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Decision-Making Models, Rigor and New Puzzles

Document Cited in Related
Vincent
AuthorBruce Bueno de Mesquita
DOI10.1177/1465116504040448
Published date01 March 2004
Date01 March 2004
Subject MatterJournal Article
Forum Section I
Decision-Making Models,
Rigor and New Puzzles
Bruce Bueno de Mesquita
New York University and Stanford University, USA
ABSTRACT
Comparative tests of predictive accuracy across models are
exceptionally rare in political science. The collection of
articles in this issue provides a rigorous, systematic evalu-
ation of alternative models for explaining and predicting
decision-making within the European Union. I examine how
alternative models were evaluated and raise questions about
the differences in the extent to which the operational defi-
nitions of variables match contending theoretical
approaches. I also raise questions regarding the difference
between models with regard to whether the issues are part
of a repeated game or a single-shot game. Finally, I propose
future tests to hone in on some of the puzzles raised by the
findings reported here.
125
European Union Politics
DOI: 10.1177/1465116504040448
Volume 5 (1): 125–138
Copyright© 2004
SAGE Publications
London, Thousand Oaks CA,
New Delhi
KEY WORDS
models
measurement
prediction
post-diction
reliability
06 040448 (to/d) 9/1/04 11:26 am Page 125

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