Homicide clearance: Discretionary and non-discretionary factors
| Published date | 01 May 2023 |
| DOI | http://doi.org/10.1177/14773708221136049 |
| Author | Alberto Aziani,Christian Persurich |
| Date | 01 May 2023 |
| Subject Matter | Articles |
Homicide clearance:
Discretionary and
non-discretionary factors
Alberto Aziani
Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore and Transcrime, Italy
Christian Persurich
Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Italy
Abstract
Previous studies have produced mixed findings regarding discretionary and non-discretionary fac-
tors associated with the likelihood of homicides being cleared. Performing Pearson’sχ
2
test, logis-
tic regressions, and random forest analyses on all homicide cases that occurred in Italy in 2014, we
assess if factors pertaining to the discretionary domain –that is, nationality, age, sex, socio-
economic status of the victim, previous convictions –and non-discretionary factors –for example,
weapon, location, circumstance –are correlated with the outcome of the investigation. The empir-
ical analysis does not identify relations between victims’nationality, socioeconomic status, previ-
ous criminal records and homicide clearance. On the other hand, homicides whose victim is male
are less likely to be cleared. While high media coverage correlates with a higher clearance rate,
low media coverage is not correlated with the homicide case remaining unsolved. Finally, especially
in Southern Italy where mafia organizations are more entrenched, homicides committed in a crim-
inal environment have a lower chance of being cleared. With respect to Italy, the results indicate a
lack of support for the discretionary perspective that argues’that police may use discretion in
clearing homicide cases according to the sociodemographic characteristics of victims.
Keywords
Clearance rate, homicide investigation, murder case, theor y of law, random forest
Corresponding author:
Alberto Aziani, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore and Transcrime, Milan, Italy, Largo Gemelli 1 - 20123
Milan (IT).
Email: alberto.aziani@unicatt.it
Article
European Journal of Criminology
2023, Vol. 20(3) 947–972
© The Author(s) 2022
Article reuse guidelines:
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DOI: 10.1177/14773708221136049
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Introduction
The resolution of homicide investigations is a measure of the overall effectiveness of a
police force. Failure to identify and apprehend those who commit homicides has a nega-
tive impact on society because it reduces the deterrent effect of the criminal justice system
and public trust in the police (Nagin, 1998; Riedel and Jarvis, 1999). Moreover, homi-
cides that remain unsolved may trigger new homicides as acts of revenge, especially if
they take place in a criminal setting (Liem et al., 2019). For these reasons, it is important
to gain insight into what factors determine homicide clearance and how discretionary
action by criminal investigators may impact the clearance of specific murder cases. In
turn, deeper understanding of the relationship between discretion and clearance would
support decision-makers in enhancing the effectiveness of homicide investigators and
making societies more equal and fair. At the same time, identifying what factors relate
to the capacity of police forces to solve homicides would help them to allocate resources
in a more efficient and effective manner.
Understanding of the factors that influence the resolution of homicide cases is still
limited in several respects. First, much of the literature on homicide clearance has
focused on the United States –more generally, on English-speaking countries –and pro-
vides partially contrasting results with respect to the relevance of multiple factors (for
example, Addington, 2007; Alderden and Lavery, 2007; Braga and Dusseault, 2018;
Campedelli, 2022; Hawk and Dabney, 2014; Hough et al., 2019; Jiao, 2007; Lee,
2005; Litwin, 2004; Mancik et al., 2018; Ousey and Lee, 2010; Pizarro et al., 2020;
Puckett and Lundman, 2003; Roberts, 2007; Roberts and Lyons, 2009, 2011). Second,
few studies have efficaciously considered and operationalized the interaction of
victims’characteristics, such as victim’s socio-economic condition, that might trigger
discretionary actions by police forces, and non-discretionary factors, such as weapon
used to commit the homicide (Petersen, 2017; Vaughn, 2020).
In this study, we investigate factors associated with the clearance of Italian homicide
cases and their interactions. Analysis of the Italian context is important for three reasons.
Given the decline in homicides in most societies and countries in the world, as observed
by LaFree et al. (2015), Italy, which has a low homicide rate –about 0.7 homicides per
100,000 inhabitants –provides a glimpse of what may occur in other countries in the
future. At the same time, Italy, like other Western societies, is experiencing a migration
inflow which exacerbates ethnic rivalries and fosters xenophobic sentiments (Amin,
2013). Finally, in Italy there operate structured organized crime groups which have a
code of silence on criminal activity and a refusal to give evidence to the police
–omertà –among their key rules of conduct (Paoli, 2003). In this regard, study of the
Italian case furnishes insights into the possible correlates between a discretionary
approach to murder investigation, homicide characteristics, and the presence of
governance-type organized crime.
In view of the above, this study contributes to the broader literature on homicide clear-
ance by (i) compensating for the relative dearth of studies of this type outside the United
States; (ii) conducting a country-based multisite study made possible by the fact that Italy
has police forces which operate across the entire country; (iii) analyzing both big metro-
politan and small provincial investigative units, while previous research mainly
948 European Journal of Criminology 20(3)
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