Introducing a new dataset on leadership change in rebel groups, 1946–2010
| DOI | 10.1177/0022343318802979 |
| Published date | 01 March 2019 |
| Author | Lesley G Terris,Carmela Lutmar |
| Date | 01 March 2019 |
| Subject Matter | Special Data Feature |
Special Data Feature
Introducing a new dataset on leadership
change in rebel groups, 1946–2010
Carmela Lutmar
School of Political Science, Division of International Relations, University of Haifa
Lesley G Terris
Lauder of School of Government, Diplomacy and Strategy, IDC Herzliya
Abstract
Leaders and leadership changes are found to influence states’ foreign policy decisions, in particular with respect to war
and peace between states. Although this issue is also addressed in the qualitative literature on intrastate wars, the
influence of leadership turnovers in civil war has received limited systematic attention. One reason for this is the
scarcity of quantitative data on rebel group leaderships. To fill this gap, we present a comprehensive dataset on
leadership changes in rebel groups, 1946–2010, organized by rebel-month. The effects of leadership changes among
parties engaged in civil war are argued to be more complex than those found in interstate disputes. In this article we
present our theoretical argument followed by presentation of the variables in the dataset and descriptive statistics. To
demonstrate the potential research value of the dataset we examine the impact of leader shifts on civil war settlement
in Africa. We conclude with avenues for future research which might benefit from this dataset.
Keywords
civil war settlement, civil wars, leader change triggers, leadership change, rebel goals
Introduction
Civil wars are distinct from interstatewars, not only in the
methods of warfare employed, but also in the issues in
dispute and the types of actors involved. Thus, the emer-
genceof civil wars as the predominanttype of conflict in the
21st century has prompted scholars to revisit many of the
questions treated in the interstate conflict literature. One
such questionconcerns the impactof leadership changeson
war and peace policy decisions. In interstate disputes, the
coming to power ofnew leaders is suggested under certain
conditions to render conflicts more conducive to negoti-
ated settlements(Bercovitch& Lutmar, 2010; McGillivray
& Smith, 2008; Quiroz Flores, 2012). Whereas the influ-
ence of leadershipturnovers among partiesinvolved in civil
war has been addressedextensively in descriptivecase stud-
ies (e.g.Golan, 2014; Stedman,1991) we do not see similar
treatment in thequantitative literature on civilwar.
1
Akey
reason for this is the scarcity of systematic data on the
leaders of non-state actors. To fill this gap, we present a
new dataset on rebel group leader changes, 1946–2010.
Focusing on the subnational actors involved in intrastate
conflict, the dataset provides information on rebel groups,
leadership shifts, and factors associated with leader shifts
over a period of six decades.
To demonstrate a potential use of the dataset, we
discuss the impact of leader change – on either the gov-
ernment or rebel side – on the likelihood of civil war
settlement. We argue that the relationship between
leader shifts and conflict settlement is more complex
within the context of intrastate disputes than it is in
interstate disputes due to the characteristics of rebel
group and civil conflict, such as multiplicity of groups
with competing interests, legitimacy issues, and
Corresponding author:
lterris@idc.ac.il
1
An exception is Tiernay’s (2015) pioneering work.
Journal of Peace Research
2019, Vol. 56(2) 306–315
ªThe Author(s) 2018
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DOI: 10.1177/0022343318802979
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