On Babies and Bathwater: A Comment on Evans' ‘Economics and Politics Revisited’
| Date | 01 December 1999 |
| Author | David Sanders,Ron Johnston,Charles Pattie |
| Published date | 01 December 1999 |
| DOI | 10.1111/1467-9248.00238 |
| Subject Matter | Article |
On Babies and Bathwater: a Comment on
Evans' `Economics and Politics Revisited'
CHARLES PATTIE1
University of Sheeld
RON JOHNSTON
University of Bristol
AND DAVID SANDERS
University of Essex
Economic voting models have been one of the apparent `success stories' of
recent work on electoral behaviour. An intuitively appealing theory ± that
voters evaluate governments on their ability (whether perceived or actual) to
generate prosperity ± has been matched, in some democracies at least, by
seemingly impressive supporting empirical evidence.2Whether based on
aggregate time series,3on cross-sectional surveys,4or on constituency level
economic indicators,5most studies tell a basically similar story. Voters, it seems,
reward governments by supporting them if they can see signs that the economy
has remained healthy and their living standards have improved, but they punish
them by withdrawing support if they think the economy is in trouble. For some
analysts, objective economic indicators (unemployment rates, in¯ation levels,
#Political Studies Association 1999. Published by Blackwell Publishers, 108 CowleyRoad, Oxford OX4 1JF, UK and 350 Main
Street, Malden, MA 02148, USA.
Political Studies (1999), XLVII, 918±932
1The analyses reported here employ data from the 1992±97 British Election Panel Study. The
survey was conducted by the Centre for Research into Elections and Social Trends (CREST), and
was made available to us by the ESRC Data Archive at the University of Essex. We aregrateful to
both bodies. Neither is responsible for the analyses reported in the paper, however.
2See, for instance, M. Lewis-Beck, Economics and Elections: the Major Western Democracies
(Ann Arbor, University of Michigan Press, 1988).
3For example, D. Sanders, `Government popularity and the next general election', Political
Quarterly, 62 (1991), 235±61; D. Sanders, `Economic performance, management competence and
the outcome of the next general election', Political Studies, 44 (1996), 203±31; H. D. Clarke, M. C.
Stewart and P. F. Whiteley, `New models for New Labour: the political economy of Labour party
support, January 1992±April 1997', American Political Science Review 92 (1998), 559±75.
4C. J. Pattie and R. J. Johnston, `It's not like thatround here: region, economic evaluations and
voting at the 1992 British General Election', European Journal of Political Research, 28 (1995), 1±
32; C. J. Pattie, D. Dorling and R. J. Johnston, `The electoral politics of recession: local economic
conditions, public perceptions and the economic vote in the 1992 British General Election',
Transactions, Instituteof British Geographers, NS 22 (1997), 147±61; R. J. Johnston and C. J. Pattie,
`Feeling good and changing one's mind: a longitudinal investigation of voters' economic
evaluations and partisan choices', Party Politics, 5 (1999), 39±54.
5For example, J. R. Owens and L. L. Wade, `Economic conditions and constituency voting in
Britain', Political Studies, 36 (1988), 30±51; C. J. Pattie, D. Dorling and R. J. Johnston, `A debt-
owing democracy: the political impact of housing market recession at the British General Election
of 1992', Urban Studies, 32 (1995), 1293±1315.
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