ESTIMATES OF THE NUMBER OF CURRENTLY AVAILABLE SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNICAL PERIODICALS
| Published date | 01 February 1967 |
| DOI | https://doi.org/10.1108/eb026424 |
| Pages | 110-116 |
| Date | 01 February 1967 |
| Author | K.P. BARR |
| Subject Matter | Information & knowledge management,Library & information science |
ESTIMATES OF THE NUMBER OF CURRENTLY
AVAILABLE SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNICAL PERIODICALS
K. P. BARR
National
Lending
Library for
Science and
Technology,
Boston
Spa
Published estimates of the number of scientific and technical periodicals
currently being published are analysed. A new estimate is put forward
based on the experience of the NLL in attempting to build up a compre-
hensive collection of the world's scientific and technical periodical litera-
ture.
ESTIMATES of
the
number of scientific and technical periodicals currently
being published vary from 100,0001,2 to 30,000.3 Details of
a
number of
these estimates are given by Gottschalk and Desmond in their 'Worldwide
census of scientific and technical serials'.4 These authors estimate that 35,000
such titles existed in
1962.
With the exception of the 'Worldwide census'
which gives full details of how the figure was determined, it is difficult, if
not
impossible,
to find out how the estimates were made or what definition
of a 'scientific and technical periodical' was used.
All these estimates have one thing in common: they have been arrived at
by analysing lists of serial titles. A new estimate of the number of scientific
and technical periodicals being published at the end of
1965
is put forward
here.
This estimate is 26,000 titles, and it is based on the experience of the
National Lending Library in attempting to acquire all scientific and tech-
nical periodicals for its loan collection. It differs from previous estimates in
being based on
the
number of periodical titles actually received at the NLL.
Since this estimate is considerably lower than all others, it
is
necessary to
examine, firstly, why previous estimates are higher and, secondly, the
reasons for considering the present estimate to be more accurate.
The estimates of 100,000 scientific periodicals currently being published
are probably based on
a
misunderstanding of a graph published by De Solla
Price in
1961.5
By plotting the number of periodicals against date, he
showed that the growth rate was exponential. This graph has been widely
quoted as showing, firstly, that there is a fifteen-year doubling period for
scientific periodicals and, secondly, that there were 100,000 current scien-
tific periodicals in 1960. In fact, as pointed out by Orr and Leeds in their
work on biomedical literature,6 De Solla Price explicitly states in a subse-
quent book,3 in which the graph was reproduced, that
his
figures represent
the number of periodicals founded and do not take into account those that
subsequently ceased publication. His estimate of the number of periodicals
actually being published in 1963 was 30,000.
110
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