International arms trade and transfers: Rising producers, advanced technology, and adapting regulations
| Published date | 01 March 2023 |
| DOI | http://doi.org/10.1177/00207020231179054 |
| Author | Layton J. Mandle,Frederic S. Pearson |
| Date | 01 March 2023 |
| Subject Matter | Scholarly Essays |
International arms trade and
transfers: Rising producers,
advanced technology, and
adapting regulations
Layton J. Mandle and
Frederic S. Pearson
Wayne State University, Detroit, MI, USA
Abstract
The end of the Cold War era has ushered in a century in which great military powers
like the US, China, and Russia continue to dominate the arms trade, yet minor powers
are also investing heavily in arms manufacturing and technologies and profiting from
lucrative arms transfers. Changes in the arms trade have fostered cooperative inter-
national regulatory practices and agreements, but recent conflicts in Yemen, Syria,
Libya, Nagorno-Karabakh, and Ukraine highlight the need for strong end-use monitor-
ing, post-shipment verification, and international accountability for dubious trade
deals. This study analyzes changes in top arms producers, new complexities in
arms regulation due to advancing technologies and artificial intelligence, arms-control
policies of international organizations and top arms producers, and the risks of poor
regulation.
Keywords
arms trade, arms control, arms regulation, military technology, militarized artificial
intelligence, end-use, arms transfers, arms-trade treaty, co-production
Corresponding author:
Layton J. Mandle, Department of Political Science, WayneState University, 42 W. WarrenAvenue, Detroit,
MI 48202-3489, USA.
Email: laytonmandle@wayne.edu
Scholarly Essay
International Journal
2023, Vol. 78(1-2) 60–86
© The Author(s) 2023
Article reuse guidelines:
sagepub.com/journals-permissions
DOI: 10.1177/00207020231179054
journals.sagepub.com/home/ijx
Introduction: Arms trade in the twenty-first century
During the late twentieth century, the international arms trade was dominated by the
two reigning superpowers of the post-war bi-polar system, the US and Soviet
Union, which together accounted for 70 percent of the world’s arms transfers.
1
Though the US and Russia remain the top arms producers in the world today, and
though some reports estimate that China has overtaken Russia through unreported
sales, many regional powers and advanced industrialized states are becoming
leaders in arms technology, production, and trade, thus changing the nature of the
arms trade. Countries such as Canada and Sweden, long viewed as international peace-
makers, have found themselves consistently ranked within the top fifteen arms sellers
in the past decade.
2
Regional powers that historically relied on US or Russian military
aid, such as Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, have found an ever-growing array of sellers.
Rising regional powers with complex security motivations, such as Israel and South
Korea, have invested heavily in advanced military technology and artificial intelli-
gence (AI). States such as Iran, restricted from access to advanced technologies by
Western sanctions, have begun producing their own components and become regional
sellers in combat drones.
3
Non-state military groups have access to high-tech military
armaments through gray and black markets, fueling the many civil wars that have
erupted in the post-Cold War era.
4
The growth of private arms manufacturers and traders, the lucrative benefits of
exporting arms, the growing availability of conventional weapons systems, the
spread of information through cooperative or joint development, and improved
dual-use and advanced military technologies have all created a dilemma for those con-
cerned with international security and arms control. Thus, the focus of this analysis is
in understanding contemporary trends in the international trade of arms, including
shifting relationships between top exporters and importers, the rise of minor powers
as arms-exporting leaders, international and state-level attempts at regulation, advanc-
ing technologies and the dual-use nature of military technology, and the risk of fueling
conflict by prioritizing trade over-regulation enforcement.
Shifting arms supply patterns
The international trade and transfer of conventional arms, though retaining many car-
ryover patterns, has evolved significantly in the past two decades. In 2002, with declin-
ing international wars, global arms imports sat at the lowest levels since 1963, totaling
1. Frederic Pearson, The Global Spread of Arms (Boulder: Westview Press, 1994).
2. Stockholm Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), “Arms industry database,”2023, https://www.sipri.org/
databases/armsindustry (accessed 9 May 2023).
3. Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), “Armed drones in Iran,”2023, https://drones.rusi.org/
countries/iran/#_ftn2 (accessed 9 May 2023).
4. Marie Olson Lounsbery and Frederic Pearson, Civil Wars: Internal Struggles, Global Consequences
(Toronto: University of Toronto Press, 2009).
Mandle and Pearson 61
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