IV Political Process : Public Opinion, Attitudes, Parties, Forces, Groups and Elections / Vie Politique : Opinion Publique, Attitudes, Partis, Forces, Groupes et Élections
| DOI | http://doi.org/10.1177/00208345221142363 |
| Published date | 01 December 2022 |
| Date | 01 December 2022 |
797
IV
POLITICAL PROCESS : PUBLIC OPINION,
ATTITUDES, PARTIES, FORCES, GROUPS AND ELECTIONS
VIE POLITIQUE : OPINION PUBLIQUE,
ATTITUDES, PARTIS, FORCES, GROUPES ET ÉLECTIONS
72.7258 ABELS, Gabriele, et al. — The 2021 federal German elec-
tion: a gender and intersectional analysis. Politics 42(3),
Aug. 2022 : 249-266.
On 26 September 2021, Germans elected the 20th Bundestag. This elec-
tion was special in many ways. The article analyses the electoral cam-
paign, voting behaviour, turnout, and the formation of a new coalition gov-
ernment by using a gender and intersectional lens. Against the conceptual
background of descriptive, substantive, and symbolic representation, we
outline the implications of the election for gender and intersectional politics
in the new German Bundestag and the government. In descriptive and
symbolic terms, we find higher numbers of women (and of minorities) in
the Bundestag and its leadership as well as in government; in substantive
terms, we observe the presence of ‘critical actors’ and the commitment to
progressive politics in the new ‘Ampel’ coalition. Hence, we see at least a
chance for change in several key policy areas and social progress in the
next 4 years. [R]
72.7259 ABIZADEH, Arash — A recursive measure of voting power
with partial decisiveness or efficacy. Journal of Politics
84(3), July 2022 : 1652-1666.
The current literature standardly conceives of voting power in terms of de-
cisiveness: the ability to change the voting outcome by unilaterally chang-
ing one’s vote. I argue that this classic conception of voting power, which
fails to account for partial decisiveness or efficacy, produces erroneous
results because it saddles the concept of voting power with implausible
microfoundations. This failure in the measure of voting power in turn re-
flects a philosophical mistake about the concept of social power in general:
a failure to recognize that an agent can exercise individual social power
with others’ assistance, in virtue of the group’s collective power, some-
times even when she could not unilaterally scuttle the group’s collective
power. I therefore develop a conception of efficacy that admits of degrees
and defend a Recursive Measure of voting power that takes partial efficacy
into account. [R]
72.7260 ACHIMESCU, Vlad ; SULTĂNESCU, Dan ; SULTĂNESCU,
Dana C. — The path from distrusting Western actors to
conspiracy beliefs and noncompliance with public health
guidance during the COVID-19 crisis. Journal of Elections,
Public Opinion and Parties Suppl. 1, 2021 : 299-310.
during the lockdown and the state of alert (April and July 2020) using sur-
vey data. We identify the public’s vulnerability to conspiracy narratives and
its willingness to comply with public health guidance. We test whether in-
dividuals exhibiting pro-Russian or anti-Western attitudes believe more
population. Then, we check if those believing conspiracy narratives are
less susceptible to comply with public health recommendations. We find
an indirect relationship between distrusting Western actors and noncom-
and NATO attitudes are linked to stronger conspiracy beliefs, which relate
to lower levels of concern and knowledge regarding the virus, which in turn
are associated with reduced compliance with official guidelines. [R] [See
Abstr. 72.7740]
72.7261 ACKERMANN, Kathrin ; STADELMANN-STEFFEN, Isabelle
— Voting in the echo chamber? Patterns of political online
activities and voting behavior in Switzerland. Swiss Politi-
cal Science Review 28(2), June 2022 : 377-400.
Understanding the political consequences of digitalization is among the
key challenges for modern societies. A pressing issue is the question
whether political online activities make individuals more close-minded and
less willing to consider alternative arguments. We examine this question
using a peculiarity of the Swiss electoral system — the possibility to split
votes — as a behavioral outcome measure. We argue that political online
activities m ight either make individuals less likely to split votes (“echo
chamber”-argument) or more likely to spread their votes across parties
(“deliberation”-argument). Empirically, we use data from the Swiss
Election Study Selects 2019 to test these arguments. The results of a hi-
erarchical logistic regression analysis do not support any of the conflicting
arguments. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 72.7395]
72.7262 AGERBERG, Mattias — Messaging about corruption: the
power of social norms. Governance 35(3), July 2022 : 929-
950.
