Defence and Security Policies of Syria in a Changing Regional Environment
| Published date | 01 April 1996 |
| Author | Anoushiravan Ehteshami |
| Date | 01 April 1996 |
| DOI | 10.1177/004711789601300103 |
| Subject Matter | Articles |
49
DEFENCE
AND
SECURITY
POLICIES
OF
SYRIA
IN
A
CHANGING
REGIONAL
ENVIRONMENT
Anoushiravan
Ehteshami
Introduction
_
.
The
impact
of
the
collapse
of the
Soviet
Union
in
1991
can
be
regarded
as
one
of
the
most
important
external
post-War
developments’in
Syria’s
history.
This
event
created
long-term
security
dilemmas
for
Damascus,
ranging
from
the
problems
associated
with
the
disappearance
of
a
close
alliance
with
a
superpower, to
the
dry-
ing
up
of
the
source
of
medium/high
technology
weapons
at
reasonable
prices
for
a
financially
poor
state.
In
regional
terms,
the
withdrawal
of
Soviet
security
cover
has
left
its
mark
on
Syria’s
position,
leaving
a
number
of
questions
to
be
answered
about
how
Syria
is
dealing
with
this
new
context.
Has
Damascus
been
able
to
con-
tinue
in
its
pursuit
of
strategic
parity
with
Israel?’
How
has
Syria’s
position
in
the
Arab
world
been
affected
by
the
end
of
the
Cold
War?
What
mark,
if
any,
has
the
collapse
of
European
communism
left
on
the
Syrian
regime’s
political
ideology?
How
has
Syria
defined
and
responded
to
its
new
security
dilemmas
and
to
the
post-Cold
War
crises
which
have
engulfed
the
Middle
East?
Indeed,
can
it
be
said
that
Damascus
has
found
a
viable
new
security
strategy
to
suit
the
1990s?
Seeking
answers
to
these
questions
forms
the
core
of
this
article.
At
its
heart
is
the
search
for
an
understanding
of
Syria’s
acute
security
dilemmas
since
the
col-
lapse
of
the
Soviet
Union,
how
the
regime
has
attempted
to
adapt
itself
to
the
new
conditions
and
in
what
ways
it
continues
to
pursue
its
national
interests.
In
order
to
understand
fully
Syria’s
post-Cold
War
security
and
defence
dilemmas,
however,
it
is
necessary
first
to
provide
an
historical
context
by
analysing
the
regional
changes
in
the
1980s
from
the
Syrian
perspective,
focus-
ing
in
particular
on
the
period
following
the
Iran-Iraq
war
cease-fire
in
1988.
The
198~s
viewed
from
the
perspective
of
Damascus
Broadly
speaking,
the
1980s
can
be
broken
down
into
four
periods
of concern
for
Syria.
The
first
was
dominated
by
a
series
off
events
beyond
Syria’s
control.
These
included
the
Iranian
revolution
of
1979,
the
crisis
in
Iranian-Iraqi
and
Syrian-
Iraqi
relations,
the
Egyptian-Israeli
peace
treaty
of
1979,
the
impact
of
the
Iran-
Iraq
war
on
the
region,
the
military
coup
in
Turkey
in
1981
and
the
evolution
of
an
Israeli-American
’strategic
alliance’
following
the
election
in
1980
of
Republican
Ronald
Reagan
as
the
US
president.
1
For
a
detailed
analysis
of
this
concept
see
Ahmed
S.
Khalidi
and
Hussein
Agha,
’The
Syrian
Doctrine
of
Strategic
Parity’,
in
Judith
Kipper
and
Harold
H.
Saunders
(eds),
The
Middle
East
in
Global
Perspective
(Boulder,
CO:
Westview
Press,
1991),
pp.
186-218.
50
The
second
period
focused
Damascus’
mind
on
Israel’s
challenge
to
the
Syrian
dominance
in
Lebanon
as
posed
by
the
1982
Israeli
invasion
and
subsequent
developments.
