A multi-level, time-series network analysis of the impact of youth peacebuilding on quality peace

Published date15 April 2022
Date15 April 2022
Subject MatterHealth & social care,Criminology & forensic psychology,Aggression,conflict & peace,Sociology,Gender studies,Gender violence,Political sociology,policy & social change,Social conflicts,War/peace
AuthorLaura K. Taylor,Celia Bähr
A multi-level, time-series network analysis
of the impact of youth peacebuilding on
quality peace
Laura K. Taylor and Celia Bähr
Purpose Over 60% of armed conflicts re-occur; the seed of future conflict is sown even as a peace
agreement is signed. The cyclical nature of war calls for a focus on youth who can disrupt this pattern
over time. Addressing thisconcern, the developmental peace-building model calls for a dynamic,multi-
level and longitudinal approach. Using an innovativestatistical approach, this study aims to investigate
the associationsamong four youth peace-buildingdimensions and quality peace.
Design/methodology/approach Multi-level time-seriesnetwork analysis of a data set containing 193
countries and spanning the years between 2011 and 2020 was performed. This statistical approach
allows for complex modelling that can reveal new patterns of how different youth peace-building
dimensions (i.e. education, engagement, information, inclusion), identified through rapid evidence
assessment, promotequality peace over time. Such a methodology not only assesses between-country
differencesbut also within-country change.
Findings While the within-country contemporaneous network shows positive links for education, the
temporal networkshows significant lagged effectsfor all four dimensions on quality peace. Thebetween-
country networkindicates significant directeffects of education and information,on average, and indirect
effectsof inclusion and engagement, on quality peace.
Originality/value This approach demonstrates a novel application of multi-level time-series network
analysis to explore the dynamic development of quality peace, capturing both stability and change. The
analysis illustrates how youth peace-building dimensions impact quality peace in the macro-system globally.
This investigation of quality peace thus illustratesthat the science of peace does not necessitate violent conflict.
Keywords Youth peacebuilding, Quality peace, Education, Engagement, Information, Inclusion,
Developmental peace-building model, Time-series network analysis
Paper type Research paper
This paper does not ask how to protect 1.8 billion children in conflict-affected countries (Østby
et al., 2018a,2018b). Instead, we show how youth one-third of the world’s population (World
Bank, 2017)can build peace. Building on the Developmental Peace-building Model (DPM)
(Taylor, 2020), the paper explores how youth peacebuilding can change the macro-system;
more specifically, how it can advance quality peace. To do so, the paper will first define
quality peace and youth peacebuilding, followed by an inter-disciplinary rapid evidence
assessment. On this foundation, we will present the DPM, which outlines the ways that youth
contribute to quality peace through relational, structural and cultural change. We then review
existing empirical studies that support the DPM at the relational and structural levels and
present preliminary data on the potential impact of youth peacebuilding on quality peace at
the macro-system level over time. As a recent statistical advance, this analysis allows for
complex modelling and enables novel insights into the temporality of youth peacebuilding. We
conclude with future research steps based on this preliminary evidence.
Laura K. Taylor is based at
the Department of
Psychology, University
College Dublin, Dublin,
Ireland. Celia Ba
¨hr is based
at the Department of
Education and Psychology,
Freie Universitat Berlin,
Berlin, Germany.
Received 9 February 2022
Revised 16 March 2022
Accepted 20 March 2022
©Laura K. Taylor and Celia
¨hr. Published by Emerald
Publishing Limited. This article
is published under the Creative
Commons Attribution (CC BY
4.0) licence. Anyone may
reproduce, distribute, translate
and create derivative works of
this article (for both commercial
and non-commercial
purposes), subject to full
attribution to the original
publication and authors. The
full terms of this licence may be
seen at http://creativecom-
Initial phases of this research
were supported by Enterprise
Ireland (R21020 to Taylor),
which also partially funded
Deirdre Moran’s contributions.
Authors would also like to thank
research assistants Murray
Kennedy and Paula Donnelly,
as well as the statistical support
from Robert Moulder.
DOI 10.1108/JACPR-02-2022-0685 VOL. 15 NO. 2 2023, pp. 109-123, Emerald Publishing Limited, ISSN 1759-6599 jJOURNAL OF AGGRESSION, CONFLICT AND PEACE RESEARCH jPAGE 109

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