Near-repeat burglary patterns in Malmö: Stability and change over time
| Author | Laura Hoppe,Manne Gerell |
| Published date | 01 January 2019 |
| Date | 01 January 2019 |
| DOI | http://doi.org/10.1177/1477370817751382 |
| Subject Matter | Articles |
https://doi.org/10.1177/1477370817751382
European Journal of Criminology
2019, Vol. 16(1) 3 –17
© The Author(s) 2018
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DOI: 10.1177/1477370817751382
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Near-repeat burglary
patterns in Malmö: Stability
and change over time
Laura Hoppe
Department of Criminology, Malmö University, SE-205 06 Malmö, Sweden
Manne Gerell
Department of Criminology, Malmö University, SE-205 06 Malmö, Sweden
Abstract
It is well established that previous crime events are valuable indicators for the prediction of future
crime. Near-repeat burglaries are incidents that occur in close proximity in space and time to an
initial burglary. The current study analyses near-repeat victimization patterns in Malmö, Sweden’s
third-largest city. The data, provided by the local police, cover a six-year time frame from 2009 to
2014. The complete dataset, as well as each year’s individual dataset, was analysed using Ratcliffe’s
Near Repeat Calculator version 1.3. Results reveal significant near-repeat victimization patterns.
For the full dataset, an observed/expected ratio of 2.83 was identified for the first week after an
initial incident and an area of 100 metres surrounding the original burglary. Separate analyses of
each individual year reveal both similarities and differences between years. Some years manifest
near-repeat patterns at longer spatial and temporal distances, indicating a need for further studies
on the variability of near repeats. Preventive strategies that include both private and public actors
need to be intensified and focused on the first two weeks after a burglary.
Keywords
Burglary, burglary prevention strategies, crime mapping, near-repeat victimization,
spatiotemporal crime patterns
Introduction
Burglary has been described as a crime that has a powerful impact on its victims (Mawby
et al., 1999). Burglary rates have declined slightly (Stepanek, 2011), but in Sweden the
Corresponding author:
Laura Hoppe, Department of Criminology, Malmö University, Jan Waldenströms gata 25, 21421 Malmö,
Malmö, SE-205 06, Sweden.
Email: laurahoppe0201@gmail.com
751382EUC0010.1177/1477370817751382European Journal of CriminologyHoppe and Gerell
research-article2018
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