Demographic change and backlash: Identity politics in historical perspective
| Date | 01 November 2020 |
| DOI | 10.1177/1369148120948362 |
| Published date | 01 November 2020 |
| Author | Justin Gest |
| Subject Matter | Symposium on Backlash Politics in Comparison |
https://doi.org/10.1177/1369148120948362
The British Journal of Politics and
International Relations
2020, Vol. 22(4) 679 –691
© The Author(s) 2020
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DOI: 10.1177/1369148120948362
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Demographic change and
backlash: Identity politics in
historical perspective
Justin Gest
Abstract
Why are backlash politics so prevalent in the context of demographic change? And so that we may
understand how to mitigate social conflict, what role do government and political actors play in their
inflammation or reconciliation? Drawing from a larger study of six societies that have dealt with
significant demographic change, I review the ways that government and political leaders’ actions can
produce three different social cleavages: (1) an overriding and enduring cleavage between ethnic
constituencies in national politics, (2) an overriding cleavage that is suppressed by political actors, or
(3) a new definition of social cleavages that re-constructs public understandings of the nation. I find
that the drivers of these different trajectories relate to state actions in the construction of national
identities, which either exclude certain subgroups or absorb them into a state of coexistence. I
identify five ways governments channel backlash politics towards exclusion or coexistence, and
provide examples from Hawai‘i, a case where historical cleavages between natives and immigrants
nearly disappeared. Ultimately, I find that these politics are subject to competing understandings of
the nation – the pivotal sense of ‘we’ – that can unite or divide a multiethnic society.
Keywords
backlash, comparative, demographic change, ethnicity, history, identity, immigration, race
Introduction
In the United States and much of Europe, the spectre of demographic change looms over
contemporary politics. The US Census Bureau (2018) estimates that a mix of Latin, Asian,
and African-origin people will outnumber the non-Hispanic white American population by
2045. Non-white children already comprise fewer than half the American children under the
age of 15 years old, and more than half of America’s major cities are now ‘majority minor-
ity’ (Frey, 2018, 2020). As a result, many Americans are discomforted by rising immigra-
tion and declining native fertility rates and their effects on national identity and character
(Allen, 2017; Gest, 2016; Sides et al., 2018; Hopkins et al., 2019). The demography of
European countries like Belgium, France, and Sweden are beginning to parallel American
population trends, producing parallel (even if premature) political sentiments.
Schar School of Policy and Government, George Mason University, Arlington, VA, USA
Corresponding author:
Justin Gest, George Mason University, Arlington, VA 22201, USA.
Email: justin.gest@gmail.com
948362BPI0010.1177/1369148120948362The British Journal of Politics and International RelationsGest
research-article2020
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