Electoral support and militants’ targeting strategies
| Date | 01 March 2022 |
| Author | David Carlson,Deniz Aksoy |
| Published date | 01 March 2022 |
| DOI | 10.1177/00223433211047719 |
| Subject Matter | Regular Articles |
Electoral support and militants’
targeting strategies
Deniz Aksoy
Department of Political Science, Washington University in St Louis
David Carlson
Department of International Relations, Koç University
Abstract
Militant groups that are in armed conflict with a government often coexist with political parties that have ethnic
or ideological connections to them. In this article, we explore the extent to which electoral support received by
militant associated opposition parties and nationally incumbent political parties influences subnational variation
in militant attacks. We argue, and empirically demonstrate, that militants strategically target localities where the
levels of electoral support for the opposition party and the nationally incumbent party are close in an effort to
negatively influence the electoral performance of the incumbent party. To illustrate this dynamic we examine
subnational data from 1995 to 2015 Turkish legislative elections and attacks organized by the Kurdish militants
within the same time period. We also examine the impact of June 2015 legislative elections on militant attacks
until the snap elections in November 2015. Our empirical examination shows that militants target localities
where electoral support for the governing party and Kurdish opposition party is close. Moreover, increase in
violence negatively influences the electoral performance of the governing party. However, it does notconsistently
have a significant influence on the opposition. The findings illustrate that militants strategically choose the
location of their attacks based on electoral dynamics, and attacks can pose an electoral challenge to the governing
party.
Keywords
elections, militant attacks, political parties, Turkish politics
Introduction
In many countries that experience internal armed
conflict, militant groups coexist with one or more polit-
ical parties which have ethnic or ideological connections
to the groups (Weinberg, Pedahzur & Perlinger, 2009;
Altier, Martin & Weinberg, 2013; Acosta, 2014; Stani-
land, 2015; Matanock, 2017). In Spain, Basque nation-
alist political parties have competed in elections as
Euskadi Ta Askatasuna (ETA) was using violent tactics
to seek independence for the Basque people.
1
In Turkey,
several Kurdish political parties including Democra tic
Society Party (DTP), Peace and Democracy Party
(BDP), and People’s Democracy Party (HDP) have
worked to mobilize the Kurdish minority while militant
group Partiya Karkere
ˆn Kurdistan (PKK) has been con-
ducting attacks in the country. According to one of the
earlier studies on parties and political violence, between
1910 and 1990, out of 430 militant groups, 203 groups
had some connection to political parties (Weinberg, Ped-
ahzur & Perlinger, 2009: 29). Focusing more broadly on
formal ties between militant groups and political parties,
Corresponding author:
denizaksoy@wustl.edu
1
For example Herri Batasuna competed in elections from 1979 until
it was banned by the Supreme Court in 2003. The connections
between the party and ETA was widely acknowledged.
Journal of Peace Research
2022, Vol. 59(2) 229–241
ªThe Author(s) 2021
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DOI: 10.1177/00223433211047719
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