IV Political Process : Public Opinion, Attitudes, Parties, Forces, Groups and Elections / Vie Politique : Opinion Publique, Attitudes, Partis, Forces, Groupes et Élections
| DOI | http://doi.org/10.1177/00208345221117663 |
| Published date | 01 August 2022 |
| Date | 01 August 2022 |
505
IV
POLITICAL PROCESS : PUBLIC OPINION,
ATTITUDES, PARTIES, FORCES, GROUPS AND ELECTIONS
VIE POLITIQUE : OPINION PUBLIQUE,
ATTITUDES, PARTIS, FORCES, GROUPES ET ÉLECTIONS
72.4701 ABRAHAM, Kavi Joseph — Midcentury modern: the
emergence of stakeholders in democratic practice. American Po-
litical Science Review 116(2), May 2022 : 631-644.
Since the 1960s, “the stakeholder,” or affected party, has emerged
as a novel democratic subject whose participation in varied institu-
tional is seen as necessary for the management of complex prob-
lems. However, few specifically attend to the stakeholder as a distinct
political subject and consider its implications for democratic practice.
This paper presents a genealogy of the stakeholder, documenting its
appearance in corporate managerialism and US public administration
and showing how racial mobilization, rapid technological progress,
and the political rationality of systems thinking provided the conditions
of possibility for its emergence. Though orienting democracy around
stakeholders permits opportunities for participation in political life, I
argue that this subject is predicated on a circumscribed form of par-
ticipatory politics that erodes habits of discovering a common good,
erases distinctions between individuals and corporate bodies, and
amplifies the problem of expertise. [R, abr.]
72.4702 ACKERMANN, Kathrin ; GUNDELACH, Birte — Psycho-
logical roots of political consumerism: personality traits and
participation in boycott and buycott. International Political Science
Review 43(1), Jan. 2022 : 36-54.
Political consumerism is currently one of the most prevalent forms of
non-institutionalized political engagement in Western democracies.
This article aims to understand its psychological roots. We expect in-
terindividual differences in psychological dispositions to be particu-
larly relevant for political consumerism due to the individualized and
cause-oriented nature of this form of political action. Our empirical
evidence supports this claim: Open people favor, and conscientious
people avoid, boycotting and buycotting. Agreeable persons tend to
avoid boycotting in particular. These relationships persist even when
political and social attitudes are controlled for. Thus, we show that
psychological factors play an important role in shaping politically con-
scious consumption behavior. At the same time, our study points out
that personality profiles vary across different forms of political con-
sumerism and modes of political action more generally. [R, abr.]
72.4703 ACUÑA-DUARTE, Andrés A. ; SALAZAR, César A. —
Conditioning factors for re-election and incumbency advantage
after a natural disaster: evidence from a large-scale earthquake.
Journal of Development Studies 57(10), 2021 : 1575-1592.
This paper proposes a theoretical and an empirical approach to eval-
uate the unrestricted and conditional impact of natural disasters on
the continuity of local authorities. Our theoretical framework treats
natural disasters as an exogenous shock that is beyond the incum-
bent’s influence but provides valuable information to rational voters
about high-quality candidates. The empirical approach uses county-
level data to test this model by estimating the impact of the Chile
earthquake occurred in 2010 on re-election probability and incumbent
mayor’s vote share. Aggregate- and individual-level evidence shows
that incumbents’ continuity is not unconditionally threatened due to
the earthquake, but contingent on conditioning factors that exacer-
bate or mitigate its negative effect on incumbency advantage. That
is, local governments with higher human capital endowments and a
better post-disaster assessment are more likely to be re-elected in
Chile. [R, abr.]
72.4704 AGADJANIAN, Alexander ; LACY, Dean — Changing
votes, changing identities? Racial fluidity and vote switching in
the 2012-2016 US presidential elections. Public Opinion Quarterly
85(3), Fall 2021 : 737-752.
Using panel data with waves around two recent presidential elections,
this article reveals survey evidence of racial fluidity and its strong re-
lationship with vote-switching patterns. Across several models and
robust to various controls, switching from a non-Republican vote in
2012 to a 2016 Republican vote (i.e., non-Romney to Trump) signifi-
cantly predicts nonwhite to white race change. Among nonwhites who
did not vote Republican in 2012, switching to a Republican vote in
2016 increases the probability of adopting a white racial identity from
a 0.03 baseline to 0.49, a 1,533 percent increase. Individuals origi-
nally identifying as Mixed and Hispanic drive this identity-voting link.
