“If you compress the spring, it will snap back hard”: The Ukrainian crisis and the balance of threat theory
| Author | Ingo Henneberg,Andreas M Bock,Friedrich Plank |
| Published date | 01 March 2015 |
| Date | 01 March 2015 |
| DOI | http://doi.org/10.1177/0020702014562593 |
| Subject Matter | Policy Brief |
International Journal
2015, Vol. 70(1) 101–109
!The Author(s) 2014
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DOI: 10.1177/0020702014562593
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Policy Brief
‘‘If you compress the
spring, it will snap back
hard’’: The Ukrainian
crisis and the balance
of threat theory
Andreas M Bock
Akkon University of Applied Science Berlin, Berlin, Germany
Ingo Henneberg
Department of Political Science, University of Freiburg, Freiburg,
Germany
Friedrich Plank
Department of Political Science, University of Mainz, Mainz,
Germany
Abstract
The narrative of an aggressive and neo-imperialist Russia that has dominated analyses of
the 2014 Ukrainian crisis lacks theoretical rigour. We argue that a sustainable trans-
formation of the Ukrainian crisis requires an accurate analysis of the context of the
conflict, which should include an understanding of Moscow’s perception of the threats
to its interests. This policy brief develops a theoretical understanding of the Ukrainian
crisis through the lens of Stephen M. Walt’s balance of threat theory. We conclude that
a realist analysis will help to explain Russian actions.
Keywords
Ukraine, Ukrainian crisis, Crimean crisis, balancing behaviour, balance of threat, threat
perception
On Tuesday, 18 March 2014, Russian president Vladimir Putin announced the
annexation of Crimea. Putin argued that his actions would reverse a historic injust-
ice that had been inflicted on the Soviet Union 60 years before. The Russian move
Corresponding author:
Andreas M Bock, Akkon University of Applied Science Berlin, Akkon-Hochschule fu¨r
Humanwissenschaften, Am Ko
¨llnischen Park 1, 10179 Berlin, Germany.
Email: andreas.bock@akkon-hochschule.de
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