Number Games*
| DOI | 10.1350/jcla.2007.71.3.181 |
| Published date | 01 May 2007 |
| Date | 01 May 2007 |
| Author | David Kirk |
| Subject Matter | Opinion |
OPINION
Number Games*
David Kirk
Director, Fraud Prosecution Service
In 1348 Pope Benedict XII ordered his officials to find out how many
people had been killed by the Black Death. The officials no doubt left a
decent interval before they responded that the Black Death had cost the
lives of 42,836,486 throughout the world, and losses in Germany were
estimated at 1,244,434.1
In the 21st century, even with all the information-gathering processes
at our disposal, we would not generally expect this level of precision.
The exact level of the loss of life in the 2004 tsunami, for example, will
never be known because of the lack of records in some remote areas.
Nevertheless, rough estimates will be produced, rounded up or down to
the nearest one hundred thousand, and published in the media to create
a sensation of shock and awe.
Both approaches to the numbers game intend to convey the same
meaning: in mediaeval terms, no one understood the figures produced
by Pope Benedict XII’s officials to mean that this precise number of
people had died: what the Vatican officials’ precise figures, and the
round figures produced for the tsunami dead, both meant was that an
awful lot of people had died. Because the numbers are unverifiable2they
can be manipulated according to the needs of the researcher. Benedict
XII’s reason for inquiring about the death toll is not clear. It may have
been simple curiosity, or there may have been some ulterior motive. Our
desire to know how many were killed by the tidal wave might in some
way derive from the thought that if we have enough information we are
still in control of the forces of nature.
Three reports published in early 2007, one by the RSA on illegal
drugs,3one by ACPO on fraud,4and the other by HMCPSI and HMIC on
rape5arguably show that criminal statistics have a similar purpose.
The UN Office on Drugs and Crime’s best estimate of the value of the
illegal drugs market in 2003 was $13 billion (production), $94 billion
* The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily
reflect the views of the Crown Prosecution Service or the Journal of Criminal Law.
1 P. Zeigler, The Black Death (Sutton Publishing: 1997).
2 Zeigler attempted to estimate death rates in Europe using various methods, but was
unable to be more specific than to conclude that between a quarter and a third of
the population of Europe died in the Black Death visitation in the mid-14th
century.
3 RSA Commission, Drugs—Facing Facts: The Report of the RSA Commission on Illegal
Drugs, Communities and Public Policy, 8 March 2007, 39, available at www.rsa.org.uk/
projects/drugs.asp, accessed 14 March 2007.
4 ACPO, The Nature, Extent and Economic Impact of Fraud in the UK, February 2007,
available at www.acpo.police.uk, accessed 14 March 2007, hereafter ‘Fraud Review’.
5Without Consent: An HMPCSI and HMIC Thematic Report, January 2007, available at
http://inspectorates.homeoffice.gov.uk/hmic/inspect_reports1/thematic-inspections/
wc-thematic/, accessed 14 March 2007.
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