A parallel dynamic on the Democratic side — new Democratic voters
moving from white to nonwhite identities — does not occur. [R, abr.]
72.4705 AGIUS, Christine — "This is not who we are": gendered
bordering practices, ontological insecurity, and lines of continu-
ity under the Trump presidency. Review of International Studies
48(2), Apr. 2022 : 385-402.
The Trump presidency ushered in a heightened sense of ontological
insecurity in the US, based on a national self-narrative that portrayed
an emasculated America. Trump promised to return the US to pri-
macy by pursuing policies and practices that focused on border pro-
tection, militarisation, and the vilification of external others, while am-
plifying racial tensions within the country. From caging immigrant chil-
dren at the border, to an enabling of white supremacy and the Capitol
riots, Trump’s presidency was broadly seen as aberration in the self-
narrative of America as a tolerant, democratic nation. In this article, I
am interested in how gendered bordering practices inform ontological
(in)security in Trump’s narrative of the nation, domestic and external
policy, and discourses. While Trump’s electoral loss to Biden in 2020
has been described as a ‘return to normal’, this article instead con-
siders how Trump’s presidency exhibited lines of continuity when ex-
amined through a gender lens. [R, abr.]
72.4706 AHLSTROM-VIJ, Kristoffer — On the robustness of so-
cial-circle surveys: respondent selection issues, egocentrism,
and homophily. Electoral Studies 75, Feb. 2022 : 102433.
The paper uses a set of simulation studies to argue that the superior-
ity of social-circle surveys can be expected to be robust in the face of
respondent selection issues (e.g., non-response and coverage bias),
people being highly fallible about other people’s preferences (ego-
centric bias), and people largely surrounding themselves with those
who share their preferences (homophily). Second, it reports on a sur-
vey experiment offering preliminary evidence that egocentric bias in
particular can be reduced significantly through a simple survey
prompt. In closing, the paper also discusses the relationship between
social-circle questions and the type of closely related expectation
questions (e.g., “Who do you expect will win the election?“) typically
found on prediction markets — markets for placing bets on future or
otherwise unknown events — which also tend to outperform tradi-
tional polls. [R, abr.]
72.4707 AIDT, Toke ; LEON-ABLAN, Gabriel — The interaction of
structural factors and diffusion in social unrest: evidence from
Political process : public opinion, attitudes, parties, forces, groups and elections
506
the Swing riots. British Journal of Political Science 52(2), Apr. 2022 :
869-885.
Studies of the causes of social unrest typically focus on structural
factors or diffusion. This article demonstrates the importanc e of con-
sidering their interaction and reveals a complex interplay between the
two. This interaction is examined in the context of the English Swing
riots of 1830-1831, in which it is possible to observe the structural
factors relevant to each specific incident; this is often impossible
when analyzing more recent cases of unrest. The authors find that
the riots were triggered by economic factors and that diffusion more
than tripled the direct effect of changes in local factors. Economic
factors and the presence of potential riot leaders made an area more
susceptible to the incoming diffusion of riots. [R, abr.]
72.4708 AIDT, Toke ; LEON-ABLAN, Gabriel ; SATCHELL, Max —
The social dynamics of collective action: evidence from the dif-
fusion of the Swing riots, 1830-1831. Journal of Politics 84(1), Jan.
2022 : 209-225.
Social unrest often begins suddenly and spreads quickly. What is the
information that drives its diffusion? How is this information transm it-
ted? And who responds to this information? We present a general
framework that emphasizes three aspects of the diffusion process:
the networks through which information travels, whether information
about repression affects participation, and the role of organizers. We
use this framework to derive empirical hypotheses that we test in the
context of the English Swing riots of 1830-1831. This was the foun-
dational case in the study of unrest in social history, and our identifi-
cation strategy relies on spatiotemporal variation particular to this his-
torical period. We find that diffusion was significant and that infor-
mation about the riots traveled through personal and trade networks
but not through transport or mass media networks. [R, abr.]
72.4709 ALAKOC, Burcu Pinar ; GOKSEL, Gulay Ugur ; ZARY-
CHTA, Alan — Political discourse and public attitudes toward
Syrian refugees in Turkey. Comparative Politics 53(3), Apr. 2022 :
online.
