“Firm in principles, flexible in strategy and tactics”
| Date | 01 March 2017 |
| Author | Thuy T Do |
| DOI | 10.1177/2057891116677350 |
| Published date | 01 March 2017 |
| Subject Matter | Research articles |
Research article
“Firm in principles, flexible
in strategy and tactics”:
Understanding the logic
of Vietnam’s China policy
Thuy T Do
The Australian National University, Australia
Abstract
Since 1991, Vietnam has adopted a dual strategic position towards China: it sees China as an
indispensable economic and security partner and simultaneously it seeks to hedge against China’s
possible territorial encroachment by gradually beefing up its military and cautiously forging
strategic ties with other powers. The making of Vietnam’s current China policy is predominantly
shaped by the interplay of two constants (geography and history) and two variables (China’s
policy and changing big power relations). Among these factors, geography and history serve as the
basis for understanding Vietnam’s hedging policy vis-a-vis China and explain why thus far Hanoi
remains very reluctant to enter an alliance to counter China’s rise. While being firm on its
independent policy, Vietnam has become more “flexible in strategy and tactics” in rebalancing
itself from China’s orbit towards the West’s as the result of China’s increased assertiveness in the
South China Sea disputes.
Keywords
escape China’s orbit, hedging, Sino-Vietnamese relations, South China Sea disputes, tyranny of
geography, Vietnam’s China policy
Among China’s neighbours, Vietnam is arguably the country which has undergone the most
complicated history with it. On the one hand, no East Asian countries are more culturally and
ideologically similar to China than Vietnam. On the other hand, few other countries have been as
defiant as Vietnam in resisting Chinese bullying to preserve their own independence. Andrew
Forbes (2007) once described Vietnam’s perspective vis-a-vis China with a love-hate metaphor.
Corresponding author:
Thuy T Do, Department of International Relations, The Hedley Bull Centre, Coral Bell School of Asia-Pacific Affairs #2.18,
The Australian National University, Canberra 0200, Australia.
Email: thuy.t.do@anu.edu.au
Asian Journal of Comparative Politics
2016, Vol. 2(1) 24–39
ªThe Author(s) 2016
Reprints and permission:
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DOI: 10.1177/2057891116677350
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It is this contradiction that has contributed to shaping Vietnamese identity and worldview over time
and explaining the fluctuations of the bilateral relationship in the past decades. During the Cold
War, Sino-Vietnamese relations dramatically shifted from one spectrum to another: from “lip-and-
teeth allies”in the 1950s to “arch enemies”in the late 1970s. Since the normalization of ties in
1991, Vietnam has adopted a dual strategic position towards China: it sees China as an indis-
pensable economic and security partner and simultaneously it seeks to hedge against China’s
possible territorial encroachment by gradually beefing up its military and cautiously forging
strategic ties with other powers.
This strategic ambivalence faced a litmus test in early May 2014 when Hanoi saw the worst
crisis in its relations with China in the post-Cold War era. The placement of China’s giant HD-981
oil rig in Vietnam’s claimed exclusive economic zone (EEZ) and the tense vessel confrontation
between the two coast guards for almost 10 weeks not only sparked large anti-China protests
throughout Vietnam but also precipitated a heated internal discussion on the need to rethink
Vietnam’s China policy—how to escape China’s orbit. At the height of the crisis, some of the
most radical elements within the Vietnamese intelligentsia suggested that the country should build
strategic alliances with the US and its partners as a counter-measure to China’s possible territorial
encroachment. Some scholars even suggested that the oil rig incident was “a game changer in
Sino-Vietnamese relations”whereby the bilateral relationship had passed “the point of no return”
(Vuving, 2015). Despite such pessimism about Sino-Vietnamese relations and optimism for rap-
prochement with the US and the West, Hanoi thus far remains very keen on its independent foreign
policy and is very reluctant to choose sides between China and the US. How can we explain the
logic behind Hanoi’s strategic thinking?
When answering this puzzle, existing literature tends to adopt the realist lenses of balance of
power and/or the liberal lenses of economic interdependence and Vietnam’s domestic politics.
Vietnam desires to counter China’s rise and its increasing assertiveness in the South China Sea but
its concerns about ideology and regime legitimacy make it hard for Hanoi to make bold moves
towards a US embrace (see, for example, Liu and Sun, 2015). The political struggle among various
factions within the Vietnamese government further complicates the making of its China policy
(Vuving, 2010).
1
Some other Vietnam experts meanwhile argue that understanding Vietnam’s
strategy vis-a-vis China requires an eclectic paradigm or calibrated mixture of realist, liberal,
idealist, and cultural components (e.g. Le, 2013; Vuving, 2006). While not dismissing the impact
of these various factors in shaping Vietnam’s China policy, this article posits that Hanoi’s strategic
calculations are more coherent and future-oriented thinking than one may think. Nearly two
decades ago, Carl Thayer and Ramses Amer (1999: 219) concluded in their important volume
Vietnamese Foreign Policy in Transition that “Vietnam has lost its ideological paradigm but not
found another”. I argue in this article that Vietnam has managed to find a direction for its foreign
policy. A general consensus has been forged among Vietnamese policy-makers regarding the
direction of Vietnam’s foreign policy overall and its China policy in particular. Given Vietnam’s
proximity to and complicated history with China, an autonomous and independent foreign policy
centering on the principle of “firm in objectives, flexible in strategies and tactics”(dĩbấtbiến, ứng
vạnbiến) in the eyes of Vietnamese policy-makers best serves the country’s interests, amid the
changing geopolitical landscape in Asia stemming from China’s rapid rise and its increased
assertiveness in territorial disputes.
To ascertain why that is the case, this article proceeds as follows. It will first identify the
constants and variables which shape Vietnam’s current China policy. Vietnam’s strategic thinking
vis-a-vis China has its roots in the self-evaluation of the country’s geopolitics as well as historical
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