IV: Political Process: Public Opinion, Attitudes, Parties, Forces, Groups and Elections/Vie Politique: Opinion Publique, Attitudes, Partis, Forces, Groupes et Élections
| DOI | 10.1177/002083451606600604 |
| Date | 01 December 2016 |
| Published date | 01 December 2016 |
| Subject Matter | Abstracts |
720
IV
POLITICAL PROCESS : PUBLIC OPINION,
ATTITUDES, PARTIES, FORCES, GROUPS AND ELECTIONS
VIE POLITIQUE : OPINION PUBLIQUE,
ATTITUDES, PARTIS, FORCES, GROUPES ET ÉLECTIONS
66.6827 ADIDA, Claire L., et al. — Who’s asking? Interviewer
coethnicity effects in African survey data. Comparative
Political Studies 49(12), Oct. 2016 : 1630-1660.
Face-to-face interviews constitute a social interaction between interview-
er and respondent, and in the African context, social interactions are
strongly shaped by ethnicity. Yet research using African survey data
typically fails to account for the effect of shared ethnicity on survey
responses. We find that respondents give systematically different a n-
swers to co-ethnic and non-co-ethnic interviewers across surveys in 14
African countries, but with significant variation in the degree of bias
across question types and types of noncoethnic dyads, with the largest
effects occurring where both the respondent and interviewer are mem-
bers of ethnic groups with a history of political competition and conflict,
and where the respondent or interviewer shares an ethnicity with the
head of state. [R, abr.]
66.6828 AHMAD, Aijaz — India: liberal democracy and the extreme
right. Socialist Register 2016 : 170-192.
The Indian polity of today seems to be undergoing a historically unprec-
edented process: the irresistible rise of the extreme right to dominance in
vast areas of culture, society, ideology, and economy, albeit with com-
mitment to observe virtually all the institutional norms of liberal democra-
cy. This will to a “long march through the institutions” and to capturing
total state power not through frontal seizure, but through patie ntly engi-
neered and legally legitimate takeover of those institutions by its person-
nel from within, raises a very different kind of question: is there really an
irreconcilable contradiction, an unbridgeable gap, between institutions of
liberal democracy and takeover of the state by the extreme right? In
other words, can the extreme right rule and pursue its own agenda
through liberal institutions? [See Abstr. 66.6912]
66.6829 Al-ANANI, Khalil — Political Salafism in Egypt. Orient
2016(2) : 24-30.
The emergence of the political Salafism in Egypt after the 25 January
uprising took many observers by surprise. Salafis, whom once deemed
politics as heresy and religiously prohibited, became a key political force
after the uprising. The Al-Nour Party, the main Salafi party, played a key
role in Egypt's politics with undeniable political propensity. However, after
the removal of the Muslim Brotherhood from power in 2013, Al-Nour
Party's image and credibility was significantly affected. The party sup-
ported the coup against President M. Morsi which undermined its clout
and appeal among Islamists. After the coup, Salafis came a full circle
and began to rethink politics as it is non longer a blessing but a curse.
[R, abr.] [See Abstr. 66.7488]
66.6830 ALBERTAZZI, Daniele — Going, going, … not quite gone
yet? "Bossi’s Lega [Nord, Italy]" and the survival of the
mass party. Contemporary Italian Politics 8(2), Aug. 2016 :
115-130.
Scholarly literature has [focused] the declining number of party members
in post-industrial societies, arguing that parties now lack the incentives to
maintain a large membership. However, some right-wing populist parties
rely on activism by being rooted at the local level and by fostering the
creation of closed communities of ideologically committed members. In
short, they have adopted the organizational model of the mass party. By
focusing on one of these organizations, the Italian Lega Nord (Northern
League, LN) under the leadership of U. Bossi (1991-2012), and by
drawing on individual and group interviews with party mem bers, this
article explores the latter’s experiences of activism. It highlights the
reasons why activists stayed in the LN and what they gained and pro-
vides evidence of the strength of their commitment to their party. [R, abr.]
66.6831 ALEXANDRE-COLLIER, Agnès — The "Open Garden of
Politics": the impact of open primaries for candidate se-
lection in the British Conservative Party. British Journal of
Politics and International Relations 18(3), Aug. 2016 : 706-
723.