Sustaining positive attitudes toward refugees is a priority as refugee
crises surge worldwide. This study draws on eighty-five in-depth in-
terviews with citizens in four provinces across Turkey. We identified
prominent frames from Turkish political discourse and asked individ-
uals to recount their self-narratives of attitude formation about Syrian
refugees. We find that most respondents’ narratives included multiple
frames, confirming th at attitudes are often products of contradictory
factors. Furthe rmore, humanitarianism and shared religion, frames
thought to support positive attitudes, did not have such straightfor-
ward associations here. Humanitarianism was a positive force early,
but had limits as compassion fatigue set in, and respondents de-
scribed polarizing differences in religious practices rather than shared
religion. [R, abr.]
72.4710 ALPER ECEVIT, Yuksel ; SGOURAKI KINSEY, Barbara
— Minority candidates on party lists: evidence from Belgium.
Acta Politica 57(2), Apr. 2022 : 341-376.
Nomination of candidates of non-Western origin on party lists is a
major step toward immigrant-origin minorities’ political representa-
tion. However, its determinants are understudied. This paper focuses
on such nominations by parties on the Left, Social Democratic and
Green. We extend theory on the electoral risks of nominating immi-
grant-origin minority candidates to study systematically how cultural
citizenship conditions the effects of political and economic factors on
number of nominations. Belgium provides excellent testing grounds
due to regional variation in cultural citizenship between Flanders and
Wallonia, while electoral and citizenship acquisition laws remain con-
stant. We collected an original dataset on 589 municipalities in the
2006 local elections, and conduct our analysis using Poisson regres-
sion models for count data that incorporate alternative explanations.
[R, abr.]
72.4711 ALT, James E., et al. — Diffusing political concerns:
how unemployment information passed between social ties in-
fluences Danish voters. Journal of Politics 84(1), Jan. 2022 : 383-
404.
We investigate whether information about unemployment shocks dif-
fuses through networks of strong and mostly weak social ties and in-
fluences voters in Denmark. We link surveys with population-level ad-
ministrative data that log unemployment shocks afflicting respond-
ents’ familial, vocational, and educational networks. Our results show
that the share of second-degree social ties — individ uals that voters
learn about indirectly — that became unemployed within the last year
increases a voter’s perception of national unem ployment, self-as-
sessed risk of becoming unemployed, support for unemployment in-
surance, and voting for left-wing political parties. Voters’ beliefs about
national aggregates respond to all shocks similarly, whereas subjec-
tive perceptions and preferences respond primarily to unemployment
shocks afflicting second-degree ties in similar vocations. This sug-
gests that information diffusion through social ties principally affects
political preferences via egotropic — rather than sociotropic — mo-
tives. [R, abr.]
72.4712 ALTMAN, David ; SÁNCHEZ, Clemente T. — Citizens at
the polls: direct democracy in the world, 2020. Taiwan Journal of
Democracy 17(2), Dec. 2021 : 27-48.
There is suggestive evidence that the growth of democracy has stag-
nated, and even some signs indicate that democracy is in retreat. In
such a context, one might have expected to witness an increase in
experimentation with democratic innovations such as direct democ-
racy. This is not the case. While there is a spectacular and statistically
significant increase in the uses of mechanisms of direct democracy
(MDDs) since the early 1990s, 2020 remained notably similar to the
previous years in terms of the level of direct democracy worldwide. In
2019, we witnessed less than half of the MDDs we saw in 2018 (eight-
een vs. fifty), but, in 2020, the count bounced back to thirty. The
COVID-19 pandemic did not halt the march of direct democracy, alt-
hough it delayed some of its events. Beyond the specific number of
popular votes in 2020, direct democracy still tracks almost perfectly
with global electoral democracy trends. [R, abr.]
72.4713 ANDERSSON, Henrik, et al. — Effects of settlement into
ethnic enclaves on immigrant voter turnout. Journal of Politics
84(1), Jan. 2022 : 578-584.
What is the effect of residing in ethnic enclaves on immigrants’ future
political participation? We study a comprehensive refugee placement
reform that was implemented in Sweden in the mid-1980s in combi-
nation with unique individual-level turnout data to study the causal
effect of being settled in neighborhoods with a high residential con-
centration of co-ethnics on immigrants’ future probability of voting.
