Editorial
| DOI | https://doi.org/10.1108/JMLC-10-2022-151 |
| Published date | 31 October 2022 |
| Date | 31 October 2022 |
| Pages | 717-718 |
| Subject Matter | Accounting & finance,Financial risk/company failure,Financial compliance/regulation,Financial crime |
| Author | William (Bill) Tupman |
Editorial
Gramsci wrote in the Prison Notebooks:“The old is dying and the new cannot yet be born, In
this interregnum a great variety of morbid symptoms appear”. Slavoj Zizek changed the
translation to: “thisis the time of monsters”.
2022 was supposed to be an improvement on 2021, whichwas in turn supposed to be an
improvement on 2020. Two years of COVID, with lockdowns, working from home,
workplaces closing, tourism and the hospitality industry closed down. Fun has definitely
not been on the agenda. Now we have war, sanctions,energy shortages, raw materials being
withheld and the cost of living soaring. Climate change, supposedto be this year’s priority,
has been put on the back burner...with frighteningimplications.
The rules of the game are changing, and the new rules are not yet clear. The old security
architecture is crumbling. A new security architecture will have to be created that takes
hybrid warfare into account, along with economic warfare. A new economic architectureis
being created by default, with a world once again divided between west and east, with no
obvious states to act as bridges between the two, unless it be the oil sheikhs of the Middle
East. One thing is for sure...the bad guys willbe ahead of the creation process, scoping new
opportunities for themselves to pillage the planet. States will posture and even resort to
military means, but the organised crime networks will be there finding workarounds. The
big money will be in people smuggling as states throw up barriers to immigration, and
sanctions evasion as governments look for ways to win headlines without dealing with
issues. The smugglingof raw materials also looks like a major opportunityagain.
One rule that won’t change is the law of unintended consequences. So far the “special
military operation”in Ukraine has failedin its apparent original objectives and instead has
succeeded in creatinga shared sense of identity among people living in Ukraine,and uniting
the member states of the European Union (EU) in collective response,although by the time
this editorial is printed, they may be disagreeing again,particularly over oil and gas. It has
also succeeded in enabling NATO to expand into countries that have resisted joining since
its inception. Sanctions against Russia have disrupted energy supplies and prices, grain
supplies and food prices,fertiliser supplies and the “just in time”economic model. It is worth
remembering that a couple of years ago, Europol pointedout in their threat assessment that
organised crime was buying up small refineriesthat the big companies were getting rid of.
Coincidence, analysisor intelligence?
The second, related rule that won’t change, is of course, legislate in haste, repent at
leisure. Sanctions will be testedin the courts and loopholes will be found. Oligarchs will still
have the money to fight the confiscation of their assets and the allegations that they are
“close to Putin”. In the process,judges will take decisions that will affect thepractice of asset
freezing and confiscationmore generally.
Governments may be back in fashion. Laissez faire and the market are no longer
sovereign. Unfortunately, the political class and public service are woefully short of talent,
which earns more in financial services or video gaming. There are no Bismarcks,
Talleyrands, Zhou Enlais or even Castlereaghs around. Kissinger is still with us, but
ignored. There are no great statespersons around to negotiate a way out of this mess with
each other. There is no call for a return to the Nineteenth Century Congresssystem to meet
and sort out conflicts on a regular basis. In fact the reverse is happening: the “West”is
excluding the Russians and Chinese from their deliberations and building a new
containment system.
Editorial
717
Journalof Money Laundering
Control
Vol.25 No. 4, 2022
pp. 717-718
© Emerald Publishing Limited
1368-5201
DOI 10.1108/JMLC-10-2022-151
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