Identifying potential offenders on the basis of police records: development and validation of the ProKid risk assessment tool
| DOI | https://doi.org/10.1108/JCRPP-01-2017-0008 |
| Pages | 249-260 |
| Published date | 04 December 2017 |
| Date | 04 December 2017 |
| Author | Jacqueline Wientjes,Marc Delsing,Antonius Cillessen,Jan Janssens,Ron Scholte |
| Subject Matter | Health & social care,Criminology & forensic psychology |
Identifying potential offenders on the
basis of police records: development
and validation of the ProKid risk
assessment tool
Jacqueline Wientjes, Marc Delsing, Antonius Cillessen, Jan Janssens and Ron Scholte
Abstract
Purpose –The purpose of this paper is to describe the development and validation of the ProKid risk
assessment tool, which was designed to enable Dutch police officers to identify youths with elevated risk of
committing violent and/or property crimes.
Design/methodology/approach –The ProKid algorithms were based on the results of logistic
regression analyses of police data from a sample o f 31,769 adolescents in th e former police regions
“Amsterdam-Amstella nd”and “Gelderland-Midden”. For the validation, logistic regression analyses were
performed on police data of youths in the police regi on “Amsterdam-Amstelland”who had been in contact
with the police in 2011 (n ¼39,977). Furthermore, receiver operating characteristic analyses were
performed to assess the i nstrument’s accuracy.
Findings –Results indicated that higher ProKid risk categories were associated with greater odds of being
registered as a suspect of either a violent or property offence. The instrument was found to have good
predictive accuracy. Area under the curve values ranged from 0.83 to 0.84 for violent offences and from 0.82
to 0.83 for property offences.
Practical implications –The current study demonstrates that ProKid is a valid and accurate tool to be
used by police officers to identify youths with elevated risk of future violent and property offending.
The automated assessment procedure enables a quick screening of large numbers of both non-offenders
and offenders. This study confirms the value of official police records for assessing the risk of future
offending for preventive purposes.
Originality/value –The present study demonstrates the validity of a risk assessment tool based on Dutch
police records for both non-offenders and offenders.
Keywords Treatment, Policing, Offenders, Risk, Assessment, Crime prevention andreduction
Paper type Research paper
Juvenile delinquency is a serious societal problem with, in the first place, negative emotional,
physical, and economic consequences for the victims involved. In particular violent and property
crimes are known to have a large, often traumatising, impact on victims (e.g. McGue and
Iacono, 2005; Piquero et al., 2007). In addition to the negative consequences for the individual
victims, juvenile delinquency is associated with high societal costs. Estimates of these costs in
the Netherlands range from €17.2 to €31.5 billion per year (Bakker, 2012). Further, criminal
behaviour is associated with negative consequences for the juvenile delinquent perpetrators,
as they often experience problems in the areas of health, education, employment, and
relationships (Borduin, 1994; Kazdin, 1987). These problems tend to be most severe for the
relatively small group of juveniles whose criminal behaviour started at a young age, gradually
became more serious, and persisted into adulthood (Loeber et al., 2009).
Research has shown that early interventions can prevent youths from developing a criminal
career (Dekovic
´et al., 2011; Farrington and Coid, 2003; Weisburd et al., 2016). Early intervention
is important because once behaviour patterns have been established over some time, they are
Received 31 January 2017
Revised 21 February 2017
Accepted 22 February 2017
ProKid was developed by the
Dutch police in cooperation with
Praktikon and Radboud University
Nijmegen. The authors have no
commercial interest in the
instrument.
Jacqueline Wientjes is based at
Dutch Police, Arnhem,
The Netherlands.
Marc Delsing is based at
Praktikon, Nijmegen,
The Netherlands.
Antonius Cillessen is a
Professor of Developmental
Psychology at the Behavioural
Science Institute, Radboud
Universiteit, Nijmegen,
The Netherlands.
Jan Janssens is based at
Radboud Universiteit,
Nijmegen, The Netherlands.
Ron Scholte is based at
Praktikon, Nijmegen,
The Netherlands.
DOI 10.1108/JCRPP-01-2017-0008 VOL. 3 NO. 4 2017, pp.249-260, © Emerald Publishing Limited, ISSN 2056-3841
j
JOURNAL OF CRIMINOLOGICAL RESEARCH, POLICY AND PRACTICE
j
PAGE249
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