Does Russian election interference damage support for US alliances? The case of Japan
| Published date | 01 June 2023 |
| DOI | http://doi.org/10.1177/13540661221143214 |
| Author | Benjamin E. Goldsmith,Yusaku Horiuchi |
| Date | 01 June 2023 |
https://doi.org/10.1177/13540661221143214
European Journal of
International Relations
2023, Vol. 29(2) 427 –448
© The Author(s) 2023
Article reuse guidelines:
sagepub.com/journals-permissions
DOI: 10.1177/13540661221143214
journals.sagepub.com/home/ejt
E
JR
I
Does Russian election
interference damage support
for US alliances? The case of
Japan
Benjamin E. Goldsmith
The Australian National University, Australia
Yusaku Horiuchi
Dartmouth College, USA
Abstract
Scholars and practitioners often argue that the United States’ identity as a democracy
contributes to the effectiveness and endurance of US military alliances. One way to
test this claim is to ask: what would happen if citizens of allied countries came to
perceive US democracy as severely flawed or diminished? In the context of now well-
documented Russian interference in recent US elections, we examine whether Russia’s
election interference and its perceived impact on American democracy damage foreign
public opinion about the United States. The results of our survey experiment fielded
in Japan suggest that information about successful Russian election interference—that
is, interference that had an impact on the election outcome—reduces foreign citizens’
faith in the United States as an ally. This pattern most clearly manifests in reduced belief
in the US capacity to defend Japan. Our study sheds light on the connections between
the image of the United States, both as a trustworthy and effective state, and the foreign
public’s attitudes toward US alliances, with theoretical and practical implications.
Keywords
Alliance, soft power, electoral meddling, trust, Trump, Russia, Japan
Corresponding author:
Yusaku Horiuchi, Department of Government, Dartmouth College, 204 Silsby Hall, HB 6108, Hanover, NH
03755, USA.
Email: yusaku.horiuchi@dartmouth.edu
1143214EJT0010.1177/13540661221143214European Journal of International RelationsGoldsmith and Horiuchi
research-article2023
Article
428 European Journal of International Relations 29(2)
Introduction
Scholars and practitioners often discuss the role of democracy in US military alliances.
Indeed, the US image as a democracy, captured in the phrase “leader of the free world,”
has been central to its proclaimed international security role since the end of the Second
World War. Such an assertion is directly related to scholarly inquiries into whether and
why democracies prefer to ally with other democracies (Clare, 2013; Digiuseppe and
Poast, 2018; Lai and Reiter, 2000; Pilster, 2011), and whether and how the identity of the
United States as a democracy contributes to alliance effectiveness and endurance
(Auerswald and Saideman, 2014; Kostadinova, 2000; Saideman and Auerswald, 2012).
These studies further connect with broader theoretical debates about the relevance of
democracy and public opinion in military alliances (Clare, 2013; Conrad, 2017; Hofmann
and Yeo, 2015) and fundamental questions about how regime type and capabilities shape
international relations (Lake, 2018).
Given the alleged relevance of democracy for the US alliance network, a potentially
attractive strategy for a rival non-democratic state might be to weaken the opponent’s
alliances by undermining US democracy. A pertinent question to ask, therefore, is what
would happen if citizens of allied countries came to perceive US democracy as severely
flawed or even came to regard the United States as non-democratic. Certainly, mass
public support for, or opposition to, an alliance is never the only factor in the alliance’s
creation, endurance, or effectiveness. Nevertheless, in democracies, it is likely to play a
role, as existing studies (e.g. Eichenberg, 1989) suggest. On the one hand, a lack of popu-
lar support can permit democratic leaders to seriously reduce commitments, such as
France (1966), New Zealand (1984), and the Philippines (1991) have done in their alli-
ances with the United States. On the other hand, strong public support can help leaders
join an alliance. An example is the seemingly unstoppable process of the North Atlantic
Treaty Organization’s (NATO) eastward enlargement, 1999–2004 (Kostadinova, 2000).
In this global and historical context, we address the current concern about the erosion
of American democracy (e.g. Levitsky and Ziblatt, 2018; Mounk, 2018; Przeworski,
2019) with a focus on an under-investigated but increasingly salient issue in international
relations—interference in one major power’s electoral process by a rival power. While
popular debates on the erosion of American democracy often focus on internal origins,
such as the rise of populism, the polarization of political parties, and declining political
legitimacy, we examine an external origin and its consequences.
Specifically, we focus on Russian interference in US elections in 2016, which pro-
vides a vivid example of a newly prominent arena of major-power confrontation. Among
many possible consequences of Russia’s interference, we examine its impact on foreign
public opinion about the United States as an ally: does Russian interference in US elec-
tions undermine foreign public support for alliance with the United States? Tomz and
Weeks (2020) examine the impacts of election interference on domestic public opinion
in the United States. However, to our knowledge, no existing research examines the
impacts on foreign public opinion.
To examine this question, it is important to make a theoretical distinction between (1)
the trust among citizens of an ally in the US commitment to defend allied countries from
an adversary and (2) their perception that the United States has state capacity to defend
To continue reading
Request your trial