While commonly deployed in anti-corruption programs, corruption mes-
saging has shown limited success. I argue that strategies focusing on in-
junctive norms (what most people approve of) have been underutilized and
could be a feasible way of influencing perceptions in a desirable direction.
In two studies fielded in Mexico, I first identify a substantial discrepancy
between how individuals view the permissibility of corruption and their per-
ceptions of other people's attitudes. In a follow-up preregistered experi-
ment, I leverage this tension by randomly informing a treatment group
about people's strong anti-corruption attitudes. The results show that the
treatment group became significantly more positive with regard to the atti-
tudes of others. Moreover, they report higher interpersonal trust, are less
likely view corruption as a basic part of Mexican culture, and show lower
willingness to bribe. [R, abr.]
72.7263 Al-ALI, Nadje ; TAS, Latif — Kurdish women’s struggles
with gender equality: from ideology to practice. Third
World Quarterly 42(9), 2021 : 2133-2151.
The article explores the relationship between theory and practice in terms
of gender-based equality and justice within both the armed units and the
political–legal movement linked to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) in
Turkey and transnationally. An analysis of the historical developments of
both political ideology and mobilisation reveals the radical shift towards a
stated commitment to gender-based equality that has taken place within a
wider political transformation from a nationalist independence movement
to a movement pursuing radical democracy. The article focuses on the
dialectical relationship between the writings of the founder of the PKK, Ab-
dullah Öcalan, and the struggle of Kurdish female militants and political
activists to challenge male hegemony and patriarchal gender norms. We
recognise the centrality of Öcalan’s writings in the shift away from the em-
phasis on national liberation to the idea of radical democracy with gender
equality at is centre. [R, abr.]
72.7264 Al-DAYEL, Nadia — “Now is the time to wake up”: Islamic
State’s narratives of political awareness. Terrorism and Po-
litical Violence 33(6), 2021 : 1217-1236.
Terrorist organisations are increasingly seeking to attract transnational
membership. In particular, the Islamic State proudly displays transnational
support in its propaganda. As a result, academics have established that
themes of belonging, religious fulfilment, victimhood and utopia are im-
portant recruitment devices. This article reveals additional themes that en-
courage a critical reasoning of the power dynamics in the citizen-state re-
lationship, questioning the strength of religious ideology that is assumed
to attract and bind transnational membership. These themes are revealed
through an innovative, blended method of critical discourse analysis, in-
terpretivism and securitisation that examines the narratives and influence
of the recruitment actor on an international scale. After a review of the
Islamic State’s media operations, this method is applied to a prominent
video featuring a top recruiter and UN designated terrorist, Australian citi-
zen Neil Christopher Prakash. [R, abr.]
72.7265 ALEXIADOU, Despina ; O'MALLEY, Eoin — The leadership
dilemma: examining the impact of strong leaders on par-
ties. European Journal of Political Research 61(3), Aug. 2022 :
783-806.
Party leaders are often regarded as crucial to a party's success. Success-
ful leaders tend to be big personalities who dominate their party's organi-
sation, policy development and electoral campaigns. But does that control
come with a price? We test to see if such leaders damage their parties in
the medium term. This happens because strong leaders might be ceded
Political process : public opinion, attitudes, parties, forces, groups and elections
798
too much control of the party organisation, policy and electoral strategy.
We specifically hypothesise that political parties will go through a period of
leadership instability and electoral decline after strong leaders step down.
Using a dataset with elections under party leaders in nine countries over
a 25-year period, and a qualitative case study, we find some evidence for
the theory, which should prompt further research of the question. [R]
72.7266 ALGARA, Carlos ; HALE, Isaac ; STRUTHERS, Cory L. — No
balance, no problem: evidence of partisan voting in the
2021 Georgia US Senate runoffs. American Politics Re-
search 50(4), July 2022 : 443-463.
