Disasters and intergroup peace in sub-Saharan Africa
| Published date | 01 January 2022 |
| Date | 01 January 2022 |
| Author | Eunbin Chung,Inbok Rhee |
| DOI | 10.1177/00223433211065249 |
| Subject Matter | Regular Articles |
Disasters and intergroup peace
in sub-Saharan Africa
Eunbin Chung
University of Utah
Inbok Rhee
KDI School of Public Policy and Management
Abstract
How do disasters affect intergroup peace and conflict? Existing research shows that disasters can have opposing effects
on how we perceive others: they can exacerbate existing tension in some cases or serve as catalysts for peace and
cooperation in others. Yet we know little about the conditions under which we should expect one or the other. In this
study, we estimate the impact of disasters on perceptions of out-groups. We combine a dataset of mass disasters with
tens of thousands of individual-level survey responses recorded in Round 6 of the Afrobarometer data between 2014
and 2015. Using a difference-in-differences approach exploiting spatial and temporal proximity to disaster occur-
rences, we estimate the degree to which disasters affect public opinion toward out-groups. As disaster occurrence is
plausibly exogenous to interview dates or respondent locations, our approach allows for an improved test of how the
shock from disaster can impact public perceptions. Moreover, we show such impact varies by considering the
differences in political salience of out-group identities and short- versus long-term differences in the impact on
group dynamics. The implications of our findings for understanding the aftermath of past disasters and effects of
future disasters on intergroup peace and conflict are discussed.
Keywords
Africa, disasters, intergroup relations
Introduction
The question of whether disasters alleviate or aggravate
group prejudice has important implications for inter-
group peace and conflict. Numerous studies in political
science and social psychology emphasize the importance
of psychological intergroup perception and its potential
to affect group relations (Alexander, Brewer & Her-
mann, 1999; Horowitz, 2000; Schori-Eyal, Halperin
& Saguy, 2019). Researchers warn against the dangerous
potential of intergroup prejudice escalating to conflict.
For example, Herrmann (2013) demonstrates how per-
ceptions of an out-group can develop into war, coloni-
alism, or peace.
Yet existing literature on the impact of disasters on
group relations is mixed. Many studies focus on detri-
mental effects (Barlow et al., 2012), identifying disasters
as producing negative intergroup contact that increases
prejudice against minority members (Aberson & Gaff-
ney, 2009; Asbrock, Sibley & Duckitt, 2010; Dhont &
Van Hiel, 2009; Jasinskaja-Lahti, Mahonen & Liebkind,
2011; Stephan et al., 2002) and reduces social trust
(Albrecht, 2018). Other researchers reveal positive con-
sequences, where the common experience of disasters
promotes a sense of ‘closeness’ among survivors
(Kaniasty & Norris, 2013) and an ‘altruism born of
suffering’ (Vollhardt, 2009). Still others argue such
potential positive effects have limits in diverse societies
(Andrighetto et al., 2016; Cuddy, Rock & Norton,
2007; Leyens et al., 2007).
Corresponding author:
eunbin.chung@utah.edu
Journal of Peace Research
2022, Vol. 59(1) 58–72
ªThe Author(s) 2022
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DOI: 10.1177/00223433211065249
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