Disasters and civilian victimization: Exploring the dynamic effect in Africa, 1997–2017
| Date | 01 January 2022 |
| Author | Babak RezaeeDaryakenari,Roos Haer |
| Published date | 01 January 2022 |
| DOI | 10.1177/00223433211061672 |
| Subject Matter | Regular Articles |
Disasters and civilian victimization:
Exploring the dynamic effect
in Africa, 1997–2017
Roos Haer
Babak RezaeeDaryakenari
1
Institute of Political Science, Leiden University
Abstract
How do natural disasters affect the treatment of civilians by non-state actors? On the one hand, conflict literature
argues that adverse shocks influence the strategic interplay between rebel groups and the government, potentially
increasing the level of violence against civilians. On the other hand, sociological research on natural disasters argues
that they increase social integration and cooperation and are thus expected to reduce the risk of violent behaviour. In
this study, we contend that the dynamics of violence against civilians are different in the short term and long term
after a disaster strikes. We argue that natural disasters lead to a decrease in violence against civilians perpetrated by
rebel groups in the short run. However, over time this temporary improvement in social integration starts to decline,
increasing the level of civilian victimization. To examine this potential temporal dynamic, we combine georeferenced
information on one-sided violence (Armed Conflict Location & Event Data; ACLED) and data on disasters
(Emergency Event Database; EM-DAT). Our results confirm the expected dynamic effects. This research has
important implications for our understanding of how disasters can influence the relationship between civilians, rebel
groups, and governments.
Keywords
Africa, civilian victimization, disasters, one-sided violence, rebel groups, timing
Introduction
An abhorrent characteristic of many armed conflicts
around the world is the intentional and direct killing
of unarmed civilians – termed one-sided violence –by
armed groups (Eck & Hultman, 2007).
2
In the last
30 years of internal armed conflict, nearly one million
innocent civilians were killed in these deliberate attacks
(Pettersson & O
¨berg, 2020). Indeed, civilian casualties
occur in all intrastate armed conflicts. However, patterns
of violence against civilians vary across time and location
within a single conflict (Balcells & Stanton, 2021).
The question of why armed groups intentionally
harm and kill unarmed civilians during armed conflict
has received vast scholarly attention over the past decades
(see Balcells & Stanton, 2021 for a recent overview).
Most studies argue that this type of violence is driven
by a strategic interplay between rebel groups and the
government, which is largely dependent upon the rebel
group’s capabilities (Wood, 2010). For instance, armed
groups employ violence against civilians to weaken the
opponent’s civilian support base, when they lose territory
or experience food insecurity (e.g. Raleigh & Choi,
2017; RezaeeDaryakenari, Landis & Thies, 2020).
Corresponding author:
s.rezaeedaryakenari@fsw.leidenuniv.nl
1
Names ordered alphabetically and equal authorship implied.
2
We will use the terms one-sided violence and civilian victimization
interchangeably throughout this study.
Journal of Peace Research
2022, Vol. 59(1) 43–57
ªThe Author(s) 2022
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DOI: 10.1177/00223433211061672
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