We find little evidence that ethnic concentration per se affects voter
turnout. On average, newly arrived immigrants were equally likely to
vote whether they were placed in a neighborhood with many or few
co-ethnics. Further analyses, however, indicate that the effect of eth-
nic concentration depends on the degree of political integration
among previously settled co-ethnics; ethnic concentration increases
turnout among the newly immigrated when they are placed with al-
ready politically integrated co-ethnics. [R, abr.]
72.4714 ANG, Zoe, et al. — Partisanship, economic assess-
ments, and presidential accountability. American Journal of Polit-
ical Science 66(2), Apr. 2022 : 468-484.
Few issues are more salient for voters or more important in political
decision-making than economic conditions, and no American public
official is more closely associated with the economy than the presi-
dent. Existing scholarship disagrees, however, about how partisan
loyalties affect economic evaluations. We study how partisan co ntrol
of the presidency affects economic perceptions using eight waves of
panel data collected around the 2016 presidential election from a na-
tional probability sample. We find that although individual-level per-
ceptions are largely stable across time, the change in partisan control
of the White House was associated with more positive evaluations
among Republicans and more negative evaluations among Demo-
crats. These effects are statistically significant yet substantively mod-
est in magnitude. [R, abr.]
72.4715 ARCIMOWICZ, Jolanta ; BIEŃKO, Mariola ; ŁACIAK,
Beata — The social paradox of citizen denunciation: informing
Vie politique : opinion publique, attitudes, partis, forces, groupes et élections
507
practices in modern Poland. East European Politics and Societies
and Cultures 36(2), 2022 : 486-508.
Within sociological literature, including that which analyses systemic
changes in the countries of the former Eastern Bloc, denunciation is
one of the least studied issues, both empirically and theoretically. In
Poland after the political transformation, as well as in other post-com-
munist countries, the problem of dealing with the security service and
secret police informers and collaborators has not gone away. News
media report a rapidly growing number of denunciations directed to
various institutions and administrative offices, and legal regulations
regarding denunciations have also appeared. In public discourse, de-
nunciation and whistleblowing are increasingly often equated. En-
couragement to inform about aberrations, confronted with the conse-
quences that whistleblowers face, shows the legal and social vacuum
around the institution of whistleblowing in Poland. This article, in re-
sponse to questions about the modern social image of denunciation,
is based on analysis of in-depth individual interviews conducted dur-
ing 2015-2017 with children, adults, and administrative officials in
three Polish cities. The results show that both children and adults
treat denunciation as a form of harming others, though they do differ-
entiate their moral judgments depending on the delator’s intention,
but they rarely attribute any motive other than personal gain to whis-
tleblowers’ actions. [R, abr.]
72.4716 ARIAS, Sabrina B. ; BLAIR, Christopher W. — Changing
tides: public attitudes on climate migration. Journal of Politics
84(1), Jan. 2022 : 560-567.
Little existing work studies public perceptions of climate-induced mi-
gration. We redress this gap, drawing on diverse literatures in political
science and social psychology. We argue that climate migrants oc-
cupy an intermediate position in the public view, garnering greater
support than traditional economic migrants but less support than ref-
ugees. Evidence from a conjoint experiment embedded in nationally
representative surveys of 2,160 respondents in the US and Germany
provide support for this claim. Importantly, this result holds for internal
and international migrants. These findings suggest the importance of
humanitarian considerations and empathy in shaping migration atti-
tudes. We use a follow-up factorial experiment to explore potential
policy implications of public support for climate migrants. [R, abr.]
72.4717 ARIELY, Gal — Ethno-national divisions in Turkey and
Israel: a comparison of system support. Turkish Studies 22(5),
2021 : 694-722.
This study explores the differences in system support between the
ethnic majority and ethnic minority populations in Turkey and Israel,
taking into account three specific dimensions of system support: na-
tional identity, evaluation of democracy, and institutional trust. A com-
parison of the gaps in these dimensions is conducted using surveys.
The findings show that, in both countries, the majority tends to show
higher levels of system support than the minority. Among the Turkish
Kurdish minority, lower levels of system support can be found across
all the dimensions examined, while among the Palestinian citizens of
Israel minority, the gaps are bigger in the cultural aspect of national
identity but much smaller in the evalua tion of democracy and institu-
tional trust. [R, abr.]
72.4718 ARMSTRONG, David A., II ; LUCAS, Jack ; TAYLOR,
Zack — The urban-rural divide in Canadian federal elections,
1896-2019. Canadian Journal of Political Science 55(1), March
2022 : 84-106.