Recent work on American presidential elections suggests that voters en-
gage in anticipatory balancing, which occurs when voters split their ticket
in order to moderate collective policy outcomes by forcing agreement
among institutions controlled by opposing parties. We use the 2021 Geor-
gia US Senate runoffs, which determined whether Democrats would have
unified control of the federal government given preceding November vic-
tories by President-elect Biden and House Democrats, to evaluate support
for anticipatory balancing. Leveraging an original survey of Georgia voters,
we find no evidence of balancing within the general electorate and among
partisans across differing model specifications. We use qualitative content
analysis of voter electoral runoff intentions to support our findings and con-
textualize the lack of evidence for balancing withan original analysis show-
ing the unprecedented partisan nature of contemporary Senate elections
since direct-election began in 1914. [R]
72.7267 ALI, Sameen A. Mohsin ; MUFTI, Mariam — Political parties
and decentralization in Pakistan. Publius 52(2), Spring
2022 : 201-224.
Drawing on structuralist and voluntarist approaches, we investigate why
national party elites in Pakistan voted to devolve power to the provinces
under the 18th Amendment to the 1973 Constitution but are hesitant to
devolve meaningful fiscal and administrative power to the local level. We
argue that the explanation for this disjuncture lies in Pakistan’s history of
military experiments with local government, its candidate-centered party
system, and the re-election incentives of politicians at the national, provin-
cial and local levels. Using interviews with local government representa-
tives, politicians, and bureaucrats, and archival research through National
Assembly, Senate debates and newspapers, we show that devolution to
the provinces was a means of holding a fragile federation together. [R,
abr.]
72.7268 ALIZADE, Jeyhun ; ELLGER, Fabio — Do politicians dis-
criminate against constituents with an immigration back-
ground? Field experimental evidence from Germany. Jour-
nal of Politics 84(3), July 2022 : 1823-1827.
The diversification of Western European electorates due to immigration
raises the question whether politicians discriminate against constituents
with an immigrant background. While ethnic distance can explain lower
responsiveness to out-group constituents, shared partisanship might miti-
gate discrimination. We examine this issue through an audit experiment
with 1,522 members of parliament in 15 German state legislatures. We
find that politicians are 11 percentage points less likely to respond to a
constituent’s e-mail asking for a personal meeting if the sender has an
immigrant background (randomization inference p<.001 class="_"> Surprisingly,
there is no difference in rates of discrimination betw een leftist and rightist
parties. We also find evidence that signaling partisanship can mitigate the
immigrant-background effect. Our findings imply that on the dimension of
responsiveness, politicians — on the right and the left — might hamper
rather than foster the political integration of immigrants. [R]
72.7269 ALLERN, Elin Haugsgjerd, et al. — Policy positions, power
and interest group-party lobby routines. Journal of Euro-
pean Public Policy 29(7), 2022 : 1029-1048.
Prior literature points to the importance of party power and ideology for
interest group-party contacts in the legislative arena. But interest groups
do not often have ideologies — they are typically active in a small number
of policy domains and there may be different parties that share more sim-
ilar preferences across different policy areas. Therefore, we examine
whether and how party power and proximity in policy preferences predict
the existence of party-interest group ‘lobby routines’ in specific policy do-
mains, using a novel survey of representative samples of interest groups
in seven long-established democracies. We find that groups often form
routines with different parties in different policy areas and that preference
proximity on relevant policy dimensions is positively associated with hav-
ing such area-specific lobby routines. However, the results also suggest
that powerful parties are more likely allies and that the effect of policy prox-
imity on routines is positively conditioned by power. [R]
72.7270 ALYUKOV, Maxim — Making sense of the news in an au-
thoritarian regime: Russian television viewers’ reception
of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Europe-Asia Studies 74(3),
2022 : 337-359.
Scholars report contradictory findings regarding whether citizens trust me-
dia in autocracies. Relying on focus group methodology, this study uses
Russian television viewers’ reception of the Russia-Ukraine conflict to in-
vestigate media perception in an autocracy. It argues that citizens in non-
democracies lack the opportunities, motivation and tools to substantively
process news. When perceiving news, they express both critical and sup-
portive reactions towards the regime without integrating them into coher-
ent views and thus support authoritarian equilibrium by being unable to
articulate consistent opinions. This argument helps to explain the para-
doxes of media (dis)trust and clarifies the process of media perception in
authoritarian political systems. [R]
72.7271 ANDERSSON MALMROS, Robin — Translating ideas into
actions: analyzing local strategic work to counter violent
extremism. Democracy and Security 17(4), 2022 : 399-426.