Such
issues
as
the
rise
of
Islamic
militancy
in
Syria
and
elsewhere
in
the
Arab
world,
the
worsening
of
PLO-Syrian
relations
after
1982,
the
hostage
crisis
and
the
presence
of
Western
military
forces
became
important
preoccupa-
tions
for
the
Syrian
leadership,
in
turn
tending
to
emphasize
the
significance
of
the
Syrian-Soviet
alliance
for
the
former.
The
third
period
was
marked
by
the
Iraqi-Egyptian
rapprochement
and
Egypt’s
creeping
rehabilitation
in
the
Arab
world.
These
developments
had
two
major
implications
for
Syria.
First,
Egypt’s
return
to
the
Arab
world
without
Syria’s
acquiescence
could
only
undermine
Syria’s
regional
authority.
Secondly,
the
emerging
politico-military
alliance
between
the
two
most
critical
Arab
actors
(and
largest
military
machines)
of
Egypt
and
Iraq,
neither
of
which
had
good
rela-
tions
with
Damascus,
posed
a
major
security
challenge
to
Syria,
both
directly
(through
attempting
to
isolate
Syria
in
the
Arab
world
for
its
support
of
Iran
in
the
war)
and
indirectly
(by
refusing
to
side
with
Syria
in
the
Levant
balance
of ter-
ror
equation).
The
coming
to
power
in
Moscow
of
President
Gorbachev
in
1985
added
to
Syria’s
problems,
particularly
as
the
Soviet
leader’s
new
domestic
and
foreign
policies
displayed
the
potential
to
undermine
the
stability
and
security
of
the
USSR’s
European
and
regional
allies.’
The
fourth
period
and,
from
Damascus’
perspective,
perhaps
the
most
pro-
foundly
disturbing,
began
with
the
collapse
of
the
Iranian
challenge
to
Saddam
Hussein’s
Ba’thist
regime
in
1988
and
ended
with
the
disappearance
of
the
Soviet
Union
as
a
state
in
1991.
After
this
date
the
rules
of
the
game
began
to
change
very
rapidly
and
dramatically.
In
the
Arab
world,
the
period
was
marked
by
a
major
military
crisis
in
the
Persian
Gulf
and
the
further
fracturing
of the
Arab
sys-
tem.3
Apart
from
these
crises,
to
which
Syria
inevitably
had
to
respond,
Lebanon
resurfaced
as
a
security
dilemma
for
the
country,
complicated by
Iraq’s
involve-
ment
in
the
country
in
1988
and
1989.
1980-~82o
War
and
revolution
in
the
Persian
Gulf,
confrontation
in
the
Levant
Egypt’s
peace
treaty
with
Israel
in
1979
had
a
profound
impact
on
the
Arab
world,
raising
multidimensional
problems
for
front-line
and
secondary
Arab
states
alike.
In
one
stroke,
the
treaty
gave
Israel
a
direct
foothold
in
Arab
affairs
and
removed
the
Arab
world’s
’strongest’
actor
from
the
Arab-Israeli
theatre.
More
worrying
still,
the
peace
treaty
with
Egypt
also
enabled
Israel
to
increase
’its
national
security
domain
to
cover
an
area
that
stretched
from
Tunisia
to
Iraq’
in
the
Arab
warld.4
2
See
Galia
Golan,
Soviet
Policies
in
the
Middle
East:
From
World
War
II
to
Gorbachev
(Cambridge:
Cambridge
University
Press,
1990).
3
Muhammad
Faour,
The
Arab
World
After
Desert
Storm
(Washington,
DC:
United
States Institute
of
Peace,
1993).
4
Abdel
Monem
Said
Aly,
’Egypt:
A
Decade
after
Camp
David’,
in
William
B.
Quandt
(ed.),
The
Middle
East
Ten
Years
after
Camp
David
(Washington,
DC:
The
Brookings
Institution,
1988),
p.
88.
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