Don’t blame the weather! Climate-related natural disasters and civil conflict
| Date | 01 January 2012 |
| Author | Rune T Slettebak |
| Published date | 01 January 2012 |
| DOI | 10.1177/0022343311425693 |
| Subject Matter | Research Articles |
Don’t blame the weather!Climate-related
natural disasters and civil conflict
Rune T Slettebak
Department of Sociology and Political Science, NTNU & CSCW, PRIO
Abstract
The issue of climate change and security has received much attention in recent years. Still, the results from research
on this topic are mixed and the academic community appears to be far from a consensus on how climate change is
likely to affect stability and conflict risk in affected countries. This study focuses on how climate-related natural dis-
asters such as storms, floods, and droughts have affected the risk of civil war in the past. The frequency of such dis-
asters has risen sharply over the last decades, and the increase is expected to continue due to both climate change and
demographic changes. Using multivariate methods, this study employs a global sample covering 1950 to the present
in order to test whether adding climate-related natural disasters to a well-specified model on civil conflict can increase
its explanatory power. The results indicate that this is the case, but that the relation is opposite to common percep-
tions: Countries that are affected by climate-related natural disasters face a lower risk of civil war. One worrying facet
of the claims that environmental factors cause conflict is that they may contribute to directing attention away from
more important conflict-promoting factors, such as poor governance and poverty. There is a serious risk of misguided
policy to prevent civil conflict if the assumption that disasters have a significant effect on war is allowed to oversha-
dow more important causes.
Keywords
armed conflict, climate change, natural disasters
Introduction
The academic, policy, and popular discussions that sur-
round the issue of climate change predict changing
weather patterns to increase natural disasters. Hurricane
Katrina, which hit the city of New Orleans in 2005,
has given much impetus to this discussion. Tropical
cyclones, floods, heat waves (even cold spells), and
droughts are apparently likely to be more destructive and
carry higher consequences for humans in the future
because rising temperatures (global warming) is expected
to increase the frequency and intensity of these events
(Aalst, 2006; IPCC, 2007a,b). Many even expect these
disasters to increase the risk of violent conflict, which
would create double burdens to states and societies
trying to cope and adjust to climate change. In this
article, I investigate whether there is a systematic
tendency that climate-related natural disasters
1
cause
civil conflict to arise, or re-ignite, within the same or the
following year.
In order to assess whether natural disasters have any
real effect on the risk of armed conflict, an existing,
well-tested model should be used as a starting point.
Only if natural disasters can add explanatory power to
such a model might one be able to be confident in the
proposition that disasters also increase the risk of armed
conflict. I will use one candidate for such a model, devel-
oped by Fearon & Laitin (2003), to test how disasters
affect the risk of civil war onset, when controlling for the
most important other relevant factors. Dixon (2009)
Corresponding author:
rune.slettebak@svt.ntnu.no
1
Unless otherwise specified, I use the term ‘disaster’ to refer to
climate-related natural disasters (storms, droughts, floods, landslides,
extreme temperatures, and wildfires).
Journal of Peace Research
49(1) 163–176
ªThe Author(s) 2012
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DOI: 10.1177/0022343311425693
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