A lost opportunity of a grand bargain: Security architecture between NATO and Russia
| Author | Sumantra Maitra |
| DOI | http://doi.org/10.1177/00207020221096215 |
| Published date | 01 March 2022 |
| Date | 01 March 2022 |
| Subject Matter | Policy Brief |
Policy Brief
International Journal
2022, Vol. 77(1) 137–143
© The Author(s) 2022
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DOI: 10.1177/00207020221096215
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A lost opportunity of a grand
bargain: Security architecture
between NATO and Russia
Sumantra Maitra
Center for the National Interest, Washington DC, United States of America
Abstract
Ukraine is existential to Russia, but peripheral to American interests. The “escalation
dominance”advantage is with Moscow, and no amount of military aid or economic coercion,
shortofanactualwar,willdeterMoscow,given the asymmetry of interests and differing
threat perceptions. American public opinion remains firmly opposed to risking a potential
great power war. That said, a Ukraine—if it exists as a state after the war—at peace with its
neighbours is in everyone’s interest, as is a decreased risk of a great power conflict. This
policy brief identifies some confidence-building measures that might, in a similar situation in
the future, result in a more realist grand bargain. A potential war might be a short punitive
campaign by Russia, in which case the central thesis of this policy brief, a neutral zone in
Ukraine, will remain intact. It might also be a war of occupation and conquest, in which case
this paper might be considered a study in a counterfactual history of what could have been.
Keywords
realism, Russia, NATO, United States, EU, Canada, UK, grand-bargain, security
dilemma, escalation dominance, Ukraine, Europe
“Russia would counter-escalate, taking away any temporary benefit Kiev might get from
American arms,”John Mearsheimer wrote in 2015, adding that “[g]reat powers react
harshly when distant rivals project military power into their neighborhood, much less
attempt to make a country on their border an ally. This is why the United States has the
Monroe Doctrine. …Russiaisnoexceptioninthisregard.”
1
As Kyiv and other cities are
Corresponding author:
Dr Sumantra Maitra, Center for the National Interest, 1025 Connecticut Avenue NW, Suite 1200,
Washington, DC 20036, United States of America.
Email: smaitra@cftni.org
1
John J. Mearsheimer, “Don’t arm Ukraine,”The New York Times, 8 February 2015.
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