Food price increase and urban unrest: The role of societal organizations
| Date | 01 March 2021 |
| DOI | 10.1177/0022343319899705 |
| Published date | 01 March 2021 |
| Subject Matter | Regular Articles |
Food price increase and urban unrest:
The role of societal organizations
Ida Rudolfsen
Uppsala University & Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO)
Abstract
Under what conditions do increasing food prices lead to urban unrest? Existing literature suggests a positive
correlation between food prices and social unrest. Meanwhile, there is a large variation in the consequences of
increasing food prices, indicating that this phenomenon has a heterogeneous effect across different contexts. The
theoretical focus on grievances in the existing literature appears to be insufficient for explaining the variations in
outcome. This study asks whether specific features in the domestic institutional setting can explain why food-price
induced grievances sometimes lead to unrest and at other times do not. Specifically, the article argues that the
manifestation of unrest when food prices increase is moderated by the degree to which the state represses societal
organizations. Civil and political society have the potential to channel collective dissent around food-related
grievances, as these organizations provide existing mobilization structures that people can draw on to engage in
collective action. Further, they can translate an individual-level grievance into a group phenomenon by politicizing
the cost of food through the formulation of grievance frames. If the state represses existing societal organizations
that can help aggrieved individuals engage in collective action to voice discontent – or introduces barriers to initial
mobilization – this will likely reduce the possibility of unrest when food prices go up. Using institutional data from
the Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) project combined with the Social Conflict Analysis Database (SCAD), the
findings suggest that repression of societal organizations decreases the likelihood of unrest when food prices rise.
Keywords
Africa, food price, societal organizations, state repression, urban unrest
Introduction
The last decade has seen high volatility in international
commodity prices. The cost of food peaked at historic
levels in 2008, and the prices of major foodstuffs
increased rapidly again in 2010–11. Around 150 low-
and middle-income countries were affected by the
increasing food prices – where the sudden increase in
international prices led to rising inflation domestically
– mainly hurting poor consumers who spend a substan-
tial share of their income on food (Tadesse et al., 2014;
Abbott & de Battisti, 2011; Ivanic & Martin, 2008).
During the food price spikes, several countries in Asia,
Africa, Latin America, and the Middle East experienced
some form of contentious action, from nonviolent
demonstrations to large-scale deadly events (Bellemare,
2015; Harsch, 2008; van Weezel, 2016).
The widespread unrest that followed the food price
spikes has led to a renewed interest in the relationship
between food prices and domestic instability. Previous
studies have largely found a positive correlation between
food prices and unrest. However, the large variation in
the consequences of increasing food prices – from no
reaction to widespread unrest – suggests this phenom-
enon has a diverse effect. Sometimes it leads to visible
and extensive protests, but at other times any backlash is
difficult to detect. For example, the cost of food in Tuni-
sia increased by over 4% from July to August 1990, and
then again by over 8% in September of that year, but the
Corresponding author:
idarud@prio.org
Journal of Peace Research
2021, Vol. 58(2) 215–230
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DOI: 10.1177/0022343319899705
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country saw no record of urban unrest.
1
Also, Morocco
saw multiple peaks in food prices in the early 1990s, but
no demonstrations or riots. Other examples include
Ethiopia during the summer of 2008 and Mauritania
in late 2014. Hence, there is an interesting unexplained
variation in the consequences of food price increase that
needs to be addressed.
Arguably, one of the most important factors in shap-
ing the domestic political sphere is state institutions, as
they determine the extent to which people have the
possibility to mobilize and engage in collective action.
This article focuses on the aspects of state repression that
are directed towards societal organizations
2
working as
collective agents for mobilization. Food-related grie-
vances tend to be everyday and mass-based, and as such
they represent an interest that often lacks organizational
backing. I argue that an important step in the transfor-
mation of an individual grievance into collective dissent
when food prices go up is the involvement of organized
groups in society. When societal organizations decide to
focus on increasing food prices, ind ividual-level food-
related grievances can be articulated and addressed as
part of a group phenomenon. Societal organizations (1)
provide a set of existing mobilization structures and
resources that people can draw on in collective action,
and (2) articulate perceptions of hardship related to food,
translating an individual-level grievance into a group
characteristic by politicizing the cost of food through the
construction of grievance frames. Both of these aspects
allow individuals to become part of a stronger group with
the capacity to make specific demands.
The circumstances under which societal organizations
are allowed to form and act, here referred to as the orga-
nizational environment, are shaped by the degree to
which the state controls the formation of societal orga-
nizations, and the extent to which it represses already
existing groups. The state influences and moulds the
ability and opportunity for people to engage in social
unrest when food prices rise. Given the variation in con-
sequences of food price on unrest, I argue that the rela-
tionship between increasing food prices and urban unrest
is moderated by the degree of repression of societal orga-
nizations, and that looking at the organizational space
available for these groups can help illuminate why unrest
during food price spikes occurs in some instances but not
in others. Addressing this gap in the literature, this article
examines how increasing food prices in the mostly
consumer-based urban sector in Africa affects the like-
lihood of unrest. It argues that changes in food price give
stronger incentives for the urban consumer class to
engage in unrest due to increased hardship, but that
outbreaks of unrest are conditional on the degree to
which the state represses societal organizations. If the
state is able to restrict or remove structures that facilitate
collective action, this will reduce the likelihood of unrest.
To test the proposed conditional relationship, the
analysis uses country-month data on urban unrest and
food price fluctuations, combined with data on the pres-
ence and nature of civil society organizations and polit-
ical parties, from 1990 to 2014. The analysis makes an
important contribution by taking into account not only
the varying levels of food price spikes across countries,
but also the presence of societal organizations and their
capacity to act. Further, instead of focusing on a broad
concept of regime type, the article disaggregates and
identifies specifically which instit utions matter in this
context. The article also makes a theoretical contribution
by pointing to how societal organizations might help
translate food-related challenges on the individual level,
often widespread but mundane, into a community phe-
nomenon by politicizing the price of food.
The results indicate support for the proposition that a
constrained organizational environment reduces the like-
lihood of urban unrest when food prices go up. The
occurrence of unrest is contingent on the ability of orga-
nizations to engage in collective action. More specifi-
cally, state repression of CSOs, widespread party bans,
and barriers to party formation decrease the probability
of unrest when food prices increase. However, I do not
find that the most open and unconstrained societies see
the most unrest. The findings suggest that countries are
more likely to experience unrest when there is only mod-
erate repression and barriers to formation – a positive
predicted change in the probability of unrest exists where
there is an institutional makeup that is somewhat repres-
sive, yet still allows for some form of participation in civil
and political society. The findings indicate that the link
between rising food prices and urban unrest is indeed
context specific: the effect of rising food prices on unrest
is contingent on the degree of state repression of societal
organizations.
The findings have a number of broader implications.
First, they suggest that unrest within the context of
increasing food prices is not necessarily inherently pro-
blematic, but can be a sign of the citizens being able to
react. Unrest in these circumstances is a manifestation of
1
This is the highest food price peak registered in the region between
1990 and 2014.
2
The term ‘societal organizations’ is here understood as consisting of
both civil society organizations (CSOs) and political parties.
216 journal of PEACE RESEARCH 58(2)
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