Explaining Opposition to Turkish Membership of the EU
| Author | Lauren M. McLaren |
| Published date | 01 June 2007 |
| Date | 01 June 2007 |
| DOI | http://doi.org/10.1177/1465116507076432 |
| Subject Matter | Articles |
Explaining Opposition to
Turkish Membership of
the EU
Lauren M. McLaren
University of Nottingham, UK
ABSTRACT
This article examines EU citizen attitudes to Turkey’s bid to
join the EU. The key theoretical constructs investigated to
explain opposition to Turkey’s EU membership are related
to rational economic self-interest and group-level interests
and concerns. The findings indicate that the former are
irrelevant for distinguishing between opponents and
supporters of Turkey’s candidacy, while the latter do provide
fairly powerful explanations for opposition to Turkish EU
membership. However, because these factors do not
completely explain overall levels of hostility to Turkey’s
candidacy, context is also introduced, particularly the
threatening context provided by Turkish migration. The find-
ings indicate that migration from Turkey to some of the EU
member states has combined with feelings of group pro-
tectiveness to produce widespread animosity to Turkey’s
entry into the EU.
251
European Union Politics
DOI: 10.1177/1465116507076432
Volume 8 (2): 251–278
Copyright© 2007
SAGE Publications
Los Angeles, London, New Delhi
and Singapore
KEY WORDS
enlargement
Europe
multi-level modelling
public opinion
threat
Turkey
Turkish entry into the European Union (EU) is a highly contentious issue. As
the country continues to make political and economic reforms in the hopes
of being granted a definite entry date, it appears quite possible that the
country’s admission into the EU could be halted by EU citizens, regardless
of what decision their leaders reach with respect to Turkey’s membership.
The French debate surrounding the (failed) referendum on the European
Constitution, in which some of the public argued that the referendum could
be used as a vote against Turkey’s candidacy, is only one indication of the
virulence of opinion regarding this particular candidacy. As with many
important EU policy decisions (e.g. those outlined in the Constitutional Treaty
and the Treaty on European Union), it is possible that EU citizens themselves
will make the final decision on whether Turkey is allowed to join the EU.
Because of the high degree of citizen relevance to this particular decision, it
is important that mass opinion regarding the Turkish candidacy is analysed.
This is the purpose of this article.
Turkey first became affiliated with the EU in 1963 after signing an
associate membership agreement with the then European Community (EC).
Although the country might have taken the opportunity to apply for full EC
membership at the same time that Greece applied in 1975, its leaders failed
to do so, citing the need to develop further economically before gaining full
entry to the EU (Eralp, 1993; Müftüler-Baç, 1997). It was not until the EC was
in the midst of an already difficult Southern Enlargement that Turkey lodged
its application for full EC membership (in 1987). This is also the first point at
which we gain some indication of the feelings of the European mass public
on the issue of Turkey joining the EU. Shortly before the Turkish application
was lodged, a Eurobarometer poll conducted in the Spring of 1986 asked
respondents the following: ‘Supposing Turkey asked to be admitted as a
member country of the European Community (Common Market). What
would be your opinion?’ Even at this early stage, support was not over-
whelming: approximately 20% of EC citizens were favourable to this idea and
about 30% were opposed; the rest of the public was indifferent. In what might
now be seen as a sign of things to come, France displayed the greatest oppo-
sition, after Greece, to the idea of Turkey joining the EU. Still, slightly less
than 50% in France and exactly 50% in Greece were opposed. Since the late
1990s, overall opposition to Turkey’s candidacy has remained close to 50%
(for instance, opposition was at 47% in the autumn of 1999 and 49% in the
autumn of 2002). Table 1 indicates that, in comparison with other countries
that were official candidates for EU membership prior to 2004, opposition to
Turkey’s candidacy has consistently been the strongest. Table 2 provides
levels of opposition to Turkey’s candidacy by EU member state, and indicates
that there are vast differences across EU member states regarding feelings
about Turkey’s candidacy.
European Union Politics 8(2)
252
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