Economics and Politics Revisited: Exploring the Decline in Conservative Support, 1992–1995
| Author | Geoffrey Evans |
| Published date | 01 March 1999 |
| Date | 01 March 1999 |
| DOI | http://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9248.00193 |
| Subject Matter | Article |
Economics and Politics Revisited:
Exploring the Decline in Conservative
Support, 1992±1995
GEOFFREY EVANS1
Nueld College, Oxford
Introduction
The years after the 1992 General Election saw a dramatic decline in support
for the Conservative Party. Opinion polls charted a drop from the 43%
obtained in the April 1992 Ballot to little more than 20% a year later. This
precipitous fall levelled out, but by spring 1995 still only around a ®fth of the
electorate with a party preference intended to vote Conservative if there was a
general election. The reasons for this change in fortune engendered much
journalistic and academic speculation. They have also been examined empiric-
ally through studies of the aggregate relationship between government popular-
ity, trends in the economy and various political events since 1992. Very little
is known, however, about the characteristics and motives of individuals
who deserted the Conservatives during these years. To examine questions
pertaining to the changing behaviour of individual voters we have to eschew the
aggregate data favoured by economic modellers and explore instead the
strengths of survey-based panel analysis in which far more detailed information
on individuals' social characteristics, political attitudes and behaviour can be
examined.
The aims of the analysis are two-fold. The ®rst is primarily descriptive: who
were these departing Tories and what might account for their defection? The
second is more theoretical in focus. By examining the characteristics and
perceptions of voters who switched from the Conservatives and comparing
them with those who remained loyal, inferences can be drawn about the
plausibility of certain theories of voting behaviour and the conditions under
which they apply. In particular, the aim is to evaluate the plausibility of models
of subjective economic voting advanced by David Sanders and his colleagues,2
#Political Studies Association 1999. Published by Blackwell Publishers, 108 CowleyRoad, Oxford OX4 1JF, UK and 350 Main
Street, Malden, MA 02148, USA.
Political Studies (1999), XLVII, 139±151
1The British Election Panel Study data used in this analysis were collected under the auspices of
the Centre for Research into Elections and Social Trends(CREST). CREST is an ESRC designated
research centre (Award no.M 303 253 001) linking Nueld College and Social & Community
Planning Research directed by Anthony Heath and Roger Jowell and co-funded by the Sainsbury
Charitable Trusts. An earlier version of this paper was presented at the annual conference of the
PSA specialist group on Elections, Public Opinion and Parties, Sheeld, September 1996.
2See, among others, D. Sanders, `Government popularity and the next generalelection', Political
Quarterly, 62 (1991), 235±61; D. Sanders, `Economic performance, management competence and
the outcome of the next general election', Political Studies, 44 (1996), 203±31; S. Price and
D. Sanders, `Economic expectations and voting intentions in the UK, 1979±87: a pooled
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