International crisis in the midst of civil war
| Date | 01 June 2022 |
| Published date | 01 June 2022 |
| DOI | 10.1177/00471178211052822 |
| Subject Matter | Articles |
https://doi.org/10.1177/00471178211052822
International Relations
2022, Vol. 36(2) 307 –326
© The Author(s) 2021
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DOI: 10.1177/00471178211052822
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International crisis in the
midst of civil war
Meirav Mishali-Ram
Bar Ilan University
Abstract
This article examines the nexus between international crises and civil wars. Based on the premise
that not all simultaneous civil and international conflicts are related, the study aims to explore
the circumstances in which civil wars affect violent escalation in international crises. The study
identifies ‘composite’ crises – where the civil war is the core issue of the international dispute
– as a unique subset of international crises. These crises are distinguished from ‘unrelated-civil
war’ situations, in which the issues in the internal and international conflicts are separate. Using
data from the ICB, COW, and UCDP/PRIO datasets, the article tests a dual-conflict argument,
positing that interconnected issues and interactions between actors in composite situations
inhibit moderate crisis management and aggravate interstate behavior. The findings show that
while civil war in composite situations has a negative impact on crisis escalation, unrelated-civil
war has an inverse impact on interstate relations in crisis.
Keywords
civil war, composite crises, crisis escalation, dual conflict, international crisis
Introduction
Domestic and international disputes are often intertwined in contemporary world politics.
A quick look at recent international confrontations related to civil wars, such as those
waged in Syria, Yemen and Libya, reveals that the link between the two types of conflict
creates complex situations in which the underlying issues in the civil war and the interna-
tional conflict intersect. Such complex conflictual situations involve numerous state and
non-state actors (NSAs), including internal and transnational rebel organizations, and
neighboring and distant states. Nonetheless, research on the escalation of international
conflict has yet to fully integrate the two sources of conflict, and still classically focuses
on state-centric issues, including interstate power gap, regime type, and territoriality. To
Corresponding author:
Meirav Mishali-Ram, Department of Political Studies, Bar Ilan University, Ramat Gan, 52900, Israel.
Email: meirav.mishali@biu.ac.il
1052822IRE0010.1177/00471178211052822International RelationsMishali-Ram
research-article2021
Article
308 International Relations 36(2)
be sure, scholars have addressed the effects of internal strife on the likelihood of interna-
tional conflict1 but the implications of the interaction between the two types of conflict for
specific manifestations of interstate behavior have not been sufficiently explored.
This study aims to advance a more comprehensive analysis of the intersection between
internal and international conflict. The connection between the two realms of conflict is
not straightforward, as the existence of a civil war in one (or more) of the crisis states
does not necessarily indicate a connection between the core issues underlying the inter-
nal and international confrontations, nor an interplay between the actors involved in the
two conflict arenas. For example, Serbia intervened in the Bosnia and Herzegovina civil
war in favor of the Bosnian separatists, and the ensuing interstate confrontation escalated
into a full-scale war directly related to the separatist struggle. Conversely, Israeli air
strikes in Syria during the Syrian civil war stemmed from its interests in the face of ongo-
ing Iranian and Hezbollah consolidation efforts in Syria, and were not directly linked to
the internal struggles waged by a variety of rebel groups against the Syrian regime.
In order to understand the circumstances under which civil wars affect violent interac-
tions in international crises, the study distinguishes between composite crises, in which
the ongoing civil war is the core issue of the international dispute, unrelated-civil war
crises, in which the issues in the internal war are detached from the international dispute,
and non-civil war crises, in which there is no civil war in any of the crisis states during
the international confrontation. The article then tests a dual-conflict argument, stressing
that interconnected issues and interactions between actors in composite situations aggra-
vate state responses and inhibit the use of peaceful crisis management techniques,
thereby escalating interstate tensions, as shown in the Georgia-Russia crisis in Abkhazia
(1992–1993). Abkhazians, a distinctive ethnic group within Georgia, live mainly in the
autonomous republics of Abkhazia and Adzarya, where Georgia’s largest Black Sea har-
bors are located. After the disintegration of the Soviet Union and the emergence of
Georgia as an independent state, Russia actively supported the Abkhazian rebels, view-
ing their secessionist struggle as an opportunity to advance its interest in maintaining a
strategic presence along Georgia’s Black Sea coast and regaining access to Black Sea
resorts. In this context, Georgia and Russia were engaged in a violent crisis during
Georgia’s prolonged civil war against the Abkhazian separatist movement.
The study examines escalation dynamics in terms of interstate violence during the
crisis period and renewed tensions in the post-crisis period. The empirical results show
that civil war in composite situations greatly increases violent dynamics between states
during the crisis, while unrelated-civil war actually reduces interstate violence. Civil war
in composite circumstances also increases the likelihood of re-escalation of interstate
tension in the post-crisis period. These effects remain robust even when controlling for
other factors that may reasonably influence escalation of interstate disputes.
The first section of the article discusses the current literature on interactions between
internal and international conflict, underlining the need to address the effects of civil war
on interstate dynamics. The next section introduces composite crises and the dual-con-
flict mechanism that operates in them. This part also discusses the rationale behind the
research hypotheses, which rests on the characteristics of crisis management in compos-
ite situations and their association with increased escalation dynamics, during and after
the crisis. This is followed by a description of the research design, including data,
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