Disappearing dissent? Repression and state consolidation in Mexico
| Author | Michael Weintraub,Livia I Schubiger,Javier Osorio |
| Date | 01 March 2018 |
| Published date | 01 March 2018 |
| DOI | 10.1177/0022343318751035 |
| Subject Matter | Regular Articles |
Disappearing dissent? Repression
and state consolidation in Mexico
Javier Osorio
School of Government and Public Policy, University of Arizona
Livia I Schubiger
Department of Government, London School of Economics
Michael Weintraub
School of Government, Universidad de los Andes
Abstract
Does violent repression strengthen the state? In this article we explore the legacies of repression by the Mexican
government on subsequent patterns of state consolidation. We investigate how a particular form of state repression,
forced disappearances of alleged leftist dissidents during the ‘Dirty War’, had path-dependent consequences for
different dimensions of state capacity nearly 50 years later. To do so, we rely on data gathered from suppressed
Mexican human rights reports of forced disappearances which, to our knowledge, have not been analyzed by social
scientists before. Controlling for a rich set of pre-disappearances covariates we find that forced disappearances are
positively correlated with contemporary measures of fiscal, territorial, and bureaucratic capacity. However, historical
forced disappearances do not help the state to provide security, to consolidate its monopoly over the use of force, or to
provide welfare-related public goods in the long run. Moreover, disappearances are negatively correlated with various
measures of trust in the government. Forced disappearances committed by the state appear to have long-term yet
heterogeneous effects on state consolidation.
Keywords
forced disappearances, legacies of violence, Mexico, repression, state capacity
Introduction
What are the long-term effects of state repression?
Authoritarian regimes facing organized political challen-
gers frequently resort to violence to maintain their rule,
intending both to punish past behavior by challengers
and deter future potential threats. While the short-term
effects of such repression have been amply studied (e.g.
Davenport, 2007), the long-term effects of state repres-
sion have been explored far less.
1
Moreover, research is
still in nascent stages regarding the effects of specific
repertoires of repression and violence, especially those
that are less visible and for which data are difficult to
collect (Sullivan & Davenport, 2018).
This article explores the long-term effects of one form
of state repression, forced disappearances of alleged dis-
sidents, common in authoritarian states and civil war.
We assume that the state’s decision to forcibly disappear
citizens is likely to persistently affect local communities
and their attitudes towards the state and to affect various
dimensions of state capacity. Drawing on three litera-
tures on state consolidation, political violence, and the
Corresponding author:
ml.weintraub@uniandes.edu.co
1
Exceptions include Lupu & Peisakhin (2017), Rozenas, Schutte &
Zhukov (2017), Costalli & Ruggeri (2017), Zhukov & Talibova
(2018).
Journal of Peace Research
2018, Vol. 55(2) 252–266
ªThe Author(s) 2018
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DOI: 10.1177/0022343318751035
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