A New Cold War? Reflections of a Russian Diplomat
| Author | Nikolai Sokov |
| Published date | 01 December 1994 |
| Date | 01 December 1994 |
| DOI | http://doi.org/10.1177/002070209404900408 |
| Subject Matter | Comment & Opinion |
NIKOLAI
SOKOV
$ f
A
new
cold
war?
&oifon
Reflections
of
a
Russian
diplomat
The
Cold
War
is
over
but
the
feeling
of
uneasiness does
not
go
away.
War
in
Europe
is
more
remote
today
than
ever
but
the
absence
of
war
does
not
mean the absence
of
dangerous
con-
flict.
A
stable
framework
which
might
eliminate
conflict
remains
elusive.
Instead,
there
is
a
competition
between
the
trends
which
might
lead
towards
such
a
framework
and
the
trends
which
move
in
the
opposite
direction.
At
the
root
of
this
competition
is
the
propensity
of
both
the
East
and
the
West
to
pursue
foreign
policy
behaviour
which
is
best
captured
by
the
Realist
theory
of
international
relations
-
to
treat the
world
as
a
dangerous
place
where
external
threats
never
go
away
and
to
seek
security in
power
and
alliances.
These
impulses
generate
standard,
centuries-old
responses
to
the new
and different
challenges
of
the
post-Cold
War
world.
If
an
expansion of
the
North
Atlantic
Treaty
Organization
(NATO)
eastward
is
possible, it
will
be
done.
If
turning
the
Common-
wealth
of
Independent
States
(cis)
into
a
cohesive
military
alli-
ance
is
possible,
Russia
will
not
forgo
the
chance.
That
these
policies make
a
new division
of
Europe
more
likely
does
not
seem
to
worry
governments
too
much:
the
Realist
approach
always
looks
prudent
and
safe
domestically; voters
may
misun-
The
author,
currently
at
the
Institute
for
Social
Research,
University
of
Michi-
gan, Ann Arbor,
is
on
leave
of
absence
from
Russia's Ministry
of
Foreign
Affairs.
This
essay
grows
out of
a
larger
programme
of
research
which
is
supported
by
the
John
D.
and Catherine
T.
MacArthur
Foundation.
The
views
in
this
article
are
those
of
the
author
alone and
do
not
reflect
those
of
any govern-
mental
or
non-governmental
organization.
InternationalJournalXLIX
AUTUMN
1994
REFLECTIONS
OF
A
RUSSIAN
DIPLOMAT
909
derstand
a
more
creative
policy.
This
essay
will
explore
the
pol-
icies
which
could
give
rise
to
a
new
cold
war
and
the
ways
in
which
such
an
outcome
can
be
averted.
I
The
first
question
to
ask
is
what
the
Cold
War
was
about;
the
second,
how
do
we
know
that
it
has
ended;
and
the
third,
how
do
we
recognize
the
signs
of
a
new
cold
war?
A
cold
war
is
usually
understood
as
a
situation
in
which
two
almost
equal
superpowers,
and their
alliances,
face
each
other
in
an
ideolog-
ical
conflict.
Today,
Russia
is
vastly
inferior
to
the
United
States,
and
ideological
conflict
between
them
is
absent.
Does
that
mean
that
the
Cold
War has
been
left
behind
for
good?
Hardly.
Rather,
the traditional
image
of
a
cold
war
needs
to
be
reap-
praised
if
we
are
to
understand
the
perils
of
the
post-Cold
War
world.
To
start
this
reassessment,
it
must
be
acknowledged
that
dif-
ferences
in
the
ideological,
political,
and
economic
systems
of
states
do
not
necessarily
lead
to
a
cold
war.
In
the
nineteenth
century,
the
differences
between democracies
and
monarchies
did
not
preclude
alliances
between
them
any
more
than
similar
systems
of
governance
precluded
wars
between
states.
In the
period
between
the
two
world
wars,
there
was
a
form
of
con-
tainment of
socialism
in
the
Soviet
Union
but
the
situation
as
a
whole
could
not
be
classified
as
a
cold
war.
After
all,
the
exis-
tence
of
a
communist
regime
in
China
today
does
not
affect
our
perception
that
the
Cold
War
is
over:
communism
and
cold
war
are
less
tightly
connected
than
is
usually
assumed.
Nor
does
equality
of
power
or
even
of
military
potential
seem
to
be
a
defining
characteristic
of
a
cold
war.
Several
inde-
pendent
calculations
of
the
distribution
of
power
during
the
Cold
War
point
to
the conclusion
that
not
even
rough equality
ever
existed between
the superpowers.
Using
an
aggregate
indi-
cator
of
power,
Peter
Beckman
gave
the
United
States
in
1947
the
score
of
53
(out
of
ioo)
with
the
Soviet
Union
a
distant
second
at
9.
By
1957,
the
United
States
scored
41
while
the
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