Since 2003, hundreds of open primaries for the selection of parliamen-
tary candidates have been held by the British Conservative Party as a
means of democratizing party organization and enhancing representa-
tiveness. In the run-up to the 2015 general election, only 26 primaries
could be identified. This article applies the analytical framework provided
by Hazan and Rahat to demonstrate that the relative failure of the exper-
iment in terms of intra-party competition, participation, representation
and responsiveness is counterbalanced by the benefits brought by this
procedure, both as a tool of party branding at the national level and as a
strategy for raising the profiles of candidates at the local level. [R, abr.]
66.6832 ALLEN, Peter — Achieving sex equality in [UK] executive
appointments. Party Politics 22(5), Sept. 2016 : 609-619.
In a political context, the "glass ceiling" is shorthand for the barriers faced
by women politicians, resulting in them being less likely to reach execu-
tive roles at the same rate as the ir male colleagues. This article outlines
a case where there was sex equality in executive appointments: a cohort
study of British Labour Party MPs elected at the 1997 pa rliamentary
election. Examining executive appointments at the cabinet and sub-
cabinet level, descriptive analysis shows no statistically significant
differences in the proportion of men and women reaching executive
positions, or the prestige and gender type of these positions. Regression
modeling confirms this, and sex is not found to be a significant driver of
these patterns. Three factors combined to achieve this — critical actors,
favorable context and a left-wing party in government. [R] [See Abstr.
66.6334]
66.6833 ALLISON, Michael E. — The Guatemalan National Revolu-
tionary unit: the long collapse. Democratization 23(6), Oct.
2016 : 1042-1058.
The Guatemalan National Revolutionary Unit (URNG) fought one of the
longest and bloodiest civil wars in recent Latin American history. In 1996,
the URNG and the Government of Guatemala signed a Firm and Lasting
Agreement ending the country’s civil war and initiating the URNG’s post-
war life as a political party. After finishing third in its initial electoral
competition, the URNG has since been unable to capture more than 4%
of the vote, on its own or in coalition, leaving it a minor political party.
What explains the poor electoral performance of the URNG as a political
party? Based upon fieldwork, elite interviews, and analysis of electoral
data, I argue that the URNG’s minor party performance was caused by
both organizational and institutional factors. [R] [See Abstr. 66.6381]
66.6834 ALSABBAGH, Soufiane — Pourquoi Trump va perdre (en
principe) (Why Trump is going to lose — in principle [in
the 2016 US presidential e lections]). Politique internatio-
nale 152, Summer 2016 : 37-52.
D. Trump's gains in the US opinion polls have taken all observers by
surprise; some are now rushing to predict his presidential victory over [H.
Clinton]. What they may be forgetting is that the numbers have a life of
their own. Regardless of who its candidate may be, and even before the
first vote is cast, the Republican party is many lengths behind the Demo-
crats in the race for the White House. One should always remember that
the U.S. election is played out in fifty constituencies. There are two major
obstacles in Trump’s way: the electoral college (the States fielding the
most electors are Democrat-inclined) and the demographic trends (the
proportion of voters from minority communities, who usually tend to vote
Democrat, keeps growing). [R, abr.]
66.6835 ANASTASOPOULOS, Lefteris — Estimating the gender
penalty in House of Representative elections using a re-
gression discontinuity design. Electoral Studie s 43, Sept.
2016 : 150-157.
While the number of female candidates running for office in US House of
Representative elections has increased considerably since the 1980s,
women continue to account for about only 20% of House members.
Whether this gap in female representation can be explained by a gender
penalty female candidates face as the result of discrimination on the part
of voters or campaign donors remains uncertain. I estimate the gender
penalty in US House of Representative general elections using a regres-
sion discontinuity design (RDD). Using this RDD, I assess whether
chance nomination of female candidates to run in the general election
Vie politique : opinion publique, attitudes, partis, forces, groupes et élections
721
affected the amount of cam paign funds raised, general election vote
share and probability of v ictory in House elections between 1982 and
2012. I find no evidence of a gender penalty using these measures. [R,
abr.]
