Identifying future trends in information technology
| DOI | https://doi.org/10.1108/02635579910253742 |
| Pages | 247-250 |
| Date | 01 September 1999 |
| Published date | 01 September 1999 |
| Author | Michael J. Savoie,Mahesh S. Raisinghani |
| Subject Matter | Economics,Information & knowledge management,Management science & operations |
Identifying future trends in information technology
Michael J. Savoie
Graduate School of Management, University of Dallas, Irving, Texas, USA
Mahesh S. Raisinghani
Graduate School of Management, University of Dallas, Irving, Texas, USA
``There is no reason why anyone would want a
computer in their home.'' Ken Olson, Presi-
dent, Chairman and founder of Digital
Equipment Corp., 1977.
Trends in technology ± what we call ``waves''±
have enormous impact on the way we do
business. Those companies or individuals
who are capable of identifying a wave and
``getting on top'' can ride it to tremendous
competitive advantage (and make a lot of
money, too). Those who fail to catch a ``wave''
find themselves playing catch-up, often fall-
ing further behind, resulting in takeovers
and, in some cases, bankruptcy.
Identifying technological waves
So what is a technology wave? A good
example is the computer industry. If we look
at the industry from 1950 to the present, we
might say that the wave is a reduction in size
of the computer (UNIVAC to laptops) or an
increase in memory, speed and storage
capacity. However, these are manifestations
of the wave, not the wave itself.
Witness what has happened just in the last
five years. Those who identified the wave as
we did above spent their R&D budgets
developing smaller, lighter, more powerful
systems ± PIMs (the Apple Newton), palmtops
and sub-notebooks ± none of which have
caught on. However, one company recog-
nized that this was not the actual wave, but a
manifestation. They recognized that the
technological wave was one of data access.
What each succeeding generation of compu-
ters was allowing was faster access to data,
better processing of these data into informa-
tion, and larger storage capabilities for the
information. Taken to its logical conclusion,
what the wave wanted was a tool to allow
anyone access to all the data in the world ±
hence the Internet browser. The company,
Netscape, has captured roughly 80 per cent of
this fastest growing segment of the current
information technology wave ± making mil-
lionaires out of the people who correctly read
and interpreted this wave.
A current example
Another example of identifying the techno-
logical wave is electronic commerce. Elec-
tronic commerce, or e-commerce, refers to a
broad range of business activities. From
automated voice systems that take orders
over the phone, to electronic data inter-
change and Web-based businesses, electronic
commerce is seen by many as the ``wave'' of
the future. If we refer back to the concept of
technological waves discussed above, we
need to determine the ``wave'' that is cur-
rently manifesting itself in electronic com-
merce.
Fundamentally, the wave deals with the
exchange of goods and services. Tradition-
ally, these were done on a barter system at a
designated point. Today, these events still
take place in the form of swap meets and flea
markets. But as the wave developed, more
structure was added to the exchange of goods
and services. First and foremost was the
development of monetary units for exchange.
These units, or currency, allowed buyers to
purchase goods and services without having
to offer equivalent goods and services in
return. Instead, the seller set a monetary
price for the product and the buyer decided
whether or not the product was worth the
price. Much of the worth centered on need,
with the occasional purchase of a want, or
luxury, item.
After World War II, America experienced a
decade of significant prosperity. Income, in
the form of monetary units was up, and
products and services were created to allow
the buyer to purchase a myriad new pro-
ducts. Many of these products were not
``needs'' but ``wants''. As the number of
suppliers increased, the need to differentiate
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[ 247 ]
Industrial Management &
Data Systems
99/6 [1999] 247±250
#MCB University Press
[ISSN 0263-5577]
Keywords
Mass customization, Technology,
Information technology,
Globalization, Development,
Computer industry
Abstract
Few information technology trends
have received more attention from
the industry than electronic (e-)
commerce ± and considering the
industry's predisposition to hyper-
bole, that is saying a lot. This
paper discusses the diffusion of e-
commerce in three wave-migration
phases from current computer
communications. From an ontolo-
gical perspective at the meta
level, this paper explains why e-
commerce may have a greater
impact on exchanging information
and optimizing existing business
processes than on generating
funds flow. In evaluating the nat-
ure of e-commerce applications, it
is proposed that e-commerce will
replace the traditional inventory-
based model with an information-
based model and the basis of
competition will shift from compa-
nies with strong distribution sys-
tems to those with strong
information systems. This might
help explain the predictions of
triple-digit e-commerce market
growth and stock valuations of
Internet companies that defy fun-
damentals.
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