Negative surprise in UN Security Council authorization: Do the UK and French vetoes influence the general public’s support of US military action?
| Author | Naoko Matsumura,Atsushi Tago |
| Published date | 01 May 2019 |
| Date | 01 May 2019 |
| DOI | http://doi.org/10.1177/0022343318809786 |
| Subject Matter | Regular Articles |
Negative surprise in UN Security
Council authorization: Do the UK and
French vetoes influence the general public’s
support of US military action?
Naoko Matsumura
Graduate School of Law, Kobe University
Atsushi Tago
School of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University; Graduate School of Law, Kobe University &
Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO)
Abstract
Authorization of the use of force by the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) is believed to increase levels
of public support for military action. While scholars have performed sterling research both in theory and
empirics on the power of UNSC authorization, there is still much that we do not understand. In particular,
we believe that it is necessary to conduct a further study on ‘failed’ authorization cases. As Terrence Chapman
points out in his theoretical framework, the general public can derive valuable information based on which of the
permanent members of the Council casts a veto; this in turn affects public attitudes towards the use of force. An
expected veto cast by the perpetual nay-sayer would not serve as information for the general public. However, if
the veto is cast by an allied state of a proposer of the authorizing resolution, the negative vote functions as an
information short-cut signaling that the use of force presents a variety of problems, thus reducing public support
for the military action. Using online survey experiments, we find supportive evidenceforthisargument.Our
data also suggest that surprising negative information changes the perceptions of legitimacy, legality, public
goods, and US interest in a proposed military action, but is unrelated to the perception of costs, casualties
or duration.
Keywords
failed authorization, public opinion, surprise veto, UN Security Council authorization
Introduction
Authorization of the use of force by international orga-
nizations (IOs), such as the United Nations Security
Council (UNSC; hereafter, Council), is believed to posi-
tively affect how people regard military action. Once the
Council gives its approval, the public is believed to give
higher levels of support for such military action. In fact,
as the contrast between the 1990–91 Persian Gulf War
and 2003 Iraq War suggests (Thompson, 2006, 2009),
US uses of force which were authorized by the UNSC
received significantly higher levels of support from the
general public than unauthorized uses. The effects are
empirically confirmed both within countries initiating
and leading the use of force, like the United States of
America (USA), and in ‘third-party’ countries like the
United Kingdom (UK) and Japan (Chapman, 2007,
2011; Johns & Davies, 2014; Fang, 2008; Grieco
Corresponding author:
tago@waseda.jp
Journal of Peace Research
2019, Vol. 56(3) 395–409
ªThe Author(s) 2019
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DOI: 10.1177/0022343318809786
journals.sagepub.com/home/jpr
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