Is China a Deviant Case? A Societal-Level Test of the Modernization Theory
| Author | Yingnan Joseph Zhou |
| Published date | 01 November 2021 |
| DOI | 10.1177/0032321720924807 |
| Date | 01 November 2021 |
| Subject Matter | Articles |
https://doi.org/10.1177/0032321720924807
Political Studies
2021, Vol. 69(4) 834 –857
© The Author(s) 2020
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DOI: 10.1177/0032321720924807
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Is China a Deviant Case? A
Societal-Level Test of the
Modernization Theory
Yingnan Joseph Zhou
Abstract
Some view China as a deviant case to the modernization theory. This view is based on two
observations. First, the Chinese middle class shows no distinct democratic orientations. Second,
one’s trust in the Chinese Communist Party regime rises as he or she gets financially better off.
However, the modernization theory by its nature is a societal-level theory, and it has not yet been
tested at the societal level in China. This study undertakes this task by examining the relationship
between a province’s economic development and its political trust in the central government and
its tolerance of public criticism of the government. The two provincial-level variables are estimated
by Multilevel Regression and Poststratification using data from China Survey 2008, CGSS 2010,
2012, 2013, and the 2010 National Census. The results, which are corroborated by county-level
Multilevel Regression and Poststratification, strongly support the modernization theory.
Keywords
China, democratization, modernization theory, MRP
Accepted: 14 April 2020
Introduction
The modernization theory in its various forms holds that economic development causes
democratization (Burkhart and Lewis-Beck, 1994; Fukuyama, 1992; Geddes, 2011;
Inglehart and Welzel, 2005), sustains an existing democracy (Przeworski and Limongi,
1997; Rustow, 1970; Teorell, 2010), or does both (Boix and Stokes, 2003; Lipset, 1959).
Whatever the truth, few dispute the positive correlation between economic development
and democracy, one of the most long-standing and established findings in the research of
political science. The correlation would have given political scientists more security
when their scientist status is being questioned. If not for China. Boasting of its
four-decade breakneck economic development, China is poised to overtake the US as the
world’s largest economy. And it will probably do so as an authoritarian country.
The University of Texas at El Paso, El Paso, TX, USA
Corresponding author:
Yingnan Joseph Zhou, The University of Texas at El Paso, Benedict Hall 111, 500 W. University, El Paso, TX
79968, USA.
Email: yzhou5@utep.edu
924807PSX0010.1177/0032321720924807Political StudiesZhou
research-article2020
Article
Zhou 835
Of course, authoritarianism alone does not make China a deviant case. The moderniza-
tion theory may still be at work if China’s economic development moves the needle of
balance toward democracy, however slowly and quietly. Yet, this is hardly the picture the
literature has painted for us, in which the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) regime enjoys
strong and wide popular support, so much so that some scholars suspect systemic lying
by Chinese survey respondents (Cheng, 2013; Newton, 2001), a suspicion with mixed
evidence (Jiang and Yang, 2016; Lei and Lu, 2017; Li, 2016; Shi, 2014; Tang, 2016; Tsai,
2007; Wang, 2005; Zhou et al., 2020). The majority of Chinese people express support for
democracy, only that they define democracy in creative ways and believe China is one
already (Lu, 2012; Lu and Shi, 2014; Zhou, 2018). The Chinese middle class, loaded with
the high expectation to democratize China (Huntington, 1991; Lipset, 1959; Moore,
1966; Zak and Feng, 2003), remains cozy with the state and appears uninterested in politi-
cal reform (Chen, 2013; Chen and Lu, 2011; Nathan, 2015; Tang, 2011). While “the more
well-to-do a nation, the greater the chances that it will sustain democracy” (Lipset, 1959:
75), at least in China, it appears that the more well-to-do a person, the greater the chances
that he or she will support the authoritarian regime (Chen et al., 1997a, 1997b; Tang,
2016; Wang, 2005; Zhai, 2016).
So the literature at large suggests that China is a deviant, if not disconfirmatory, case
to the modernization theory. But in this study, I present a different view through a differ-
ent approach. I argue that the most basic claim of the modernization theory—economic
development is positively related to democracy—has yet been appropriately tested in
China. An appropriate test means treating economic development as the independent
variable and democracy, or propensity to democracy, as the dependent variable. Because
both exist only within societies rather than within individuals, an appropriate test also
means a test at the societal level.
This study ventures upon a societal-level test of the modernization theory in China. It
examines whether the public opinion in economically developed provinces tend to lean
away from authoritarianism and toward democracy. The two opinions of interest are trust
in the authoritarian government and tolerance of public criticism of government without its
interference. The former opinion taps into a province’s aversion to authoritarianism and
the latter a province’s espousal of free speech, a fundamental democratic value. A major
obstacle to this undertaking is measuring provincial public opinion. Simple aggregation of
individual-level survey data is prone to biased and unreliable estimates due to small num-
bers of observations—sometimes none—in each province. To remove this obstacle, I
employ Multilevel Regression and Poststratification (MRP), a popular method often used
by scholars of American politics to estimate state-level public opinions (Kastellec et al.,
2016; Park et al., 2004). My statistical analysis linking economic development to provin-
cial opinions provides substantial support for the modernization theory, and the provincial-
level results are robust to moving the analysis to the county level. As the first application
of MRP to both Chinese provinces and counties, my MRP procedures can be adapted for
other opinions and at different administrative levels. Theoretically, my study presents the
yet strongest evidence from China in favor of the modernization theory.
The Shortcomings of the Existing Evidence
This section questions the evidence often cited to declare China a deviant case. The first
piece of evidence is the favorable attitudes of Chinese people toward the authoritarian
regime in the form of political support, trust, and perceived government responsiveness
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