Is Nagorno-Karabakh no longer a frozen conflict zone after the 2020 war?
| Published date | 01 March 2023 |
| DOI | http://doi.org/10.1177/00207020231179048 |
| Author | Selim Kurt,Göktürk Tüysüzoğlu |
| Date | 01 March 2023 |
| Subject Matter | Scholarly Essays |
Is Nagorno-Karabakh no
longer a frozen conflict zone
after the 2020 war?
Selim Kurt and Göktürk Tüysüzog
̆lu
Giresun University, Giresun, Turkey
Abstract
The term “frozen conflict,”which is used to describe identity-based conflicts in for-
mer Soviet republics, characterizes a situation whereby neither war nor peace exists
between the conflicting parties. The most important of these conflict areas is
Nagorno-Karabakh, located in the South Caucasus. As the conflict in the 1990s
could not be resolved through negotiations, war broke out again in September
2020. Under the ceasefire protocol signed in November 2020 following the war,
Azerbaijan has largely succeeded in liberating its occupied territories around
Nagorno-Karabakh. As it is claimed that the occupied territories of Azerbaijan
have been completely liberated, this situation raises the question of whether the
problem is no longer a frozen conflict. However, when the protocol is considered
in relation to the concept’sdefinition, we see that the problem remains a frozen
conflict.
Keywords
frozen conflict, identity, Nagorno-Karabakh, Russia, November 2020 Protocol
The Nagorno-Karabakh issue is one of the identity-based conflicts that emerged amid
former Soviet states. Arising from the sociocultural demands of the Armenian minority
in the Nagorno-Karabakh region of Azerbaijan, the issue turned into an armed conflict
Corresponding author:
Selim Kurt, Giresun Üniversitesi, Güre Mevkii, İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Uluslararasıİlişkiler
Bölümü, 2. kat, Giresun/Türkiye, Giresun 28200, Turkey.
Email: selim.kurt@giresun.edu.tr
Scholarly Essay
International Journal
2023, Vol. 78(1-2) 41–59
© The Author(s) 2023
Article reuse guidelines:
sagepub.com/journals-permissions
DOI: 10.1177/00207020231179048
journals.sagepub.com/home/ijx
with Armenia’s involvement. Despite multiple negotiations, a permanent solution
could not be reached. This deadlock caused the war to flare up again between
September and November 2020. The protocol presented during the subsequent cease-
fire in November 2020 gave the impression that a solution had been reached, especially
on the Azerbaijani side. The main starting point of this study comes from this claim.
This study aims to examine the credibility of this claim using the definition of
frozen conflict.
Many experts have addressed the concept of frozen conflict in the literature. As
specified by Valery Perry, a frozen conflict refers to a situation in which violence
ceases, but the underlying arguments cannot be resolved.
1
According to Karin
Aggestam and Annika Björkdahl, frozen conflict is when a war stops, but neither
side has reached a final victory, and so the conflict is extended under “peacetime”con-
ditions within the political arena.
2
Dov Lynch states that the underlying problems are
not actually “frozen”; the issue continues to exist and develop, and may even become
quite different from when it arose.
3
Elena Pokalova draws attention to the fact that sep-
aratist regions called “de facto”states actually behave like states and do not resemble
non-state actors.
4
These definitions point to different aspects of the concept of frozen conflict;
however, they converge on similar points. Using Michal Smetana and Jan
Ludvik’sclassification of the four fundamental characteristics of frozen conflict
zones,
5
this article analyzes whether the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict has stopped
being a frozen conflict. This study uses content analysis and consists of three
sections. In the first section, the concept of frozen conflict is explained from a theo-
retical perspective. The second section addresses the history and regional implica-
tions of the Nagorno-Karabakh problem. The third part examines whether the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is no longer a frozen conflict under the November
2020 Protocol.
The concept of a frozen conflict zone
The concept of a “frozen conflict zone”came to the international political agenda in the
early 1990s. In particular, political problems and armed conflicts that emerged during
the dissolution of the Soviet Union (USSR) played an essential role in advancing this
concept. In a “frozen conflict,”although high-intensity armed conflicts have ended in a
1. Valery Perry, “At cross purposes? Democratization and peace implementation strategies in Bosnia and
Herzegovina’s frozen conflict,”Human Rights Review 10, no. 1 (2009): 35–54.
2. Karin Aggestam and Annika Björkdahl, “Just peace postponed: Unending peace processes and frozen
conflicts,”JAD-PbP Working Paper Series, no. 10 (2011): 6–22.
3. Dov Lynch, “New thinking about frozen conflicts,”Helsinki Monitor 16, no. 3 (2005): 192–195.
4. Elena Pokalova, “Conflict resolution in frozen conflicts: Timing in Nagorno-Karabakh,”Journal of
Balkan and Near Eastern Studies 17, no. 1 (2015): 68–85.
5. Michal Smetana and Jan Ludvik, “Between war and peace: A dynamic reconceptualization of ‘frozen
conflicts,’” Asia-Europe Journal, no. 17 (2019): 1–14.
42 International Journal 78(1-2)
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