66.6836 ANDERSON, Sarah E. ; BUTLER, Daniel M. ; HARBRIDGE,
Laurel — Legislative institutions as a source of [US] party
leaders' influence. Legislative Studies Quarterly 41(3), Aug.
2016 : 605-631.
Legislators' actions are influenced by party, constituency, and their own
views, each weighted differently. Our survey of [US] state legislators
finds that legislators’ own views are the strongest influence. We also find
that institutions are an important source of party leaders' influence.
Legislators in states where members rely more on party leaders —
states without term-limits, with less professional legislatures, and where
the ma jority party controls the agenda — put more weight on leaders'
preferences. Beyond direct party influence, the views of party leaders are
preemptively incorporated into legislators' preferences when the rules of
the legislature make party leaders more powerful. [R]
66.6837 ANSON, Ian G. — Just the facts? Partisan media and the
political conditioning of economic perceptions [USA]. Po-
litical Research Quarterly 69(3), Sept. 2016 : 444-456.
This paper analyzes the effects of biases in economic information on
partisans’ economic perceptions. In survey experiments, I manipulate the
presence of partisan cues and the direction of pro-attitudinal information
in news stories about the American economy. Results demonstrate that
although pro-attitudinal tone in factual economic news stories most
strongly affects partisans’ economic perceptions, inclusion of partisan
cues alongside pro-attitudinal information results in weaker shifts in
economic sentiment relative to stories lacking partisan content. These
findings suggest that the relatively subtle process of agenda-setting in
economic news may be the most effective tool used by partisan news
outlets to drive polarization in citizens’ factual economic perceptions. [R]
66.6838 APFELD, Brendan ; BRANHAM, Alexander — Campaign
shocks and party support: evidence from Brazil’s 2014
presidential election. Journal of Elections, Public Opinion
and Parties 26(3), Aug. 2016 : 336-353.
This article investigates the effect of exogenous shocks during an elec-
tion cycle on electoral outcomes. Specifically, we exam ine the impact of
the unexpected death of a prominent candidate, Eduardo Campos, in the
2014 Brazilian presidential election on support levels for the three main
parties. Did the effects die out relatively quickly, providing only a tempo-
rary “bounce” or dip in support levels? Or did they alter the fundamentals
of the campaign environment and produce a lasting change or “bump” in
support levels that lasted until the election? Our results show that while
the shock did have short-term effects on all parties’ support, it was only
the party that lost its leading candidate where any longer lasting shift in
support is detected. [R, abr.]
66.6839 ARIGA, Kenichi, et al. — No sorting, no advantage: re-
gression discontinuity estimates of incumbency ad-
vantage in Japan. Electoral Studies 43, Sept. 2016 : 21-31.
While the existing literature has identified a sizable incumbency ad-
vantage in single-member district (SMD) races in developed democra-
cies, we argue that some political and institutional contexts of Japan's
Lower House elections would undermine the incumbency advantage.
Our regression discontinuity (RD) analysis indeed shows little advantage,
and further examination suggests this as largely due to the “best-loser”
provision in Japan's mixed-member system, which gives a loser of SMD
competition a chance to be a “resurrected” incumbent. We also show no
evidence of sorting — i.e., systematic difference between bare winners
and bare losers — in close SMD races and thus add further evidence to
support the methodological argument that the election RD analysis is a
viable and promising research design. [R]
66.6840 ARZHEIMER, Kai ; SCHOEN, Harald — Political interest
furthers partisanship in England, Scotland, and Wales
[UK]. Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties 26(3),
Aug. 2016 : 373-389.
According to much of the literature, partisanship in Britain exercises little
independent influence on the vote but merely reflects voters’ prospective
and retrospective evaluations of the parties’ performance with regard to
their management of the economy, national security, and public services.
In this view, partisanship comes close to M . Fiorina’s model of a “running
tally” of political experiences. Similarly, R. Da lton’s notion of “cognitive
mobilization” suggests that seeking out political information should
undermine both the need for and the likelihood of party identification.
Applying Mixed Markov Latent Class Analysis to the British Election
Study Panel 1997-2000, we challenge these perceptions by demonstrat-
ing that partisanship is more stable than previously thought, and that
high levels of political interest are linked to higher levels of partisanship
and possibly also to higher levels of stability. [R, abr.]