Despite the growing importance of local action to counter violent extrem-
ism (CVE), empirical research on the local organization and management
of CVE is scarce, especially regarding public administrators’ strategic work
to translate policies and recommendations into frontline practice. B ased
mainly on ethnographic data and departing from new institutional theory,
the paper refines our understanding of the symbolic, material, and rela-
tional work used to translate a diverse flow of ideas into concrete action in
diverse institutional settings. Due to the institutional complexity, the cul-
tural skill of the local CVE coordinator is identified as pivotal to successfully
legitimizing and implementing CVE efforts. [R]
72.7272 ANDREWS-LEE, Caitlin ; GAMBOA, Laura — When hand-
picked successors of charismatic leaders prosper: the
surprising success of Juan Manuel Santos in Colombia.
Democratization 29(6), 2022 : 1116-1136.
Charismatic leaders, who loathe sharing power, often anoint sycophantic
successors who fail to become powerful leaders in their own right. Curi-
ously, however, Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos (2010–2018),
the handpicked successor of Alvaro Uribe (2002–2010), became a re-
markably effective leader who served two terms and oversaw Colombia’s
landmark 2016 peace agreement. We investigate this unlikely outcome
and develop a novel theory to reveal a pathway through which some hand-
picked successors of charismatic leaders can establish independent au-
thority. We argue that success is more likely when the successor breaks
away from the predecessor. However, doing so requires the successor to
engage in a sequential and highly strategic process we label tightrope
walking, in which the new leader gains the predecessor’s endorsement to
win office, expands his/her coalition by incorporating new allies from out-
side the predecessor’s base, and reforms the predecessor’s unsustaina-
ble policies and narrative. To substantiate our theory, we trace how Santos
moved through each stage of the tightrope-walking process and ultimately
broke from Uribe to achieve independent authority. The results suggest a
rare but important mechanism through which charismatic movements can
be challenged from the inside out, curtailing or reversing democratic ero-
sion. [R]
72.7273 ANNAN, Nancy, et al. — Civil society, peacebuilding from
below and shrinking civic space: the case of Cameroon’s
“Anglophone” conflict. Conflict Security and Development
21(6), 2022 : 697-725.
This article focuses on the current conflict in Anglophone Cameroon and
examines the role of civil society organisations (CSOs) in conflict resolu-
tion. In doing so, it explores a paradox in the peacebuilding literature. On
the one hand, the ‘local turn’ in peacebuilding has emphasised a bottom-
up approach that highlights the role of CSOs. On the other hand, the liter-
ature on ‘shrinking civic space’ has demonstrated how space for CSOs’
activities has become increasingly restricted, especially in authoritarian
contexts like Cameroon. The article investigates the contributions of CSOs
to conflict resolution, the constraints faced, and their responses in turn to
mitigate such constraints. CSOs’ contribution to conflict resolution is at
least three-fold: to engage with most-affected communities and build an
evidence base of the conflict’s adverse consequences for civilians; to draw
national and international attention to the conflict; and to maintain pressure
for a negotiated settlement through public protests and interactions with
both government and non-state armed groups. [R, abr.]
72.7274 ANSELL, Ben, et al. — Sheltering populists? House prices
and the support for populist parties. Journal of Politics
84(3), July 2022 : 1420-1436.
Populist parties, particularly from the right of the political spectrum, have
sharply increased their electoral support in recent years, creating great
media and scholarly interest. We suggest that the housing market may
have been important in defining who switched to populist voting and where
they were located. We build on existing work that connects house prices
to “first-dimension politics” of redistribution and classic left-right political
identification to argue that house prices might also shape preferences on
the “second dimension” of politics: support for populist nationalism versus
liberal cosmopo litanism. Using both novel precinct- and individual-level
Vie politique : opinion publique, attitudes, partis, forces, groupes et élections
799
data from Denmark, we show that negative shocks to house prices over
the election cycle are strongly associated with shifts to support for the Dan-
ish People’s Party, a pattern that has amplified over recent elections. [R,
abr.]
72.7275 ANSOLABEHERE, Stephen ; FRAGA, Bernard L. ;
SCHAFFNER, Brian F. — The Current Population Survey
voting and registration supplement overstates minority
turnout. Journal of Politics 84(3), July 2022 : 1850-1855.
