Exploring ethical approaches to evaluate future technology scenarios
| Date | 31 August 2005 |
| Pages | 143-150 |
| Published date | 31 August 2005 |
| DOI | https://doi.org/10.1108/14779960580000268 |
| Author | David J. LePoire |
| Subject Matter | Information & knowledge management |
Exploring ethical approaches to evaluate
future technology scenarios
INTRODUCTION
Technology development and use is one of the dis-
tinguishing human characteristics. Throughout his-
tory, technological developments have led to new
opportunities and problems as civilizations pro-
gressed through periods where work focused on
agriculture, organizational structures, trade, indus-
try, services, and knowledge work (Covey, 2004).
However, increasing rates of technological change,
as experienced in information technology, have led
to major qualitative and quantitative changes with-
in project and educational life cycles. Although
productivity has improved, information technology
advances have also created many problems, such as
unanticipated risks (spam, identity theft), increased
stress, and social changes through job movement
and investment uncertainty. Technological change
seems to be continuing with advances and conver-
gence of information technology, biotechnology,
and emerging nanotechnology (Mulhall, 2002).
This rapid change in the way information tech-
nology is applied to perform work might con-
tribute to the growing inequality in incomes. For
example, Covey (2004) points out that some of the
top computer programmers are orders of magni-
tude more productive than the average program-
mer. This greater disparity might be related to a
change in the productivity distribution of knowl-
edge workers. Specialization in a professional field
is still a factor in determining productivity.
However, there are now additional requirements as
Info, Comm & Ethics in Society (2005) 3: 143-150
© 2005 Troubador Publishing Ltd.
David J. LePoire
Environmental Assessment Division, Argonne National Laboratory.
Email: dlepoire@anl.gov
The integration of technology into the workplace has resulted in a long trend of changing working conditions, from agri-
culture to today’s growing “knowledge economy.” This latest development depends on information technology, which
may continue to evolve through eventual convergence with nanotechnology and biotechnology. Knowledge work
places more emphasis on an expanded skill set, as opposed to the smaller set of specialized skills typically needed in
an industrial economy. Future technological progress might lead to further enhancement of human potential or to even
greater inequality (individual and national) in income distribution, generating even larger pressures toward the divi-
sions in society. This is illustrated by recently proposed scenarios of accelerated and logistic growth of technological
progress. In an attempt to understand these dynamics, a simple model is constructed to clarify a possible relationship
between technology and social systems. The model, based on the technology maturation process, focuses on the delay
in social systems in responding to a technological change. Examples of current problems of technology and social
issues are reviewed in the model’s context. Some potential approaches to framing these problems from an ethical view-
point are reviewed, including applying Rawlsian concepts of fairness and the “veil of ignorance” and applying a simple
discount rate to balance perceived future risks, technological solutions, and uncertainty.
Keywords: technological progress, ethical impacts, ethical evaluation, social systems
VOL 3 NO 3 JULY 2005 143
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