Identification and analysis of major risk factors causing national terrorism
| DOI | https://doi.org/10.1108/JACPR-01-2019-0402 |
| Published date | 27 June 2019 |
| Pages | 225-239 |
| Date | 27 June 2019 |
| Author | Andrey Vadimovich Novikov,Andrey Petrovich Koshkin |
| Subject Matter | Health & social care |
Identification and analysis of major risk
factors causing national terrorism
Andrey Vadimovich Novikov and Andrey Petrovich Koshkin
Abstract
Purpose –National terrorism is a comprehensive problem caused by various factors and conditions that give
rise to or are capable of giving rise to it. The paper aims to discuss this issue.
Design/methodology/approach –The purpose of this study is to identify the main risk factors contributing
to the emergence of terrorism, based on an expert survey of the academic community and law enforcement
officers who are directly involved in the security sector in the Russian regions.
Findings –The study identified 72 causes of national terrorism, which were then transformed into a
questionnaire. The findings helped identify 18 major risk factors associated with the emergence of terrorism.
Originality/value –It was concluded that the elimination of these risk factors would generally reduce the
impact of more insignificant factors. The results of the study may be useful for countries and nationalregions
exposed to a high level of terrorist activity.
Keywords Terrorism, Factors, Analysis, Security, Risk assessment, National terrorism
Paper type Research paper
Introduction
Terrorism as a specific social and political phenomenon has existed since ancient times.
Constantly changing, acquiring new forms and modernizing the old ones, it traveled a long way
throughout history and at the end of the twentieth century –the beginning of the twenty-first
century it became one of the most acute global problems, which turned out to be quite a major
problem in modern Russia as well. Over the past three decades, Russia has been facing an
extremely insecure, unstable and politicized situation, especially after 1992, i.e. after the launch
of large-scale counter-terrorism operations, more than 4,308 people died and 7,441 people
were injured as a result of terrorism. During the First Chechen War (1994–1996) and the Second
Chechen War (1999–2009), 150 and 1,029 terrorist attacks occurred, respectively (Global
Terrorism Database, 2017). That is quite comparable with the 703 attacks committed from 2010
to 2017 in the absence of large-scale counter-terrorist special operations.
One of the main reasons may be the very nature of terrorism, since such resistance tactics is
especially effective if the forces of the opponents are misbalanced. Since most of the Chechen
separatist cells and significant terrorist leaders were either eliminated or went deep underground
after long and large-scale military antiterrorist campaigns in the North Caucasus republics, the
form and resistance tactics of militants changed (Mccartan et al., 2008). Apparently, the lack of
forces and means of terrorists resulted in bets placed on increasing the number of attacks
instead of direct armed opposition to government forces which was typical during the 1990s and
early 2000s. At the same time, a sharp decline in the number of terrorist attacks, starting from
2014, can be easily explained by the departure of Russian militants to the territory of Syria and
Iraq, in order to join the largest terrorist organization –the Islamic State. Apart from that, during
this period, the simultaneous increase in pressure from counterterrorism forces and a positive
change in public opinion created unfavorable conditions for terrorist activities in the country.
Therefore,considering Russia as anexample, this study was conductedwith a focus on identifying
the main risk factorsgiving rise to national terrorism. Russia’s counterterroris m strategy is based on
Received 21 January 2019
Revised 18 April 2019
29 April 2019
Accepted 30 April 2019
Andrey Vadimovich Novikov
and Andrey Petrovich Koshkin
are both based at the
Department of Political Science
and Sociology, Plekhanov
Russian University of
Economics, Moscow,
Russian Federation.
DOI 10.1108/JACPR-01-2019-0402 VOL. 11 NO. 3 2019, pp.225-239, © Emerald Publishing Limited, ISSN 1759-6599
j
JOURNAL OF AGGRESSION, CONFLICTAND PEACE RESEARCH
j
PAGE225
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