Economic downturns and the Greek referendum of 2015: Evidence using night-time light data
| DOI | 10.1177/1465116520924477 |
| Published date | 01 September 2020 |
| Date | 01 September 2020 |
| Author | Felix Hartmann,Georgios Xezonakis |
| Subject Matter | Articles |
Article
Economic downturns and
the Greek referendum
of 2015: Evidence using
night-time light data
Georgios Xezonakis
Department of Political Science, University of Gothenburg,
Gothenburg, Sweden
Felix Hartmann
Department of Political Science, University of Gothenburg,
Gothenburg, Sweden
Abstract
Much like Brexit, the Greek bailout referendum of 2015 could have been a watershed
event that significantly affectedthe European Economic and Monetary Union and possibly
the European Union as a whole. While the referendum did not live up to the hype, the
fact remains that the Greek people decided to risk ‘exit’ and reject their international
creditors’ bailout terms. In this article, we explore how the cycle of sovereign debt crisis,
the externally imposed austerity and the resulting recession affected the outcome of that
referendum. We further provide a limited test for the ‘left-behind’ hypothesis, which has
been a prominent explanation for recent ‘unexpected’ or ‘surprising’ choices that have
been made at the polls. Using municipality data and noveldata sources, such as night-time
light transmission, we provide aggregate-level support for our expectations.
Keywords
Financial crisis, Greek referendum 2015, night-time light data, voting
Corresponding author:
Georgios Xezonakis, Department of Political Science, University of Gothenburg, 19 Spr€
angkullsgatan,
Gothenburg 411 23, Sweden.
Email: georgios.xezonakis@gu.se
European Union Politics
2020, Vol. 21(3) 361–382
!The Author(s) 2020
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DOI: 10.1177/1465116520924477
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Introduction
Political events such as the British referendum on leaving the European Union
(EU) or the United States (US) presidential election of 2016 are examples of events
that have astonished academics and pundits alike. Citizens have defied party cues,
and frequently the choices made have flown in the face of expert advice and
informed reasoning regarding their potential consequences. In this article, we
focus on a similar case that is part of the same narrative: the Greek referendum
of 2015. The relevance of this case stems not least from its potential to force Greece
to leave the Eurozone and possibly the EU as a whole. Subsequent accounts of the
referendum suggest that ‘Grexit’ was a wholly plausible scenario and for many
citizens it represented the ‘question’ they actually voted on (Walter et al., 2018).
Explanations for the outcome, thus far, mainly originate from journalistic
accounts, opinion pieces, analyses of exit polls or political party press releases.
Scholarly accounts are still scarce with some exceptions (Hansen et al., 2017;
Rontos et al., 2016; Sambanis et al., 2018; Tsatsanis and Teperoglou, 2016;
Walter et al., 2018).
The Greek bailout referendum is in the same class of events such as the surge of
populist parties or the observed non-cooperative voting in foreign policy referen-
dums exemplified by the Brexit referendum. The explanations that have been
offered for both classes of events are similar. First, economic anxieties brought
about by large-scale changes in the labour market through technological progress
and openness to trade (Autor et al., 2016b; Ballard-Rosa et al., 2017; De Vries,
2018; Inglehart and Norris, 2017). Second, cultural anxieties resulting from the
pressures wrought by immigration and the increased emphasis on progressive
values in the developed world since the 1970s (De Vries, 2018; Inglehart and
Norris, 2017). Third, evidence points to increased demands for sovereignty as
citizens and elites seek to regain national governments’ room for manoeuver in
(mainly economic) policy making (Ballard-Rosa et al., 2017). Finally, globalization
(in the form of financial integration) has accentuated the effects of global economic
crises. What follows in many cases is large-scale austerity imposed by debtor
countries on their populations and state assets liquidation through privatizations,
as has been the case in countries in Latin America (Rodrik, 2018).
In this article, we are interested in the economic root cause of the ‘No’ vote in
the 2015 referendum. We test the widely shared hypothesis that the outcome of the
referendum reflects economic developments that have taken place during the 2009–
2015 Greek sovereign debt crisis. These are exemplified in the prolonged austerity
policies and the ensuing recession that has followed (an economic deprivation
thesis). These developments have significantly impacted politics and society in
the post Great Recession Greece (Kosmidis, 2018; Matsaganis and Leventi,
2014; Nezi, 2012).
Our ability to test hypotheses such as these in the Greek context is constrained
by various factors. Publicly available surveys on behaviour, attitudes and socio-
economic characteristics, while not entirely absent (Walter et al., 2018), are quite
362 European Union Politics 21(3)
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