66.6841 ASHOK, Vivekinan, e t al. — The dynamic election: pat-
terns of [US] early voting across time, state, party, and
age. Election Law Journal 15(2), 2016 : 115-128.
The nature of turnout has changed in the US: a shift in state policies has
transformed a singular Election Day into a multi-week voting period.
During the 2012 election, we assembled daily snapshots of early voting
records. We observe where and when individuals with key demographic
characteristics voted. By measuring the timing of voting by demographic
subgroups within small geographic areas, we assess how the early
voting period may differentially affect various politically relevant subsets
of the electorate. We find that partisans and older voters disproportion-
ately take advantage of early voting, and that political independents and
younger individuals who vote early do so much later in the early-voting
window. We discuss policy implications, and we also conduct an explora-
tory analysis of the relationship between early vote-timing and campaign
events. [R]
66.6842 ASLANIDIS, Paris ; ROVIRA KALTWASSER, Cristóbal —
Dealing with populists in government: the SYRIZA-ANEL
coalition in Greece. Democratization 23(6), Oct. 2016 :
1077-1091.
The Great Recession triggered an unprecedented level of political turmoil
in Greece, leading to a major readjustment of the party system and the
near disappearance of the once-mighty socialists of PASOK. Gradually,
SYRIZA — a radical-leftist-turned-populist party — rose to become the
key electoral player under the aegis of its young and popular leader,
Alexis Tsipras. SYRIZA eventually won two general elections in 2015
and ruled together with the populist radical right Independent Greeks
(ANEL) as junior partner, a coalition of great analytical significance,
representing the first ever governing alliance of left-wing and right-wing
populist parties in Europe. This contribution investigates reactions to the
SYRIZA-ANEL government, giving special emphasis to measures under-
taken by domestic and external actors. [R, abr.]
66.6843 BAEK Kanghui ; KIM Yeolib — Exploring the relationship
between mobile application use and political information
seeking and political discussion. Journal of Information
Technology and Politics 13(2), Apr.-June 2016 : 175-186.
This study examines the relationships between the use of mobile appli-
cations and two types of political behavior: political information-seeking
and political discussion. Based on a 2012 national survey of smartphone
users in South Korea, this study found positive relationships between (1)
the use of e-commerce, information, literacy, and utility apps and (2)
political information seeking and political discussion. By contrast, this
study found that the use of relational apps was negatively related to
political information seeking and not related to political discussion. The
use of entertainment apps was not associated with either behavior. This
study provides a starting point for examination of mobile apps as they
continuously grow and develop toward user engagement, and further-
more shed light on their effect on political participation. [R]
66.6844 BAIER, Walter — Europe at the crossroads: right popu-
lism and reactionary rebellion. Socialist Register 2016 : 68-
90.
The idea of the modernized radical right usually consists of a conception
of right-wing populism as a deviation from liberal democracy. It hardly
makes sense, however, to subsume the radical left, which aims at ex-
tending democracy, and the radical right, which aims at reining in if not
even abolishing democracy, under the single concept “populism”. Is it
political competitors who seek to defeat their opponents in the competi-
tion for popularity who are motivated by opportunism? Or is it the mass
media, which act as gatekeepers in vying for the consent of the masses
for commercial reasons? Indeed, is all political communication populist?
And how can a combination of nativism, authoritarianism, and populism
manage to become a political project with considerable prospects for
success? [See Abstr. 66.6912]
66.6845 BAILEY, Michael A. ; HOPKINS, Daniel J. ; ROGERS, Todd
— Unresponsive and unpersuaded: the unintended con-
sequences of a [US] voter persuasion effort. Political Be-
havior 38(3), 2016 : 713-746.
To date, field experiments on campaign tactics have focused overwhelm-
ingly on mobilization and voter turnout, with far more limited attention to
persuasion and vote choice. We analyze a field experiment with 56,000
Wisconsin [US] voters designed to measure the persuasive effects of
canvassing, phone calls, and mailings during the 2008 presidential
election. Focusing on the canvassing treatment, we find that persuasive
appeals had two unintended consequences. First, they reduced respon-
siveness to a follow-up survey among infrequent voters, a substantively
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