The Current Population Survey (CPS) is a key source of information on
who votes. Turnout estimates derived from the CPS are often cited in ac-
ademic research on participation, widely used in the calibration of surveys,
and central to ongoing legal and policy debates over the protection of vot-
ing rights in the US. We compare CPS estimates to official voter turnout
records from 2008-2018 and document consistent, significant discrepan-
cies that call into question the reliability of CPS turnout statistics. Specifi-
cally, the CPS overestimates black and Hispanic turnout relative to non-
Hispanic whites, whether relying on turnout rates as a share of eligible
citizens or the racial/ethnic composition of the voting population. Sampling
error and commonly used adjustments to CPS estimates do not account
for or correct this bias. [R, abr.]
72.7276 ARES, Macarena ; BÜRGISSER, Reto ; HÄUSERMANN, Silja
— Attitudinal polarization towards the redistributive role
Elections, Public Opinion and Parties Suppl. 1, 2021 : 41-55.
The COVID-19 crisis presents a unique opportunity to study how public
opinion towards the redistributive role of the state reacts to a major eco-
nomic shock. The pandemic and the measures taken to stop it exposed
citizens to both increased fiscal constraint and heightened redistributive
capacity: historical drops in GDP (and fiscal revenue) coincided with un-
precedented increases in public spending on healthcare provisions and
social policy, as well as staggering amounts of financial liquidity provided
to hard-hit economic sectors. How did this affect citizens’ attitudes towards
redistribution and their assessments of the capacity of the state to inter-
vene? To tackle these questions, we rely on a two-wave panel survey
fielded in Germany, Sweden and Spain in late 2018 and June 2020. [R,
abr.] [See Abstr. 72.7740]
72.7277 ARON, Hadas ; SUPERTI, Chiara — Protest at the ballot
box: from blank vote to populism. Party Politics 28(4), July
2022 : 638-650.
Populist parties foment discontent with the establishment. Previous stud-
ies explored whether sentiments of discontent and protest can predict pop-
ulist voting. In this paper, we argue that past electoral protest in a commu-
nity, rather than merely a sense of discontent, is a good predictor of new
populist lists and their electoral support. We explore this connection using
blank voting, a measure that allows a systematic and unbiased evaluation
of protest at the municipal level. We first test our theory on the Italian Five
Star Movement (M5S). Controlling for economic and demographic varia-
bles, we demonstrate that in municipalities with high blank vote in previous
elections, the probability of new M5S lists and M5S vote share were
higher. Testing the generalizability of our theory using cross-national pop-
ulism data, we show that past protest in the form of blank/null voting is a
strong predictor of the level of populist rhetoric in a political system. [R]
72.7278 ARTÉS, Joaquín, et al. — Do actions speak louder than
words? Evidence on voter behavior from Madrid Rio Park.
Electoral Studies 78, Aug. 2022 : 102489.
We estimate the electoral gains and the timing of the gains, from the prom-
ise to build and the subsequent construction of a large infrastructure pro-
ject, Madrid Rio Park, wh ich was promised in the 2003 Madrid Mayoral
election. We use as a case study the construction of the Madrid Rio Park
because its unique circumstances provide us with a quasi experiment that
allows us to causally separate the prospective and retrospective behavior
of voters regarding electoral pledges. We find that voters behave mostly
retrospectively. The retrospective effects are sizable in magnitude: we find
that after the Madrid Rio Park was completed voters rewarded the incum-
bent with an additional three percentage points. Unexpectedly, but inter-
estingly, we find only weak evidence of prospective behavior: voters do
not strongly react to the promise to build the infrastructure. [R]
72.7279 ARUGUETE, Natalia, et al. — Partisan cues and perceived
risks: the effect of partisan social media frames during the
COVID-19 crisis in Mexico. Journal of Elections, Public Opin-
ion and Parties Suppl. 1, 2021 : 82-95.
