
at
stake.
An
unusual
degree
of
uncertainty
is
thus
added
to
an
already
complex
situ-
ation,
uncertainty not
only
about
the
choice
of
proper
means
but
also
about
which
goals
can
or
should
be
pursued.
In
short,
the
likelihood
of
missing
something
of
importance
is
disturb-
ingly
high.
I
shall
make
some
plausible
inferences
based
on
what
we
know
now,
but
the
implausible
may
dominate
and
the
merely
urgent
may
obscure
the
genuinely
important.
There
are
a
few
other introductory
points
worth
noting.
The
first
is
that
it
is
becoming
more
difficult
to
discuss
the
'Third
World'
without
making
important
distinctions
between
different
groups
within
the
collectivity.
Increasing
differentia-
tion
within the
Third
World
is
inevitable
-
because
of different
starting
points,
resource
endowments,
growth
rates,
policy
choices,
and
so
on
-
but
it
is
becoming more
consequential
not
only because
the
passage
of
time
has allowed
the
differences
to
become
more
salient
but
also
because
the
sharply
increased
in-
ternal
and
external pressures
have
generated
a
wide
variety
of
responses and
nations
possess
very
different
abilities
to
cope
i
Some
sense
of
the difficulties
can
be
inferred
from
a
few
numbers:
by
1984,
per-
capita
income
in
the
developing
countries
was
5
per
cent
lower
than
in
198o;
terms
of
trade
have
deteriorated
at
an average
rate
of
1.6
per
cent
per
annum
since 198o;
and
the net
transfer
of
financial
resources
has
declined
from
$55
bil-
lion
in
1981
to
$4
billion
in
1984.
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