How Time Affects EU Decision-Making
| Author | Bernard Steunenberg,Jonathan Golub |
| Published date | 01 December 2007 |
| Date | 01 December 2007 |
| DOI | http://doi.org/10.1177/1465116507082814 |
| Subject Matter | Articles |
Forum Section
How Time Affects EU
Decision-Making
Jonathan Golub
University of Reading, UK
Bernard Steunenberg
University of Leiden, The Netherlands
555
European Union Politics
DOI: 10.1177/1465116507082814
Volume 8 (4): 555–566
Copyright© 2007
SAGE Publications
Los Angeles, London, New Delhi
and Singapore
In a recent article in this journal, Golub demonstrated that, in order to under-
stand the determinants of legislative decision-making speed in the European
Union and their theoretical implications, it is essential for analysts to fit
survival models that do not make assumptions about the shape of the
baseline hazard rate and that account for variables whose value and effect
may change over time (Golub, 2007). To improve upon earlier findings that
ignored these issues, he fit a Cox model with time-interaction terms that
allow non-proportional effects to data on the 1669 proposed directives made
between 1968 and 1998. The inclusion of these time-interaction terms was
based on the well-known tests of proportionality (Box-Steffensmeier and
Zorn, 2001). Although correct, the interpretation of the results of such a
model is less straightforward than he recognized. In this paper we explain
how to make sense of the estimates from survival models that contain time-
interaction terms, and then investigate how a more precise interpretation
affects Golub’s findings. Overall, we draw three main conclusions: the effect
that formal qualified majority voting (QMV) rules have on speeding up
decision-making is even larger and more consistent than originally claimed;
the trade-off between efficiency and legitimacy is more complicated than first
thought; and the effects of some key variables do not just wear off but
actually reverse direction once proposals survive long periods of time.
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