We present the results of a survey experiment designed to evaluate the
effects of social media exposure on perceptions of personal health and job
treats respondents to positive and negative partisan messages from high-
level politicians. Descriptive findings show divergent evaluations of how
the government is addressing the crisis by supporters of the government
and opposition parties. Results show that respondents are sensitive to
negative frames regardless of the political color of the messenger. Further,
supporters of the incumbent are more likely to deflect government’s re-
sponsibility when treated with a negative frame by a politician from the
opposition. [R] [See Abstr. 72.7740]
72.7280 ASANO, Taka-aki, et al. — Predictable crises shape public
opinion: evidence from the COVID-19 natural experiment.
Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties Suppl. 1,
2021 : 311-320.
affect public opinion? To answer this question, we analyze a nationwide
random sampling survey (n = 2053 respondents) coinciding with the period
from the beginning of the outbreak of COVID-19 to its peak. This scale and
timing enable us to trace a shift in public opinion. We find that the levels
of public support for big government had increased before the spread of
COVID-19. Furthermore, the results show that with the sudden growth of
patients, people predicted a future economic crisis and thus demanded
the government to implement economic stimulus measures to reduce
damage. Our findings imply that public opinion is formed earlier than crises
actually materialize. [R] [See Abstr. 72.7740]
72.7281 ATWELL, Paul ; NATHAN, Noah L. — Channels for influence
or maps of behavior? A field experiment on social net-
works and cooperation. American Journal of Political Sci-
ence 66(3), July 2022 : 696-713.
Communities in developing countries often must cooperate to self-provide
or co-produce local public goods. Many expect that community social net-
works facilitate this cooperation, but few studies directly observe real-life
networks in these settings. We collect detailed social network data in rural
Northern Ghana to explore how social positions and proximity to commu-
nity leaders predict donations to a local public good. We then implement a
field experiment manipulating participants' opportunity to communicate
and apply social pressure before donating. We find clear evidence that
locations in community social networks predict cooperative behavior, but
no evidence that communication improves coordination or cooperation, in
contrast to common theoretical expectations and laboratory findings. [R,
abr.]
72.7282 BALTA, Evren ; ROVIRA KALTWASSER, Cristóbal ; YAGC I,
Alper H. — Populist attitudes and conspiratorial thinking.
Party Politics 28(4), July 2022 : 625-637.
What happens to the anti-establishment sentiments of pro-incumbent vot-
ers for a populist force that is in government and thus controls the political
system? This article examines this question utilizing the case of Turkey, a
country in which a populist force has been in power for more than a dec-
ade. By analyzing populist attitudes among a nationally representative
sample, we demonstrate that while the voters of the incumbent populist
party (AKP) are less likely, compared to everyone else, to hold populist
sentiments, the same voters are also substantially more likely to endorse
conspiracy theories that center on malign foreign powers. [R, abr.]
72.7283 BANDAU, Frank — The electoral crisis of social democ-
racy: postindustrial dilemmas or neoliberal contamina-
tion? Political Studies Review 20(3), Aug. 2022 : 493-503.
The crisis of social democracy has been the subject of numerous articles
and books from different fields such as party politics, political sociology,
and political economy. This article contrasts two competing explanations
prevalent in the related literature. According to the postindustrial dilemmas
hypothesis, the crisis of social democracy is the inevitable result of the
transition from industrial to postindustrial society and the electoral trade-
offs social democrats are facing as a consequence. The neoliberal con-
tamination hypothesis instead emphasizes social democracy’s neoliberal
turn and the resulting loss of trust in social democracy, especially among
working-class voters. It is argued that both hypotheses are not only based
on diverging conceptions of partisan politics, pitting Downs against Gram-
sci, but also on different theories of capitalist development (modernization
theory vs Polanyian “double movement”). [R, abr.]
72.7284 BANKERT, Alexa — Negative partisanship among Inde-
pendents in the 2020 US presidential elections. Electoral
Studies 78, Aug. 2022 : 102490.
Negative partisanship has been on the rise in American politics: While
many Americans feel lukewarm about their own party, disdain toward the
opposing party is steadily intensifying. Prior scholarship has examined to
what extent negative partisanship can arise without any prior attachments
to a particular party. Yet, most preceding work focuses on self-declared
supporters of a political party who — by definition — have a positive party
identification, thereby making it challenging to disentangle positive and
negative partisanship. I address this conceptual difficulty by surveying self-
identified Independents shortly before the 2020 US presidential elections.
I show that negative partisanship among Independents predicts turnout,
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