From Theory into Practice: Introducing the Reference Class Problem
| Published date | 01 October 2007 |
| Date | 01 October 2007 |
| DOI | 10.1350/ijep.2007.11.4.243 |
| Author | Paul Roberts |
| Subject Matter | Article |
INTRODUCING THE REFERENCE CLASS PROBLEM
From theory into
practice: introducing the
reference class problem
By Paul Roberts*
Professor of Criminal Jurisprudence, University of Nottingham
ver 10 years since we last published a special issue of the journal,1it is
high time for another. The articles in this edition of E & P constitute a
Special Issue in which prominent legal scholars, philosophers and scien-
tists debate ‘the reference class problem’ and its applications to legal proceedings.
Specialist researchers and other aficionados of these debates will require no
further prompting to be inspired to read the latest contributions by Ron Allen and
Michael Pardo, Dale Nance, Mark Colyvan and Helen Regan, Robert Rhee, and
Larry Laudan to a topic which these authors have addressed before, and which
they have themselves done much to bring to prominence. In this special issue
symposium, the contributors endeavour to clarify their previously stated
positions and lock horns on particular points of contention. For the benefit of the
general reader, however, some prefatory remarks placing the reference class
problem in its broader forensic context are in order.
Reference Class 101
Despite its superficially esoteric and (suspiciously?) mathematical connotations,
the reference class problem is actually pervasive to legal adjudication, and will
have been encountered in some form or another by every legal practitioner and
scholar of legal procedure, albeit not necessarily identified by name. Indeed, the
reference class problem is a nice illustration of William Twining’s too-little-
appreciated insight that inquiries into proof and fact-finding, which are often
unreflectively dismissed as arcane, are actually far more ‘practical’ than much of
THE INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF EVIDENCE & PROOF (2007) 11 E&P 243–254 243
1 Ron Allen and Mike Redmayne (eds), Bayesianism and Juridical Proof (1997) 1 E & P 253–360.
O
* Email: paul.roberts@nottingham.ac.uk.
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