Using a new measure of urbanity for every federal electoral district in
Canada from 1896 to the present, this article describes the long-term
development of the urban-rural divide in Canadia n federal elections.
We focus on three questions: (1) when the urban-rural divide has ex-
isted in Canada, identifying three main periods — the 1920s, the
1960s and 1993-present — in which the urban-rural cleavage has
been especially important in federal elections; (2) where the urban-
rural divide has existed, finding that in the postwar period the urban-
rural cleavage is a pan-Canadian phenomenon; and (3) how well ur-
banity predicts district-level election outcomes. We argue that the ur-
ban-rural divide is important for understanding election outcomes
during several periods of Canadian political development, and never
more so than in recent decades. [R, abr.]
72.4719 ARVATE, Paulo ; FIRPO, Sergio ; PIERI, Renan — Can
women’s performance in elections determine the engagement of
adolescent girls in politics? European Journal of Political Economy
70, Dec. 2021 : 102045.
Women are responsible for important results in the public sector, but
their participation as politicians is still small. One possible way of cor-
recting this situation in the future will be to increase the degree to
which adolescent girls participate in politics. The literature about
women’s empowerment has identified that adolescent girls partici-
pate more in politics when role model women are elected. Unlike this
literature, however, we run a regression discontinuity design and we
show that the defeat of a woman also leads to other wom en being
discouraged from participating. Our main idea is that the performance
of female politicians has an influence on the engagement in politics
of adolescent girls. Our measure of this engagement is not generated
by measuring the perception of the aspirations of adolescent girls, but
is taken from net registration to vote between Brazilian municipalities
with victorious and defeated female leaders (mayors). [R, abr.]
72.4720 ASADZADE, Peyman — Higher education and violent
revolutionary activism under authoritarianism : subnational evi-
dence from Iran. Conflict Management and Peace Science 39(2),
March 2022 : 143-165.
Existing research shows that education reduces the likelihood of in-
dividuals’ participation in political violence and increases conven-
tional political participation, such as voting. However, how does edu-
cation affect political behavior in authoritarian contexts where oppor-
tunities for conventional political participation are limited or non-exist-
ent? Focusing on higher education, I argue that college education is
likely to encourage violent revolutionary activism in authoritarian con-
texts because of two mechanisms. First, higher educational institu-
tions facilitate social network-building and, as a result, make recruit-
ment easier. Second, higher education increases expectations for po-
litical participation in authoritarian contexts where opportunities for in-
stitutionalized activity are often limited. The absence of peaceful
paths for political engagement makes violent a ctivism an appealing
choice un der authoritarianism. I use an original dataset of Iranian
armed revolutionary activists in the 1960s and the 1970s to test the
argument. [R, abr.]
72.4721 ASLANIDIS, Paris — Coalition-making under condi-
tions of ideological mismatch: the populist solution. International
Political Science Review 42(5), Nov. 2021 : 631-648.
This article problematizes how non-spatial factors facilitate the for-
mation of extraordinary ideologically mismatched government coali-
tions. An intensive case-study analysis of the SYRIZA-ANEL govern-
ments in Greece (2015-2019) suggests that a shared symbolic dis-
course directed against mainstream contenders allowed elite actors
with widely disparate programmatic commitments to circumvent rigid
constraints imposed by minimal range theory. Under conditions of
acute polarization and socio-economic upheaval owing to the Greek
sovereign debt crisis, a strategic use of populist anti-bailout discourse
upset the usual order of party competition along spatial dimensions,
fostering cross-ideological cohabitation at the executive level be-
tween the radical-left SYRIZA and the radical-right ANEL for a total
of four years. Once core ideological commitments become explicitly
challenged, inelastic policy-oriented factions and voting blocs may ul-
timately precipitate the expiration of the populist coalition. [R, abr.]
72.4722 AUERBACH, Adam Michael, et al. — Rethinking the
study of electoral politics in the developing world: reflections on
the Indian case. Perspectives on Politics 20(1), March 2022 : 250-
264.
In the study of electoral politics and political behavior in the develop-
ing world, India is often considered to be an exemplar of the centrality
of contingency in distributive politics, the role of ethnicity in shaping
political behavior, and the organizational weakness of political par-
ties. Whereas these axioms have some empirical basis, the massive
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