Energy in Decline: a Cause of Conflict—or Forcing International Co-Operation?
| Published date | 01 October 1978 |
| Date | 01 October 1978 |
| DOI | 10.1177/004711787800600203 |
| Author | Ernest Haseler |
| Subject Matter | Articles |
374
ENERGY
IN
DECLINE:
A
CAUSE
OF
CONFLICT—OR
FORCING
INTERNATIONAL
CO-OPERATION?
by
ERNEST
HASELER
INTRODUCTION
A
new
dimension,
energy,
has
become
a
dominant
influence
in
international
relations
and
it
is
causing
changes
of
critical
import-
ance
that
require
to
be
thoroughly
understood
by
all
responsible
people.
The
narrowing
gap
between
declining
global
fuel
resources
and
their
increasing
consumption
is
not
only
a
threat
to
the
civilised
way
of
life
but
a
potential
danger
to
peaceful
co-existence
or,
optimistically,
is
it
a
reason
which
will
compel
all
nations
to
work
together
to
overcome
a
common
problem?
Some
of
those
who
have
experienced
wars
and
seen
from
history
that
the
human
race,
unlike
other
animals,
has
habitually
resorted
to
mass
killing
of
its
own
kind,
have
said
despairingly
that
it
would
need
a
Martian
invasion
to
make
all
earthmen
fight
side
by
side.
Perhaps
the
fear
of
civilisation
being
deprived
of
sufficient
energy
to
sustain
it
will
eventually
have
the
same
effect!
ENERGY
POLICIES
The
policies
of
nations,
or
absence
of
them,
could
result
in
one
of
these
courses
being
followed
1.
Sharing
their
experience
and
co-ordinating
their
efforts
with
those
of
others
in
expediting
massive
energy
conservation
campaigns
and
the
development
of
new
sources
of
energy.
Ensuring
that
energy
supplies
are
fairly
shared
and
carefully
used,
yet
without
harm
to
the
quality
of
living
standards.
2.
Obtaining
and
storing
as
much
fuel
as
possible
without
regard
to
the
needs
of
other
nations.
3.
Continuing
an
attitude
of
laissez
faire,
the
easiest,
but
most
dangerous
course
both
for
themselves
and
for
international
relations
because
by
failing
to
use
demonstrably
successful
fuel-
saving
measures
they
will
continue
the
dissipation
of
fuels
desperately
needed
by
other
nations.
4.
Pursuing
overtly,
oi
openly,
an
&dquo;energy
war&dquo;,
by
methods
such
as
coercion,
peaceful
penetration
and
political
intrigue,
to
ensure
energy
and
fuel
resources
for
themselves
and
their
allies.
Trying
to
stop
fuels
and
electricity
reaching
countries
375
thought
likely
to
be
unfriendly
or
potential
enemies
in
the
event
of
international
polarisation.
INEQUALITIES
OF
ENERGY
CONSUMPTIONS
PER
CAPITA
The
gross
inequalities
of
energy
consumption
per
capita,
as
indicated
in
the
United
Nations
Statistics,
and
the
implication
of
&dquo;energy
guzzling&dquo;
by
some
nations
and
energy
poverty
suffered
by
others
could
be,
if
not
in
itself,
a causus
belli,
a
catalyst
in
a
world-
wide
reaction
resulting
from
other
aggravations.
TABLE
1
CONSUMPTIONS
OF
ENERGY
PER
CAPITA
in
kg
coal
equivalent
in
the
year
UN
STATISTICS
1977<1
1
United
Nations
Statistical
Year
Book
pp.373-375,
New
York,
October
1977.
376
There
can
be
few
people
concerned
with
international
relations
who
are
unaware
of
these
appalling
inequalities
of
fuel
consump-
tions
per
capita
and
that
the
USA
is
the
most
quoted
example
of
extreme
extravagance.
This
is
surprising
in
view
of
her
advantages
of
outstanding
financial
and
material
resources,
advanced
technolog-
ies
and
enormous
research
and
development
achievements
that
could
have
made
her
a
world
leader
in
energy
economy.
If
the
USA’s
genius
was
applied
vigorously
to
energy
conservation
in
all
its
aspects,
the
energy
used
per
capita
could,
as
a
start,
be
halved,
to
equal
those
of
other
advanced
industrialised
nations
in
Europe.
The
impending
peaking-out
of
oil
and
gas
resources
makes
it
intolerable
that
a
twentieth
of
the
world’s
population
should
consume
a
third
of
its
total
energy
usage.
The
U.N.
Statistics
show
that
other
advanced
countries
are
also
extravagant
in
their
use
of
fuels
although
not
to
the
same
extent.
DRASTIC
CHANGES
NEEDED
FOR
FAIRER
SHARES
It
will
need
drastic
changes
and
a
global
campaign
to
halt
the
unfair
sharing
of
energy,
partly
caused
by
fuel
wastage
by
a
minority
of
the
world’s
population.
There
are
thoroughly
proven
technologies,
described
later,
by
which
fuels
are
being
converted
very
efficiently
to
useful
energy
and
others
that
provide
eneigy
from
alternative
sources.
The
campaign
will
have
to
be
given
high
priority
and
intensive
allocations
of
investment
and
resources.
If
greater
equality
of
energy
consumption
per
capita
is
not
achieved
speedily
then
it
seems
inevitable
that
there
will
be
a
rising
tide
of
discontent,
friction
and
probably
a
demand
for
sanctions
by
countries,
developed
and
developing,
with
inadequate
fuels
for
the
necessities
of
civilised
life.
To
help
build
the
foundations
of
a
peaceful
and
fairer
world
order,
the
duty
for
industrialised
nations,
and
those
developing
as
such,
is
not
only
to
reduce
their
own
per
capita
fuel
consumptions
but
to
use
their
knowledge,
experience
and
resources
to
help
others
to
do
so.
In
this
way
the
Third
World
will
have
its
fair
share.
NATIONS
ARE
INTERDEPENDENT
ON
ENERGY
It
is
worthwhile
to
look
at
a
few
of
the
abundant
examples
of
international
interdependence
in
the
form
of
agreements
on
fuel
supplies;
pipelines;
power
lines;
co-operation
in
fuel
exploration;
exchanges
of
knowledge,
experience
and
experts;
and
to
assess
to
what
degree
they
are
signs
of
nations
having
to
start
to
work
together.
The
adage
that
adversity
makes
strange
bedfellows
of
us
all
seems
to
be
endorsed
by
some
of
the
following
random
examples
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